Reflections on the Future Survival of the Donald Trump Presidency

The Trump presidency has always been a rocky and contentious one, but recent and coming events will try its soul in ways that have not previously been seen.  While repeatedly some speculate that Trump will not make it to the end of his term in 2021, realistically it would take a lot to change for him to be impeached, convicted of a crime, or resign.  What forces and events will impact his presidency in the coming months?

Trump Himself

The Death of President George Herbert Walker Bush points to a significant contrast in personalities and the weakness of Donald Trump as a person.  Bush’s death provides not just a retrospective on the 41st president’s legacy, but it speaks also to the deficiencies of the Trump presidency. 

Bush’s presidency illustrates many legacies–some good  and bad–but psychological temperament and style stand out.  Bush’s career in business and government–especially the latter as CIA director, UN ambassador, member of Congress, and vice-president before becoming president–point to someone with the skills, knowledge, and experience to lead the country.  Bush’s resume was one of understanding how Washington worked. It was also a resume that demonstrated a commitment to diplomacy, knowledge-based decision making, and  a respect for the processes of government.

Bush appointed knowledgeable and competent people to serve him, he approached the world, as in the case of the first Gulf War, with a sense of multilateralism and diplomacy that starkly contrast to what Trump displays.  Additionally, Bush, unlike Trump, was willing to accept responsibility for his actions and he made choices–such as correctly breaking his no new taxes pledge–that demonstrated real leadership and a willingness to compromise.

Whether many realize it or not, the passing of Bush will only highlight so much more the deficiencies of Trump and his presidency. 

Michael Cohen and the Looming Special Prosecutor Report

Perhaps the most significant event affecting the Trump presidency took place last week when Trump’s former attorney Michael Cohen pled guilty to lying to Congress.  It was not so much the lying that was the issue, but it was what the lie was about–efforts well into June 2016 to pursue a business deal with Russia.  Why is this significant?

Central to the special prosecutor’s investigation on Russian interference with the 2016 US elections and the role that the Trump campaign had in colluding with them has been ascertaining of motive.  By that, the issue has been to try to explain why Trump and his associates may have wanted to collude with them, or why they seemed even now unwilling to take a hardline with Putin or otherwise condemn the investigation.  The simple answer is that Trump had possible economic ties then and perhaps now with Russia that he did not want to reveal and which may have then and now continue to cloud his judgments as president.

Keep in mind that Trump this week did confirm much of the details of Cohen’s confession about a Russian Trump tower deal.  This fact no longer seems in dispute.  The deal now speaks to how the Trump business empire, his campaign, and now presidency are intertwined, and how there may have been interest or motive to collude with Russians to get a better economic deal for Trump.  There is a possible quid pro quo emerging.  The Russians did not want Clinton elected, Trump wanted a business deal and perhaps a presidency, the art of the deal suggests strike a deal so that everyone gets what they want.  This quid pro quo is perhaps the core of everything which has thus far unfolded, and it goes far beyond accusations that Secretary of State Clinton extended special deals to countries and those who were donors to the Clinton Foundation.

Democratic Control of the House

Democrats taking control of the US House is significant on multiple fronts.  They will pose a policy limit on Trump, they will also be able to do many investigations and perform the oversight of the executive branch and agencies that the Republican House never was willing to do.  But House control by Democrats also closely connects to the special prosecutor’s actions.

One must also read between the lines in the Cohen plea.  It is no surprise that special prosecutor Robert Mueller knows more than the media is reporting.  One can surmise that once the Democrats take control of the House in January Mueller will be able to release a report to them, even if he is fired.  There is little chance that Mueller will indict Trump even if the evidence supports it. Instead, he will follow the March 1, 1974 Justice Department Memorandum which then referred allegations of Nixon’s criminality to the House.  The same will possibly happen here.

One can probably expect the special prosecutor to indict more individuals, especially given Cohen’s plea.  One might also see Trump pardoning many individuals such as Paul Manafort who remain  loyal to him.  But even if all this occurs, the one-two punch of a special prosecutor’s report and Democratic House control will constrain the Trump presidency even more than it has already.

