The Train Wreck of Politics

Politics is like an attractive nuisance.  There are so many reasons why what politicians do annoy us, but nonetheless political junkies remain attracted to the stories in the news.  Yes politics has turned into entertainment and campaigns and elections often  seem like farces, but that should not distract us from the reality that politics and government are important.
Government does matter in terms of what it does and, while we often forget it, government in the US has accomplished a lot and made powerful positive differences in our lives.  Ranging from landing a man on the Moon, fluoridating water to improve dental health, or producing tap water, roads, bridges, and arresting the bad guys and putting out fires, government matters.  Free markets are fine in their place, but they have proved to be incapable of addressing many problems our society confronts. Having said all that as an important reminder to those who see government as bad or evil, there are several stories in the news this week that highlight what many see as the bad side of politics.

Trump: “Have you no sense of decency?”
The witch hunts of the 1950s McCarthy era crashed to a close on June 9, 1954.  After Senator Joe McCarthy during a public hearing made another allegation about someone’s political affiliations,  Joseph Welsh, chief counsel for the US Army retorted: “You've done enough. Have you no sense of decency, sir? At long last, have you left no sense of decency?”  Welch’s comments exposed the reckless and cruel attacks of McCarthy as nothing more than shameful rhetoric made for personal political gain.  Maybe Donald Trump has finally had his Welsh moment.
For months there has been a death watch as Trump insulted one group after another.  It has included military POWS, women, Muslims, non-mainline Christians, and now individuals with handicaps.  This latest was mocking a NY Times reporter’s physical handicap.  Till now the comments seemed not to hurt him.  Instead the controversies only gave him media coverage, giving him attention in ways that bullies get attention when they pick on someone.  It may still be the case that Trump’s latest comments will not hurt him long term and that he remains the favorite in the polls among Republicans.  Yet a recent Reuters poll shows a 12% drop in his support among Republicans in the last week.  Is it possible that he has finally reached a point where he has insulted enough Americans that he has crossed the line?  When do you think he will pick on orphans, kick a dog, or spit at someone?
Clearly something has changed.  Check out John Kasich ad where Trump is compared to Hitler.  This is a hard hitting ad that points out how Trump has gone after one group after another just like Hitler (and McCarthy) did.  Surprising that the ad is by a candidate and not a SuperPac.  But it does appear that other candidates are no longer afraid of Trump.

Trump Part II:   @!*&%# Off!
Trump has had a major impact on the Republican presidential race in many ways, including his use of foul language.  The NY Times reports that other GOP candidates are now also swearing on the campaign circuit.  The road to macho must be through the seven words that George Carlin could not say on television (and which Bono got fined for using) but which candidates for president can now freely deploy.  I a waiting for the next Republican debate where Kasich turns to Trump and says “F— off!”  If that happens we are not far from the classic SNL routine where Dan Aykroyd and Jane Curtin do a mock debate, ending with the famous line “Jane you ignorant slut.”

Why we hate politicians
Ann Lenczewski was a well respected member of the Minnesota House of Representative.  She was perhaps the leading expert on tax policy.  Yet she recently announced her resignation to join a law firm to become a lobbyist lobbying the state legislature.  In a recent interview in Politics in Minnesota when asked about the fact that this looks really bad she replied:

“That’s understandable.  If the Legislature would pass a law, which has never happened, and a governor would sign it, that would say you can’t lobby for one or two years, I would follow the law. ...Many former House members have gone on to be lobbyists:...there’s dozens and dozens of them...The House has a rule [against lobbying], but it only applies if you’re a member of the House.”

Her answer is akin to the “if everyone else is doing it, it must be ok.”  Her answer simply rang hollow and showed clear deafness for how bad this looks.  It is even worse to know that for years she was one of the major sponsors of legislation to ban this type of behavior.  I guess at the end of the day it is another story of if you can’t beat them, join them.  Ann is a good person whose statement simply captures the reality of how bad even Minnesota politics is.  No wonder the state earned a D- in its most recent ranking on ethics.

