Showing posts with label Israel. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Israel. Show all posts

Saturday, May 11, 2024

Campus Protests and the Corporate University

 

This blog originally appeared in Counterpunch.


The murder of the four students who protested the Vietnam War at Kent State University on May 4, 1970, was a tragedy.  The suppression of student protests on campuses across the United States in the spring of 2024 is a farce. The latter points to how little college administrators and politicians have learned when it comes to students’ speech, thinking that repression is the solution for dissent and disagreement.

The student protests of the 1960s were born of political anger. Students were unable to vote. They lacked a political voice in American elections and politics, and they lacked a voice in the governance of their schools. They demanded a seat at the table, the right to be heard and some control over the institutions that literally dictated their lives. Their demands for a voice were met with force and repression much in the same way that the civil rights demonstrators who crossed the Edmund Pettus Bridge  were.

College administrators first ignored student demands.  Then they sought to break up the demonstrations with campus police.  Politicians such as Governor Reagan in California, and Governor Rhodes in Ohio responded even more forcefully. They, along with President Richard Nixon, sought to capitalize on the protests politically and personally. They made political careers by running against challenges to authority, campaigning  as law and order candidates, claiming to speak for the silent majority, and labeling those who dissented as un-American.

A show of force was their solution across college campuses in America.  Eventually they called out the National Guard. The tragic result culminated in Kent State. Four Dead in Ohio as sung by Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young.

Colleges and politicians should have learned the lessons of this mistake.  The lesson should have been that student voices matter, that students have a right to express their views, and  force is not a way to stifle or to address differences of opinion.

They should have also learned that universities are supposed to be socially responsible. They are or have become political institutions, not private corporations. They are socially responsible in the sense that they have responsibility to act ethically and act consistent with their values. Their values include free and open inquiry, disagreement, and debate.  They need to be responsible to their stakeholders, including their students, and they need to live up to the democratic ideals and values that they are supposed to be fostering.

But what we learned in the 1960s was that schools were also hotbeds of hypocrisy. That was the source of much of the campus unrest and protest in the 1960s.  Instead of fixing the hypocrisy, living  up to their values, and respecting student demands, higher education turned corporate.  Over a fifty year period schools thought they had learned how to address the dissent on campus. They adopted even more of a corporate structure, seeking a top down mechanism for trying to control curriculum, faculty, and students. They adopted speech and civility codes as a way not to encourage debate but as a tool to discourage views that they do not want to hear.

The corporate university turned itself into a  private good, forcing students to borrow tens of thousands of dollars and thereby discipline their behavior by the demands of the economic marketplace.  Moreover, the corporate university  created its own problem by not being neutral when it came to a diversity of viewpoints, favoring some as opposed to others. It created not a tolerance but an intolerance of certain types of speech. Moreover, as universities have become even more corporate they have built lofty endowments whose investments are oftentimes questionable and which gives donors  outsized influence upon  what administrators and professors can do.

Much in the same way that the students of the 60s criticized universities for the defense contracts they took and how universities furthered the Vietnam War, students today criticize endowments for supporting causes and issues of which they do not support.  They have legitimate grievances against both the US government’s support for a war they do not endorse, and also against universities  whom they see as complicit. They demand a voice, call for disinvestment, or simply want to express their disagreement.

Yet again politicians such as Donald Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson are denouncing the protests, calling for the National Guard to quell student  speech.  Yet again a sitting president seems unable or unwilling to  listen to the students.  Yet again another war will impact a presidential campaign.

This is more than a tragedy.  It is a farce.

Sunday, February 18, 2024

Black Swans, unknown unknowns, and October surprises

 Black Swans, unknown unknowns, and October surprises.  These are the names of factors that could change the course of the 2024 presidential election.  And we may not even know what they are


According to political scientists there are models that predict winners in presidential elections. These models generally look at presidential approval rating and public attitudes towards the economy in the second quarter of an election year.  We know this based on past or “normal” elections. However, the 2024 election cycle is like no other election cycle in American history. There are a whole host of black swans, unknown unknowns, and potential October surprises that could change the course of the election. These are variables that we have not seen previously in presidential elections or events whose course could evolve and change in ways to impact the election.

 

What might be some of these unknown unknowns?   Here are ten possibilities.