Mounting Personal Lawsuits

Trump faces numerous civil lawsuits in state and federal court that will continue to dog him, and they cannot be halted by presidential pardons or judicial appointments.  These suits involve sexual harassment issues, the Trump Foundation, his business dealings and how they tie into whether he violated the Constitution’s Emolument clause, among others.  President’s cannot issue self-pardons, especially in civil matters, and his authority does not extend to state courts where he cannot control appointments to the federal bench or the Supreme Court.

 
2020 Economic Slowdown

Perhaps the biggest wild card is the economy.  The US is in the middle of one of the longest recoveries and bull markets in history.  But there are many signs that the end is coming.
Internationally, there is a slowing down of world economic growth that will affect US exports.  Also, as a globally interconnected economy, the US will be impacted by what happens elsewhere.  Rising interest rates are impacting an already slowing down housing market that seemed until recently to be overheated. 

The Trump tax cuts, according to analysts, either had little impact on economic growth–especially when most of the tax cuts were taken as profits and not reinvestments–or they have run their course.  The trade wars are beginning to impact many US sectors, including agriculture and the auto industry (as seen by GM’s plans to close facilities), and  the tightening of immigration is leading to labor shortages.

Finally, the Trump administration has failed to address longer term structural problems with the US economy such as the significant racial and economic gaps tht limit opportunities for many, unequal economic development, decaying infrastructure, and an inability to deal with global economic issues such as the increasing competitiveness of China and other major economies. Throw into this also a  growing budget deficit that will force the US to borrow more money at higher interest rates. All told, the recent Wall Street stock jitters highlight what many see as a first or second 2020 economic slowdown that  will impact the presidential race.

But Will the Republicans Abandon Trump?

All of the above forces will serve as manor checks on the remaining Trump presidency.  But does that mean that Republicans in the Senate or his base will abandon him?  As of now there is little sign of that.   It would take a significant combination of the above events for that to happen and for there to be a serious chance of Republicans calling for impeachment, or for there to be support for challenges to Trump were he to run for a second term.  Trump remains more popular among his base than do the rest of the Republicans and until such time as his base leaves him one cannot foresee  this scenario.

The Irony of Donald Trump–The System Works

Perhaps one of the most overused phrases in the news and among commentators is the phrase “constitutional crisis,” especially as it applies to a cluster of issues surrounding the Donald Trump
presidency including whether he can be indicted or if, as an anonymous NY Times op-ed asserts, administration officials are part of a resistence to limit his action. I am not sure what the term means, but there is no constitutional crisis when it comes to Donald Trump, the “system” is working.

A constitutional crisis means a situation where the Constitution and the laws cannot handle or address a specific situation and we are left totally with non-constitutional solutions to address a problem.  I do not see that   here.  When Trump was first elected, I began giving a series of talks that continue to today.  In those first talks I said that there was something remarkable the day after the election–there were no tanks in the streets or troops on the corner.  I said that what will largely happen is that the Trump administration will confront this nasty thing called the Constitution and the Bill of Rights and both will largely do their job.   Lacking government experience and an inclination to want to learn, Trump would face the checks and balances and separation of powers limits that the Constitution imposes.  Moreover, for Trump to get anything done he and his administration needed to secure the assistance of the 3,000 or so members of the Senior  Executive Service–SES–the careerists who really run the federal government.  Finally, were Trump to exceed the political boundaries of what Americans could tolerate, elections would be the final remedy.  Largely, all of this is happening now.

Now 18 months later it is happening.  Legal investigations are tightening the noose around Trump. His and the Republican overreach and ineptness will produce electoral results that will hold him Trump accountable, or at least check him, and the complex system of administrative law and members of the SES or the bureaucracy also are checking the president.  All of this is consistent with the Constitution and its design.

Additionally, as the special prosecutor finishes his investigation, we may soon find Trump and others facing criminal charges.  If a sitting president can be indicted for federal crimes, then the criminal justice process will render a final verdict.  If a sitting president cannot be indicted–and we do not have a clear answer to that question–then possible impeachment or simply voter retribution against him or Republicans may occur.  Trump of course can pardon those accused of committing federal crimes, but he cannot issue pardons for impeachment, civil action, or state crimes.  It is also unlikely anyone would seriously argue the president can pardon himself.