The 2016 Minnesota Election Themes 
It is becoming clear what the 2016 elections themes will be in the battle for the Minnesota House and Senate.  Of course it will be the Senate Office Building but so too look to see Polymet and Black Lives Matters as issues.  So too will be whether to help workers on the Iron Range and Lake Mille Lacs as the governor had wanted.  These are issues that divide not just the two major parties but also the Democrats.
Moreover, while the governor is perfectly correct that something needs to be done to address  the racial disparities in Minnesota, it is not clear that the Democrats and he are building the political coalition in greater Minnesota to accomplish this.  Black Lives Matters may be good copy and a salient issue that could help urban Democrats, but it is not an issue that will help them in the suburbs and greater Minnesota.
Why raise all this?  So far the Republicans in Minnesota seem to be defining a better set of themes and campaign narratives than are the Democrats.  While in a presidential election year DFLers normally do better look at 2016 as a year where it will still be difficult for Democrats to retake the House and the battle for the Senate will be challenging.

The Achievement Gap
Finally, take a look at this sobering article on the state of education and race in America since Brown v. The Board of Education.  The gaps between Blacks and Whites show that race still matters and that perhaps we need to show as much anger about the education gap as we do about the shooting of African-Americans by police officers.
No, the solution is not vouchers or to get rid of public schools as conservatives demand.  There is little evidence that these gimmicks along with charter schools have succeeded.  Simply spending more money on schools is not the answer (although the US does spend less on education as a percentage of its GDP compared to other major countries) in the same way that cutting taxes is not  always the answer. The question is how to spend money–existing and new–to improve education.  The answer lies not just in spending on schools but also in support networks that make it possible to support families, parents, and communities.

Republican Good News, Bad News after Alabama and Mississippi

Good News for Santorum: He wins Alabama and Mississippi.
Bad News for Santorum: He loses Hawaii and Guam.

Good News for Romney: He wins Hawaii and Guam.
Bad News for Romney: A Republican will never win Hawaii in the presidential race and Guam doesn’t matter.

Good News for Gingrich: He came in second in Mississippi and Alabama.
Bad News for Gingrich: He came in second in Mississippi and Alabama after stating last week these were must wins for him.

Good news for Romney: No Democrat can win Mississippi or Alabama.
Bad News for Romney: Nor can he.

Good News for Santorum: He won two states and slowed down Romney’s momentum.
Bad News for Santorum: He has one-half the delegates that Romney.

Good News for Romney: He won the most delegates on Tuesday.
Bad News for Romney: It’s hard to claim frontrunner status when you come in third in two states.

Good News for Santorum: Conservatives win 70% of the vote in Alabama and Mississippi.
Bad News for Santorum: As long as Gingrich is in the race, they split the conservative vote.

Good News for Romney: Gingrich is still in the race, splitting up conservative vote.
Bad News for Romney: He cannot seal the deal and close the nomination.

Good News for Gingrich: He is not dead yet.
Bad News for Gingrich: He cannot identify another state he can win.

Good News for Romney: Illinois is the next state.
Bad News for Romney: He may win another state that no Republican will win in November (Obama’s home state).

Do the Math: The Increasing Probability of a Brokered Republican National Convention

After Super Tuesday Mitt Romney told Santorum that the delegate numbers were against him and that it was unlikely that the latter could win enough delegates to reach the 1144 magic number to clinch the nomination. Truth be told, it looks like none of the GOP candidates except Romney can reach this number, and even his chances are questionable. All this  raises the increasing probabilities that there will be no candidate with enough delegates after the primaries are done in June to clinch the nomination.  Brokered convention here we come!

Let’s do some math.

There are a total of 2,286 delegates to the August 27-30, 2012 Republican National Convention (RNC) in Tampa, Florida.  For a candidate to win the nomination he must secure 1144 delegates.

Through super Tuesday here is the delegate count:

Romney          421
Santorum        181
Gingrich          107
Paul                47
Huntsmann      02

So far a total of 758 delegates have actually been awarded.  This is 33.1% of the total delegates. Another 129 delegates have been selected in caucus states such as Maine and Minnesota but have not yet been awarded to anyone. This means there are 1399 delegates or 61.2% are yet to be awarded.

Of the 129 caucus delegates not officially awarded, potentially Santorum and Paul have done well at winning many of the delegates in these caucus states, suggesting that their numbers looking better than they do.  In fact even Romney may have more delegates than his official number indicates if his portion of the 129 is considered.  But for purposes here, ignore these 129 delegates since they probably will not be awarded until after the primary season is over and they generally are cast for the winner at the national convention, assuming there is one.  If no candidate has already reached the 1,144 number, these 129 delegates will become really important.