 

Will Trump stand trial and be convicted of any crimes before the 2024 election? Going into the election, Donald Trump faces four criminal trials and 91 criminal indictments. His base is with him. However, the battle is for those few swing voters in those five or six swing states that will decide the election.   It is perhaps less than 150,000 voters. Polls indicate that among those swing or independent voters, a Trump conviction could sway and alter their vote, perhaps throwing the election to Joe Biden. If and when those trials occur, we do not know and their timing could very well affect the election.

 

Will the US Supreme Court allow the use of the insurrection clause to remove Trump from the ballot? The insurrection clause was drafted to address problems following the Civil War and to keep members of the Confederacy from serving in office.  States such as Colorado as well as many others are trying to use the insurrection clause as a way of keeping Donald Trump off the ballot. The Supreme Court will shortly be deciding whether or not that clause can be used for that purpose.

 

How will the conflicts in the Middle East Ukraine and possibly tensions with China in North Korea impact the election?   Matters of foreign affairs are always unpredictable. We don't know at this point if the evolution of the Middle East conflict could drag the United States into a full blown war. We don't know how the future progress of a Russian Ukraine fight will evolve. And while the US is distracted by the Middle East and Ukraine, will China or North Korea use this as an opportunity to make moves on Taiwan or to extend their zone of influence in Asia? Any in all of these variables matters of war and peace could impact the election.

 

What will happen to inflation at the gas pump or the grocery store?  The economy is always one of the biggest variables in an election. Last year with inflation running high, presidential approval for Biden was sinking.  Right now, inflation seems to be subsiding. The economy is doing well. However, gas prices are going up again. Inflation has not brought down the price of groceries. Will Americans continue to be disgruntled about the economy? And how will it evolve over the next few months and especially in the closing days of the election? With that, how might international conflict especially in the Middle East also impact gas prices?

 

Will young people or people of color show up and vote in 2024?  People of color and young people (under the age of thirty) showed up to vote in record numbers in 2020. Biden needs that record turnout again to be able to win. He also needs women to show up and to vote for him much in the same way that they showed up for him in 2020 and how they showed up for Democrats in 2022.  Enthusiasm for Biden is not great. What motivated these voters four years ago was opposition to Trump.  Can Biden find a key to get these voters to show up and vote for him, especially in those critical swing states?

 

Will abortion continue to be a major issue, especially for college educated women in 2024? What college educated suburban women do determines the outcome of elections.  If they show up, Democrats do well if they stay home Republicans do well. These women stayed home in 2016. They showed up in 2018, 2020, and 2022. They showed up mostly concerned about reproductive rights issues and the Democrats did well. Will they be motivated this year to show up and vote and  will abortion still be the issue?

 

Will the border crisis change in 2024? Donald Trump is running on the issue of the border crisis. Biden's reelection could very well rest upon whether Congress reaches a deal on securing the southern border and on public’s perceptions regarding how well the Biden administration is addressing the immigration issue.

 

Will there be any Supreme Court decisions in 2024 that could impact the election? Back in 2022, it was abortion and the repeal of Roe vs. Wade that changed the trajectory of the midterm elections. Could there be a similar vote this year such as on presidential immunity from prosecution or  the insurrection clause? Or could there be some other Supreme Court vote that suddenly grips America's attention and mobilizes voters?

 

Will there be any health problems that impact the 2024 presidential candidates? Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden are elderly candidates. It is not inconceivable that health problems by one or both of them could impact the election. The recent special counsel report on Joe Biden painted a devastating picture of his mental health. But what if one or both of the candidates is taken ill and has to leave the race and has to be replaced. How might that affect the trajectory of the election?

 

What is the Taylor Swift impact? Could Taylor Swift influence the impact of the 2024 election by her decision to endorse Joe Biden? Would it be enough to motivate her supporters, younger women, many of them who don't otherwise vote, and could that change the course of the election, especially in those critical swing states?

 

Overall, any or all of these factors could be the black swans, the unknown unknowns, or the October surprise that changes the course of the presidential election in 2024. 

Sunday, December 10, 2023

Prickly Questions of International Law Amid the Gaza War

 This blog originally appeared in the International Policy Digest.

The war in Gaza presents a problem for international politics. But it also poses problems for international law. Specifically, if we were to evaluate the events that have transpired since October 7, from the perspective of international law to assess the legality of actions and determine liability, many questions need to be addressed foremost among those, whether the events here rise to a level that could be adjudicated in some international forum, such as the International Court of Justice (ICJ) or the International Criminal Court (ICC).