Even if Trump were to fire the special prosecutor, he cannot remove the federal career prosecutor in New York who went after Michael Cohen, and even if he does fire him, Trump cannot fire the Manhattan Borough district attorney or New York State Attorney General who are investigating charges against Trump and his foundation.  It is also an open legal question regarding whether a sitting president could prevent facing state criminal charges.  And the Supreme Court has already ruled that a sitting president can  face civil law suits.  Federal courts have already ruled against Trump on many key issues, and more adverse decisions will come.  Overall, regarding of who sits on the Supreme Court, Trump will face monumental legal challenges that have already checked much of his behavior. 

Even if the legal process breaks down, the final verdict lies with the people.  Barack Obama said it well in his Friday, September 7, 2018 speech when he said that: “Because there is actually only on real check on bad policy and abuses of power, and that's you. You and your vote.”  Elections are the ultimate check on abuses of power, and they are provided for in the Constitution.  Trump's overreach appears to be producing renewed interest to vote and perhaps will yield significant Democrat Party  turnout that will correct and check the worst of the abuses.  2020 may too be another verdict.

The Constitution is proving to be able to address or anticipate many of the problems we are seeing.  I do not see a constitutional crisis. Maybe there is a political crisis but not a constitutional one.    The Constitution is mostly a process document, not one of substantive public policy.  Yes Trump and Congress have enacted many ugly policies that hurt people.  When I say the system works, I do not mean it produces the policy outcomes that I want or which liberals may desire.  The system is working for many of the ways it was designed to work.  The Electoral College is by today’s standards undemocratic but it may be working the way it is supposed in the sense that it checks populism.  Moreover, as Sandy Levinson makes clear in his book on  Our Undemocratic Constitution, the Constitution was not designed to “work” in ways that produce real majority rule.  The Constitution may be working in ways it was supposed to, it is just not the way many of us like.

Cohen, Manafort, and Trump? What do we know and what happens next?

So where are we as a result of the Paul Manafort conviction and Michael Cohen plea? Here are some possible answers.

How bad for Trump was the Michael Cohen plea and the Paul Manafort conviction?

Legally Paul Manafort really had nothing to do with Trump in terms of his campaign and allegations of Russian interference with US elections and allegations that Trump, his campaign, or staff aided and abetted or obstructed the investigation.  This was a trial involving Manafort’s private business dealings. 

It needs to be made absolutely clear that this trial was not about any alleged Russian connections between Trump, his campaign, or associates.  The trial neither refutes nor confirms any of this and has nothing to do with those contentions.  However, the Manafort conviction is a victory for the special prosecutor who uncovered this illegal activity during his investigation.  It supports the idea that the special prosecutor has reason to believe that a criminal investigation is warranted.  It is possible, but we do not know, that Manafort might appeal or even agree to plea to the remaining charges, or negotiate to cooperate with a sentence reduction in return for cooperation with the special prosecutor.  As Trump’s former campaign manager his may have important and relevant information.  We do not know.

Is all this a witch hunt?

Manafort is about issues unrelated to the Russian probe.  Does this not prove a witch hunt?  No.  First prosecutors all the time begin investigations into one matter and turn up illegal behavior unrelated to the initial investigation.  They do not and are supposed to turn a blind eye to these new allegations of illegal behavior and instead often prosecute, as is the case here.

Second, think of a parallel.  Kenneth Starr was the special prosecutor originally appointed to investigate alleged illegal behavior involving President Clinton when he was still governor of Arkansas.  This was the investigation into land dealings called Whitewater.  His investigation revealed no improper behavior there but did find in the course of his investigation that Clinton lied under oath about sexual relations with Monica Lewinsky.  This became the basis of the impeachment against him.  Thus, the Manafort investigation/conviction is a similar outgrowth of Muller’s investigation in the way the Starr perjury claims were regarding Whitewater.

How serious is Cohen?

Cohen is a different legal matter.  Again this has nothing to do with the Russian investigation, per se.  However on a scale of 1-10 where 10 is Trump is impeached or convicted of a crime, and a 9 is Trump is indicted, this was an 8.  Cohen’s plea directly implicates the president in election-related charges which constitute a felony.  His plea also adds saliency and support to civil law suits brought by Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal. But more importantly, Cohen as part of an agreement to reduce his sentence may provide other critical information that connects Trump to other possibly illegal activities.  We do not know what Cohen knows but it appears to be a lot.  The Judge who reviewed the attorney-client confidential information of Cohen’s involving the president is allowing a lot of it to be used, suggesting potentially a significant amount of incriminating information.


The Political Damage?