Of those delegates actually awarded (758) Romney has won 55.5%, Santorum has won 23.8%, Gingrich 14%, and Paul 6.2%.

For Romney to win the nomination, he needs to win 723 additional delegates out of the 1399 remaining. This means he has to win 51.6% of the remaining delegates.

For Santorum to win the nomination, he needs to win 963 additional delegates our of the 1399 remaining. This means he has to win 68.8% of the remaining delegates.

For Gingrich to win the nomination, he needs to win 1037 additional delegates our of the 1399 remaining. This means he has to win 74.1% of the remaining delegates.

For Paul to win the nomination, he needs to win 1097 additional delegates our of the 1399 remaining. This means he has to win 78.4% of the remaining delegates.

The math suggests that Romney merely need to perform in the future at slightly below or about the same level of delegate collection to win the nomination. If this were occur, he would have enough delegates around June 5, when California (172), Montana (26), New Jersey (50), New Mexico (23), and South Dakota (28) hold their primaries. Assuming no major changes in political fortunes, it will  be three more months at a minimum for the Republican nomination to conclude with a nominee.

But Romney’s math is fuzzy. March 10 brings Kansas, March 13 Alabama and Mississippi, and then Missouri has a March 17 contest. There is a total of 142 delegates here.  Romney will not do well here, winning perhaps 40% of the delegates (57). There are other southern states–Texas, Louisiana,  Arkansas, and Kentucky, with a total of 272 delegates where he may also substantially underperform  and perhaps win only 40% of the delegates (109). If this were the case, Romney would have 587 delegates, and would then have to win 557 out of the other 1,127 remaining delegates (49.4%).  This is not impossible for Romney, but it suggests that he has to continue to perform well in these other states if he wants to clinch the nomination by the end of the primary season in June.

If Romney were to perform worse than these projections then he chances of securing the necessary delegates to clinch the nomination goes down. For example, if he does worse than expected in the next two weeks and his momentum is slowed then it may make it harder for him to clinch in advance. Better than expected performances in the next couple of weeks can increase the chances of securing the necessary delegates.

Bottom line: The math is against Santorum at this time and Romney merely needs to continue at his current pace to clinch the nomination in June. Romney is definitely in the driver’s seat but the math suggests a precarious seat.

Politainment: My new book explaining the 2012 elections

New book describes essence of winning politics in 2012 elections

Politainment: The Ten Rules of Contemporary Politics: A Citizens' Guide to Understanding Campaigns and Elections by David Schultz describes how much politics and the media has changed

SAINT PAUL, Minn. Hamline University professor David Schultz, noted expert on elections and politics, announces the publication of his latest book, Politainment: The Ten Rules of Contemporary Politics: A citizens' guide to understanding campaigns and elections (ISBN 0615594204).

Politainment is the word of the day according to Schultz, and it is the essence of contemporary politics. It is a world where politics and entertainment merge into one, where politicians seek to be celebrities, and celebrities run for political office. Politainment is the politics of Comedy Central, late-night talk shows and the 24 hours a day news cycles using entertainment venues and techniques to capture the limited attention of voters and viewers. Schultz's new book examines the key concepts of this new world of politainment. He describes 10 simple rules for successful political campaigns  such as politics is like selling beer, define or be defined or that it is about passion to explain what it takes to win in politics and why politicians and the media need one another.

Written in an easy to understand format, Politainment: The Ten Rules of Contemporary Politics: A citizens' guide to understanding campaigns and elections, is for political junkies, journalists and those exploring American politics for the first time. It makes sense out of the 2012 elections and tells readers what they need to know about politics.

Politainment: The Ten Rules of Contemporary Politics: A Citizens' Guide to Understanding Campaigns and Elections, is available for sale online at Amazon.com.

About the Author:David Schultz is a professor of public administration and government ethics at Hamline University School of Business. He has taught classes on American government and election law for more than 25 years. Schultz is the author and editor of 25 books and 90 articles on American politics and law and is a frequently quoted political analyst in the local, national and international media.  Schultz draws on these experiences, plus those working in government and working on political campaigns, to the writing of Politainment.

For more information contact me at dschultz@hamline.edu or by phone: (651) 523-2858. Also check out my website: www.davidschultz.efoliomn.com

The GOP war on the 1960s: “I thought this debate was over years ago.”