The most complicated of all factors is about the status of Gaza—is it a state or not? The entire framework of post-1945 international law is premised upon a state-centric model. By that, nation-states or countries are the principal if not the sole actors in international public law. The United Nations is premised upon states as members of, not individuals or ethnic groups, for example. Non-governmental actors (NGOS) are not members of the UN, nor is the European Union, despite how important they are internationally.

Hamas is a terror group, not a state, and its legal standing under international law is unclear. The Gaza Strip, Jerusalem, and the West Bank are Palestinian territories. The Palestinian Liberation Organization proclaimed their territories a state in 1988. Palestine is recognized as a sovereign state by 138 of the 193 UN member states, but it is not a United Nations member itself. But neither Israel nor the U.S. recognizes it as a separate sovereign state, even though there is still lip service given to the idea of a two-state solution. While Gaza has some limited control and autonomy, it is effectively under the control of Israel.

On the one hand then, if Gaza is not a separate state, how does one characterize the attack against Israel by Hamas? The simple answer is that all the attacks were criminal acts and should be treated as such. This means the appropriate reaction by the Israeli government should have been to follow domestic criminal law, searching out the suspects who committed the crimes, prosecuting them, and putting them on trial. Israel instead chose an alternative approach and according to Gaza health officials, over 17,000 civilians, mostly women and children, have been killed as a result.

Instead, Israel formally declared war against Hamas. Under international law, one state cannot declare war against a non-state, let alone a group of individuals. First, aggression by states against another is supposed to be illegal against other states according to the 1928 Kellogg-Briand Pact, the UN Charter, and a 1974 UN resolution defining aggression. Second, while self-defense is recognized as legitimate by the UN Charter, the International Court of Justice has declared in a 2004 advisory opinion that states may not use force as a form of self-defense against non-state actors.

As far as international law is concerned, Israel’s war declaration and response are problematic. A formal declaration of war by Israel is tantamount to recognition of Gaza as a separate sovereign state against which it may be justified to use force as a form of self-defense. On the contrary, if Gaza is not a separate state but part of Israel, then its actions may violate international law.

No one should think what Hamas did was justified regardless of Israel’s policies in the Occupied Territories. However, with that said, how Israel treats Palestinians is possibly a form of genocide under international convention, or at the very least, it violates other international conventions such as the 1966 International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. Israel is a signatory to these treaties. Legal action to determine if Israel violated either should have been brought before the ICJ.

But assume that Gaza is a state. Israel does have a right to self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter. Still, international law encourages peaceful means to resolve conflicts, or at the very least, to use international tribunals to resolve disputes. One option is the International Criminal Court. Unfortunately, neither Palestine nor Israel recognizes its jurisdiction, thereby foreclosing or at least limiting that as an option to hold either Hamas or, as some claim, Israeli officials such as Benjamin Netanyahu responsible for possible war crimes.

Moreover, if Palestine is a state, there are questions regarding whether Israel’s use of self-defense is legal. Self-defense is limited to proportionality, and it cannot take on actions that might amount to genocide, in violation of the 1972 convention. These are questions that are proper matters for the ICJ to address.

It is possible that the ICJ could be involved in other ways too. The UN General Assembly has requested an advisory opinion from the ICJ, which is currently before the Court. Hamas and the Palestinian state should have waited for this advisory opinion. It is also possible that the current conflict could be brought to the Court, but the authority of the ICJ could be complicated by the issue of statehood.

However, for many, the argument will be that turning to these international forums is futile. On the one hand, Israel has arguably violated international law with impunity over the years when it comes to the Palestinians, and despite repeated UN resolutions little has changed or been accomplished to resolve the disputes that led up to the events of October 7. There is a lot of truth to many of these claims and this begs the question of whether the current regime of international law can resolve the conflict that started on October 7 if it failed to resolve the disputes that led up to it.

Monday, March 12, 2012

“It’s the gas prices stupid.” Oil and the Fate of the Obama Presidency

“It’s the gas prices stupid.” Perhaps this is the new mantra that David Plouffe should have posted in the Obama re-election headquarters, updating the famous “It’s the economy stupid” that James Carville coined for Bill Clinton’s presidential campaign in 1992. Yet unlike in 1992 when that saying and strategy slew a sitting incumbent, Obama should worry that the tables could be turned on him and gas prices could doom his bid for a second term.