Collectively, the Cohen-Manafort plea and conviction takes enormous wind out of the claim by Trump that all this is a big witch hunt.  We now have proven assertions or illegal activity involving Trump and his associates, lending credence to claims that Trump or his associates had broken the law.  Politically, Tuesday was a major turning point in the sense that it makes it harder to say there is no merit to any illegal actions surrounding Trump or his associates.  Again, none of this touches the core issue of the Russian investigation; this is all periphery to it.

It is unlikely any of this changes the mind of core Trump supporters.  Its bigger impact is on swing voters, and also in terms of legitimizing the special prosecutor’s probe.

What can Trump do to shut down the legal problems?

Yes Trump can still fire Mueller but this close to an election I doubt even he risks that.  It would explode in his face.  The Muller investigation is probably within a month or so of concluding its fact-finding stage.  At that point a report will be released detailing what he knows and what steps will follow.   What it concludes about Trump no one knows and whether more indictments follow is a good question.

Can Trump be indicted?  Good question.  Watergate-era Justice Department memos suggest no but  a lot of law has changed since then to question that.  If he is indicted there is a major legal battle that goes to the Supreme Court.  I suspect Mueller, even if he concludes there is probable cause of presidential illegal behavior (direct primary liability or aiding and abetting), will opt not to indict and list the president as in Watergate as an unindicted co-conspirator.  This is a nightmare for Trump.  He cannot really clear his name here with a legal proceeding and if the Democrats take control of the House, this is the basis for impeachment.  Instead, I see Mueller potentially indicting many Trump associates, but I do not know since his report has not yet been finalized and released.

Trump can pardon Cohen, Manafort, and anyone else charged or convicted of federal crimes.  Trump cannot easily fire the US prosecutors in New York–they are careerists with a lot of legal protections on their side.

Trump cannot shut down the Daniels and McDougal law suits.  They are civil matters under state law and presidential pardons do not reach into state suits.  Plus, Clinton v. Jones established the legal ruling that sitting presidents can face civil law suits while in office.

The State of the Trump Presidency Today

Note:  On Saturday I travel to Lithuania and Belarus for two weeks to teach.  But before I go some thought on what happened with Trump this week.

Every week seems portentous when it comes to the Trump administration.  This week was no exception.  What can we make of the events this week in terms of what they mean for the 2018 elections and the future of the Trump presidency?


McMaster Out–What does it mean?
Tillerson out, Pompeo in.  McMaster out, Bolton in.  Sanctions on China.  Congratulate Putin.  Is Kelly next?  Is there an ideology guiding Trump’s recent moves with foreign policy?  At its best it signals a shift to right in terms of US foreign policy.  More specifically, it is a stronger push toward economic nationalism and unilateral policy than was the case under Tillerson and McMaster.  It also bodes for a more confrontational policy, where Bolton is critical of the Iran deal and Pompeo pushing a more aggressive stance against Korea.  In replacing his generals (who were cautious in terms of he use of hard power or military force), Trump ironically may be replacing them with civilians who are more militaristic and likely to use force to pursue US foreign policy objectives.  In short, the new Trump foreign policy is economic sanctions and force and less diplomacy.

However, we may be giving Trump too much credit here.  Trump has largely ignored the foreign policy establishment in the US and his recent moves suggest that he is prepared to act on his gut instincts, and not from anything approaching a grant strategy.  The recent moves are more likely gut reactions by Trump that perpetuate the lack of direction in his presidency that will further weaken the ability of the US to articulate its foreign policy objectives.  Don’t expect these to be the last staff replacements.


Cambridge Analytica and what it means
How will this scandal affect Donald Trump and the prospects for his participation in the presidential election-2020? How dangerous is this incident for Trump's political career?  The bigger issue is how will this scandal add to the others in terms of affecting the 2018 midterm elections.  In and of itself much of the public is either not following or understands this issue but it is part of a ongoing story about a lot of dirty things that happened in 2016.  If Democrats take control of one or both houses of Congress the Analytica incident will have helped contribute to that.  Trump’s 2020 prospects hinge more on what happens in 2018.  Moreover, the alleged  Stormy Daniels story (payment of hush money to her) and to other women along with a pending sexual harassment suit or suits will have a broader impact on how many think about Trump.

