The Politics of the 2024 Minnesota Legislative Session

            The DFL party in Minnesota has a trifecta. In 2023, they used that political Trifecta to go big

before they went home. With a $17 billion plus surplus, they had the money to enact and support all types of pet projects that they've been wanting to push for years. Such projects blew through the surplus and committed the state to structural increases in spending for years to come. Additionally, they used their Trifecta to push social legislation, including for abortion and other matters that were of interest to their constituents, especially the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.

            But the politics and the constraints of the 2024 session are different.

The most recent fiscal forecast indicates while there is a surplus this biennium there'll be structural deficits in the future.  While that should be a note of caution for the Democrats, not to go on a spending spree. There are also many who view perhaps 2024 as a last opportunity.

While the Minnesota Senate is not up for reelection, the House is and there is a possibility that it  could fall to Republican control.  If it were to do so, the Democrats would lose their Trifecta and their ability to be able to do what they want in terms of fiscal spending or articulating their policy agenda.

For some then this means go big and go home again. Use the 2024 session as perhaps the last hurrah to enact future spending programs that will further the Democratic agenda and commit the State to specific programs.

On the other hand, assuming the Democrats hold control of the House, they will again have the trifecta in 2025, facing that structural deficit that they were warned about.  The dilemma—spend  or save now with the implications for how it plays out  waiting until 2025.

In 2024 the Trifecta was also the product of the political interest and alignment of the Governor, Senate, and House.  That same alignment does not exist this year. When looking at the interests of the House, the Senate and the governor, we get very different perspectives on what they would like to do.

Governor Waltz has indicated his support for a whole host of things including an abortion amendment. He said he supports legalizing sports gambling and supports perhaps other programs.

His interest is defined in part by the fact that he is going into the second year of his second term.  Unless he plans on running for a third term and wins after this term, he goes into lame duck status. In many ways for Waltz, this may be his last term to define his legacy, especially at a time when he fancies himself perhaps a future presidential candidate.

In the House Speaker Hortman’s  interests and her instincts are to make this a quick legislative session. Do perhaps the bonding bill and clean up some of the legislation from last time. But don't commit to new spending. Don't commit to any social legislation.

But she faces pressures from her Progressive Caucus to do both. And if she's able to impose fiscal restraint upon the Democrats, that will make it even harder for her to impose restraint upon the pushing of social programs. A tradeoff is certain to be made there.

In the Senate Kari Dziedzic was  skilled in the 2023 session in holding the Democrats together with the 34-33 majority.  She is no longer the Majority Leader, replaced by Erin Murphy, whose instincts take her further to the left, as opposed to restraining the impulses of the left wing of the party. Several years ago, she ran for governor as the progressive candidate, only to lose to Waltz in the primary.

The Senate is not up for election.  It faces different political pressures compared to the House in that it may not fear voter retribution. Murphy still would like to be governor and views this position as Majority Leader as perhaps as a springboard for that ambition. She faces the likely opposition from Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan. Both would be vying for support, trying to define themselves as the left candidates.  Were Murphy to caution fiscal restraint and restraint on pushing social issues in the Senate, she might cede the left to Peggy Flanagan, making it more difficult for her perhaps to be nominated in 2024 if she were to run for governor.  Pressures from her progressive wing and her natural instincts drive Murphy  to perhaps outflanking Peggy Flanagan on the left may make it difficult for her to be able to resist the push among some to move the Democratic Party further to the left.

In  2024 there is a different set of politics, with different personal ambitions among the governor, the Speaker of the House, and the Majority Leader in the Senate.  Even though in theory, there is still a trifecta, the interests of these three persons and the two different chambers offer a very different political dynamic than there was last year.