In a recent Washington Post poll rising gas prices are sinking Barack Obama.  According to the poll, his disapproval rating is 50% with disapproval of his handling gas prices at 65%. Overall disapproval on the handling of the economy is at 59%. All of these numbers are increases in the last few weeks after economic good news had steadily helped him politically.

Confirming the salience of gas prices were exit polls in Ohio last week dramatically demonstrating the worry and concern in that swing state among many, including the crucial swing voters.

But there is a particular and vexing problem for Obama with rising gas prices that suggests that he has few options to insulate himself.

Think about reasons for rising gas prices. They include speculation over Iran and whether Israel will bomb Tehran’s potential atomic capabilities. There is also the decision by Iran not to sell oil to some countries in response to an embargo against it. There is also rising demand for oil across the world as the economy improves, and there are also some shutdowns in refineries for a variety of reasons that remain dubious and perhaps monopolistic.

Obama wants to pressure Iran regarding its nuclear capabilities. The more it does that the more that invites oil price speculation. Second, Israel increasingly fears a nuclear Iran and is rumored to want to bomb its facilities. If it does that then expect oil prices to skyrocket. Last week when Prime Minister Netanyahu visited the United States he appealed to Obama to support them in a possible bombing of Iran. If Obama does that, again, oil goes up. If the president does not support Israel then he runs the risk of alienating Jewish voters, and in swing states such as Florida that could prove costly. 

Obama’s trilemma: How to contain Iran and support Israel, depress oil gas increases (which can also hurt the economy), and promote his reelection? This is not an easy feat to accomplish.

What tools does he have to address these problems? Not many. He could again open the spigot to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve similar to what he did in June 2011. However, that decision was coordinated with similar actions with allies around the world and it is not clear they will follow suit this time. Additionally the amount oil released then had minimal impact on oil prices and the same will be true when (not if, but when) Obama opens it again this year. The only issue is when he will do it. Open to early it has no lasting impact, open too late and it may have no political or economic efficacy.

Obama has to do something and he cannot look hapless. This is in part what doomed Jimmy Carter in 1980 when he did not know what to do about the Iranian Hostage crisis. Somehow Obama has to divert America’s attention away from gas prices, or convince them that the GOP have no better ideas regarding what to do (and the latter is true). However, every step along the way the Republicans will be reminding voters that “It’s the gas prices stupid.”

Obama needs advice and help. In 1992 space aliens advised Clinton on what to do about the economy, at least according to the Weekly World News. It seemed to help him then. Maybe that alien can provide Obama with some advice in 2012, instead of offering what appears to be out of this world recommendations to Gingrich and others that they can get gas to $2.50 per gallon immediately.

Sunday, January 30, 2011

Don’t Let Mubarak In! Obama’s Carter moment and what he can learn from the 1980 Iranian hostage crisis

When the inevitable occurs–Hosni Mubarak of Egypt steps down or is forced to leave–the United States and Obama should not give him asylum in this country. This would be repeating the same mistake that President Carter made with the Shah of Iran in 1979. A decision to eventually led to the taking of 52 American hostages.

Watching the events in Egypt unfold in the last few days reminds me so much of Iran in 1979 and 1980. The parallels seem so scary and similar.



1979 and the Shah of Iran
The Shah of Iran was an American ally who ran a secularist, brutal regime that was in many ways propped up by the United States. He was considered an important military and regional ally of this county and he received significant financial and military assistance from this country. However, he became increasingly despised by his people and there was a growing Islamic movement–remotely directed and inspired by Ayatollah Khomeini in exile from France.

As the pressures internally mounted against the Shah, he initially sought to crack down on the protests and suppress the Islamic movement. But when the movement began to swell and his crackdown became more severe, the United States was caught in a dilemma. Should it support the Shah and his regime in his crackdown or encourage a transition in power to something the United States could not predict? Moreover, the United States could not tolerate the repression the Shah was using to stay in power, and President Jimmy Carter, committed to an agenda and foreign policy of protecting human rights, encouraged the Shah to show restraint when dealing the demonstrators. He did, and some argue that the easing of oppression and the light response he took toward the demonstrators paved the way for his eventual ouster. From there, stuck with what to do to get the Shah out, Carter permitted him entrance into the United States for medical treatment and exile until it became clear that his residence in this country was a political liability and he was invited to exit.

Yet, in allowing the Shah to enter the United States, it made the country look like it was his puppeteer. In part the decision to let the Shah enter the US precipitated the takeover of the US embassy in Tehran and the taking of the hostages.

I remember the Iranian hostage crisis well. I was a senior in college, applying to graduate school in political science, and watched how it was the final event that perhaps doomed the Carter presidency and helped elect Reagan. Carter’s missteps, the image of a failed presidency, all were contributing forces that led to his downfall.

2010 and Mubarak of Egypt
Mubarak reminds me so much of the Shah. He took over after the assassination of Sadat and has run a brutal secular regime. He has stayed in power via rigged elections and by suppression of an opposition that includes the Islamic Brotherhood. He is an ally of the United States, receiving significant financial and military aid from the United States, in part because of a reward for negotiating peace with Israel. I think Egypt is the second largest recipient of foreign and military aid from the US (behind Israel as number one), but don’t quote me on the exact ranking. It is significant, but perhaps not number two.

The US supports Egypt in large part because of the peace deal with Israel. We need Egypt as an ally to protect Israel. It is still one of the only Middle East Arab states that recognizes the latter’s right to exist. In short, we have had a strategic interest in supporting his regime even though from Reagan to Obama it was widely recognized he was unpopular.


Now, the forces of change are ready to topple Mubarak. There is an able opposition leader in El Baradei. He is secular but there are clear news reports that the Muslim brotherhood and the religious parties are willing to support him as a leader–at least as a transitional one. The demonstrations are growing and the demands for his ouster are growing internally. It is not clear if Mubarak has control or support of the military, and today on CBS news I saw American F-1 fighter planes that we sold to Egypt buzzing the protesters as a way to intimidate them.

Also on CBS today I saw Secretary of State Clinton call for Mubarak to ease up and not crack down on the protesters, and later call for him to facilitate a democratic transition. Obama and Clinton have not yet publicly called for Mubarak to step down, but it is close. The call on Mubarak not to crack down and perhaps make other reforms is reminiscent of Carter telling the Shah not to crack down and to respond to the demands of demonstrators.

Now, I am no Middle East expert, but all of this is beginning to smell more like 1980 all over again. Obama is trapped like Carter was. Strategic interests such as support for Israel, call for us to keep Mubarak in. There is as well as fear of instability, fear of what will happen next, and perhaps the fear of another Islamic fundamentalist regime hostile to the US. But the brutal regime and a commitment to democracy, a desire to expand influence in the Middle East, and a need to recognize the inevitable are forcing Obama to want to call for his ouster and step down. Vacillating on what to do is precisely where Carter was in 1979, and that is where Obama is now.

The choices are not great, but they clearly need to expend to calling for Mubarak to step down. But what then? What if anything can the US do to facilitate democracy and maintain Egypt as an ally? El Baradei has made it clear he does not see the US as a friend and having our F-1 fly over Cairo does not reinforce a favorable view of this country. We have supported a bad dictator for too many years and it is just not clear what influence the US has going forward.

Obama's Carter Moment
But one thing is clear as Obama makes choices: Don’t let Mubarak in the US. Do nor grant him asylum. Avoid giving any sign that the US continues to support him lest we give the opposition reason to hate us even more. I hope at this point Obama is reaching out to the opposition, but in doing so will the US send other signals to other regimes that democratic reform is needed? The Middle East–first with Tunisia, Egypt, and perhaps Yemen, suggest change is in the air.

Obama is facing a Carter moment in foreign policy that could dramatically impact his presidency. How he responds not only affects American foreign policy and influence across the world, but also perhaps his prospects in 2012.

Afterthought

In 1980, as a student I read Barrington Moore Jr.’s Reflection of the Causes of Human Misery and on Certain Proposals to Eliminate Them and Injustice: The Social Bases of Obedience and Revolt. Both were brilliant books that argued, among other things, that the failure to allow for social and democratic change was one of the chief causes of human misery and injustice in the world and that too often the US was viewed as the agent that stifled change. This was true in Iran in 1979-80–rightly or wrongly–and the same may be true today in Egypt. What has the United States learned since 1979? This is a good question to ponder.