How should one assess the role of Cambridge Analytica in the victory of Donald Trump in the presidential election-2016?  The 2016 election was one dominated by the social media and fake news.  If all the Cambridge allegations are true (and more details come out), one cannot say that their role was decisive but we can say that it had a significant impact.  One cannot discount other factors such as Clinton’s own candidacy problems and strategy as contributing factors.

Stormy Daniels: Sex, Lies, and the Presidency
In 2017 I argued that 2018 would be the year that law suits would grind the Trump presidency to a halt.  There are the existing and future indictments by the special prosecutor surrounding Russian involvement in the US elections (and Trump complicity and cover up or obstruction of justice) that will include trials this year and legal issues tht will reach beyond the 2018 midterm elections.  Unlike with Nixon when a grand jury was unsure a president could be indicted for a crime and labeled him an unindicted co-conspirator, the law and legal consensus has shifted since then.  Presidents can be indicted for crimes and Trump and his old and new legal team are worried that is a possibility here and that is why Trump is lawyering up now.

Interest groups, states, and cities will challenge many of Trump’s executive orders and administrative regulations.  And of course, sex scandals will add a third set of law suits.   Including Stormy Daniels, there are three women with credible claims of sexual harassment or cover up involving Trump.  Gloria Allred is representing one of these women (Summer Zervos) who just received permission by a judge to proceed with her case.  Look to see her seek to depose Trump in the civil suit (Trump can thank Bill Clinton and the Supreme Court in Clinton v. Jones where the Court said that civil suits can proceed against a sitting president) and also look to see more lawsuits brought by other alleged victims this year.

Talk is cheap.  Let’s see who has video tape of Trump doing what.  If such tapes exist they could have a real impact on Trump.

Conclusion:  When will the Republicans Abandon Him?
Not until such time as they conclude that he is an anchor to the party.  So far his GOP base of 35-40% are with him.  The GOP in Congress is with him...sort of.  They are in denial regarding the potential damage he can do to them in the 2018 elections.  The best thing the GOP has going for them is that the Democrats need a perfect storm to take back one or two houses of Congress.  It is possible but not guaranteed.  If the GOP goes down in 2018 then they will turn on him.  Until if and then, Trump is more popular than the Republicans in Congress and the latter cannot afford to turn on him.

Trumpapalooza: It’s Worse than Watergate

With each passing day and news story about the Trump administration, the parallels to Nixon and
Watergate get stronger and stronger.  Yet while stories of coverups, obstruction of justice, and the hiring of a special investigator invite powerful comparisons, the reality is that with Trump it is  potentially far worse than Watergate, far worse than Clinton, Lewinsky, and Whitewater, and maybe even worse than Iran Contra.  Trumpapalooza–an all encompassing, 24/7, multi-media extravaganza, –could be the worst of all presidential scandals so far.
It is unfortunate that one of the defining themes of American politics in the last 50 years has been repeated stories of abuses of presidential power.  Once called the imperial presidency by historian Arthur Schlesinger, Jr., it was a product of granting too much power to the president to act in a range of domestic and international events, congressional acquiescence of its constitutional duties, and usurpation and abuse of authority of presidents for personal gain or revenge.
Watergate is the paradigm of that abuse.  Most narrowly defined, Watergate when the story first broke was about a break in at the Democratic Party national headquarters at the Watergate office building in Washington, D.C.  The story started at first without any allegations of presidential role of White House connection, but it soon expanded to be a much more comprehensive saga of the abuses of power of the Nixon presidency.
The Watergate break in occurs in June, 1972, in the middle of Nixon’s re-election bid for a second term.  Initially there is no indication of presidential involvement but there were rumors shortly after the break in Nixon was already hard at work ordering hush money to cover his tracks.  In addition, in the burglars’ possession when caught was Nixon’s campaign headquarters reelection number The Watergate story does not really take off until 1973 when several reporters and mounting political pressure forced Congress to begin hearings, and then in October 1973 after Nixon had named former Solicitor General Archibald Cox as a special investigator to look into the events, the former fired the later in the famous Saturday Night Massacre.
Through the remainder of 1973 and into 1974 the House and Senate Watergate hearings and the investigation of Leon Jaworski produced a tale of illegal activity that implicated the president of the United States along with his attorney general and other major officials in his administration.  Tied directly to Watergate were Nixon’s ordering of the break in, the cover up, efforts to impede the criminal investigation, and in the end a constitutional battle over the possession of White House tapes of conversations that Nixon had made.  All of this culminated in the Supreme Court decision United States v. Nixon where the Court ordered Nixon to turn over his tapes to a special prosecutor, ruling that the imperatives of a criminal investigation outweigh any executive privilege g rounded in the Constitution  that the president may have in withholding them.  In effect, the president was not above the law.  That decision, along with a House Judiciary vote along bipartisan lines to impeach the president and a grand jury naming the president as an”unindicted co-conspirator,” forced Nixon to resign on August 8, 1974.
Watergate started with a pretty break in of the opposition’s headquarters.  But the entire story of Nixon’s abuse of power also encompassed illegal fundraising, payments of hush money, maintaining an enemies list, attacks on the media, and engaging in an illegal war in Cambodia.  Watergate engulfed, dominated, and ended early Nixon’s second term as president, after serving an initial four years that did produce a score of major legitimate legislative victories including the passage of the Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, and the creation of the Environmental Protection Agency.  For all the criticism of Nixon, he was a career politician with a congressional and vice-presidential resume, and he had an ability to work with Congress.
It’s potentially far worse than Trump for him, his presidency, the Republican party, and maybe the United States. Trump has no experience in government or the military, and therefore no real understanding or apparent interest in how Washington works.  In many cases he has also appointed individuals with no government experience, and he has failed to fill many critical positions in government.  Trump ran on draining the swamp in Washington and he seems to think that this means crippling the machinery of governance, yet to secure his policy agenda he needs to take control of what Steve Bannon labels the deep administrative state.  So long as Trump continues to show contempt for the Constitution and government he will be unable to get anything done.  The first 120 days portend a pattern of policy inaction, preventing him and the Republicans from securing  their policy agenda.  Trump has created something unique for Washington–intra-party gridlock.  One expected Obama and the Republican Congress to be at odds–but not this kind of stalemate.
But if an aborted or arrested policy agenda were the total of what the problems facing Trump that might not be so bad. Yet it is coming at the beginning of his presidency, not in a second term as was the case with Nixon, Reagan, and Clinton.   But more importantly, the bigger problem are the legal, constitutional, and political issues.  Nixon and Watergate began with allegations of presidential involvement in a petty burglary, the story here involves Trump, his campaign, and his administration’s complicity and conspiracy to work with Russia to interfere and influence American elections and policy.  
Allegations that Trump personally, his family and business dealings, and many of his advisors or staff that include Michael Flynn, Jeff Sessions, and Paul Manafort worked with the Russians, were being paid by them, or in some way coordinated with or cheered on their activities to affect US elections and policy is  far worse than Watergate.  It is far worse than the arms for hostages diversion that Reagan ordered in Irancontra, and it is clearly far worse than Clinton lying about his sexual behavior or losing money in a land deal called Whitewater.
And we can draw this comparison with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, having all or most of the facts about these previous abuses of power in hand.  Right now few of the facts of  Trumpapalooza are known and investigations have hardly started.  It potentially will reveal far worse.  Who knows how far-flung the story will be, and where it takes one into ow Trump’s private business dealings connect to Russia and other foreign governments or what conflicts of interests it will produce.  Who knows the real reasons for the Comey firings and whether they amounted to obstruction of justice.  Who knows whether the war on the media has produced an enemies list or what other unconstitutional activities (beyond two botched executive orders on immigration and one on sanctuary cites) there are or have been.
The appointment of Robert Mueller as special investigator is only the beginning.  For any who think this is going to be a quick investigation, think again.  The more Trump fights it and sees it as a witch hunt the more likely it seems that he will be uncooperative and force the investigation  well into 2018, thereby nearly guaranteeing that it impedes the Trump-Republican policy agenda, and impacts the elections.
The electoral connection is the last and perhaps most interesting parallel to Watergate.  Until in 1973 when efforts to investigate Nixon were bipartisan, so far the GOP has stood by Trump, tying their political fortunes to him.  They are resisting calls to investigate and criticize.  But if Trump becomes even more of a political liability to them, they may be forced to act otherwise in 2018 there could be a repeat of 1974 when Democrats won huge majorities in Congress, Minnesota, and across the nation.  It is the fear or possibility of that political reality that dictates how the Republicans respond to Trump in the next few months.