Curiouser and curiouser turns the 2012 Republican presidential primary. But what seems now to stand out the most is how the race is turning on issues that one had thought were long since resolved. In many ways, Rick Santorum’s presidential campaign, and the pull he is having on the Republican Party, seem to be a referendum on the 1960s and the changes that decade unleashed on American society.

Over the last few weeks I have had so many people turn to me and say about the issues being debated this year: “I thought this debate was over years ago.”

Think about it.

Santorum grossly misquotes a 1960 John Kennedy speech talking about the need to respect a diversity of religious perspectives and not use the government to impose its orthodoxy upon others. JFK gave this speech both to assure voters that his Catholicism did not mean as president he would take direction from the Pope and that America was simply more than a Protestant nation. Santorum construes this speech to be about an attack on religion and a separation of church and state that makes he want to throw up. Never mind also that the Supreme Court has also repeatedly addressed  issues of prayer in public schools and public displays of religion on governmental property. Santorum wants to fight this battle all over again. “I thought this debate was over years ago.”

Santorum hates birth control and think that employers and their health plans should not be required to pay for it for women. In 1965 the Supreme Court ruled in Griswold v. Connecticut that a constitutional right to privacy protected the choice of couples to use birth control. Last year Rick Perry was assailed for a decision at one time to mandate human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccine for  young women to protect their health. Rush Limbaugh calls a woman a slut and prostitute for taking a stand on this issue. All this is reminiscent of the battles in the 1960s over the pill and claims that it encouraged promiscuity. Have we not resolved the issue of protecting women’s health and promoting women’s equality? “I thought this debate was over years ago.”

Beginning in the 1960s states began relaxing abortion laws and repealing rules restricting sexual behavior between consenting adults.  In 1973 in Roe v. Wade the Supreme Court affirmed reproductive rights of women, and again did so in 1992 in Planned Parenthood v. Casey. Yet Santorum and all the Republicans want to take away these rights and label women who want to control their reproductive and sexual choices as sluts. “I thought this debate was over years ago.”

Ron Paul objects to the passage of the 1964 Civil Rights Act as eroding personal freedom. I thought Martin Luther King, Jr., “I have a dream” speech and the civil rights movement demonstrated the importance of racial equality. “I thought this debate was over years ago.”

The 1967 Loving v. Virginia Supreme Court case stated that marriage is a fundamental right.  Then beginning with the 1969 riots at the Stonewall Bar in NYC the movement for gay rights began.  The two events come together to represent a national evolution towards equal rights regarding of sexual orientation.  The Republicans want to deny marriage equality to gays and lesbians. “I thought this debate was over years ago.”

It is curious. The Republican presidential candidates and the base seem intent on revisiting the 1960s. They cannot seem to stand the fact that America has evolved, even after nearly 50 years has passed. It is more than simply the politics of nostalgia. It seems to be one of both a generational and racial divide, looking to see a world that has changed and an anger over it. For the Republicans, these issues are disasters both in 2012 as they will alienate many swing voters, but beyond as one generation dies out, only to be replaced by another that believes simply: “I thought this debate was over years ago.”

Final Thoughts
My very first undergraduate political science professor Mary T. Hanna wrote a book in 1979 entitled Catholics and American Politics. She foretold of a future American politics with Catholics as the largest religious denomination in the country. Yet at the time she wrote the book in 1979 she saw a Catholicism that was progressive and liberal. Since then much of Catholic politics has turned conservative. What we may be seeing in the United States now is how the change in Catholicism is driving the GOP. It is now a religion that is large and conservative, pent on using it clout to further its orthodoxy. Amazing how it is forgotten the days when Catholics were a minority persecuted by a Protestant majority. Amazing how it has forgotten the wisdom of JFK’s 1960 speech.

Super Tuesday Preview
Super Tuesday will be rough for Romney. He will not do well in the South and if he doe not win Ohio then the race is clearly wide open. The race is tightening in Ohio and it is unclear who wins but even a close second by Santorum along with wins in Oklahoma and Tennessee and a Gingrich win in Georgia mean the race is not over for a long time. But now the race is less about states than delegates, although where those deletes are won makes a difference in terms of assessing presidential prospects. Romney, except for Florida, seems to win in states that Republicans will not win in November, and has a tough time in close swing states such as Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio.