Thoughts on the MN Primary: Looking to the General Election

What did we learn about the August 10, MN primary? A few interesting things.

Turnout
First, I confess, I was wrong. I predicted an August primary would produce a 12% turnout or a 2% decease from previous years. Instead, it went up to 15%. I am glad I was wrong. Instead of people being confused by a new date perhaps candidate groundwars and the novelty of the new date increased turnout.

Second, because of increased turnout, the winning number for the DFL primary was much higher than I predicted. Moreover, given how many voted in the DFL primary, this suggests more passion or hunger by the DFL to win the governorship. This is why the primary turnout increased, and it does give Dayton some momentum heading into November.

Why Dayton?
Many DFLers expressed shock that Kelliher lost. I never thought she would. All along I said that Dayton had the name recognition advantage, the money advantage (over Kelliher but not Dayton), and was at least second in terms of ties to organized interests (AFSCME) in terms of organized interests. All this counted a lot. But I also suggested his strength would be with the Iron Range and his Lt. Governor. This is what paid off. Kelliher was really an urban Twin Cities candidate but never really one with broader appeal across the state.

I also think there was a certain arrogance on display with the DFL establishment on Tuesday. As I listened to MPR on Tuesday night Brian Melendez and others in the DFL seemed self-confident and cocky that their machine would deliver for Kelliher. Why believe that when the track record for the last two decades demonstrates the contrary. I think Kelliher’s shock and late concession on Wednesday reflected this arrogance too. Neither she nor the rank DFL get it in terms of understanding that they do not speak or represent the broader spectrum of those who consider themselves Democrats.

What is significant about Dayton are two things. First, he won with rural and blue collar support. The GOP should be worried about this. Generally, Emmer and the GOP can count on rural votes and some blue collar. However, Dayton ran strong where the GOP normally do. Assuming that the DFLers can bring their organization statewide and in the metro region to support Dayton, the DFL has a good campaign.

Second, Dayton won with a coalition and themes that bring back to life the old Perpich era. He did well with workers and the Iron Range and he ran on populist themes that harken back to that era. His emphasis on education returns the DFL to the Perpich one of making MN the brainpower state. Normally I do not think the past beats the future in politics, but here Dayton is cementing together one last time the old Perpich themes and coalition and updating for 2010. It might work again.

The General Election
It is trite to say that Dayton versus Emmer represents the broadest liberal/conservative divide in decades and that this sets up Horner for the center. All this is true. This also sets up the old Perpich coalition v. the new Tea Party brand of the GOP. Two different populist movements in conflict.

Emmer faces some weaknesses. Support for him among his base is a little soft, leaving Horner with room to grab GOPers. Also, Dayton has a stronger hold on moderate swing voters and female suburban voters (the soccer moms) than does Emmer. This is the battleground and Emmer is way behind here. He needs to figure out a way to remessage and move to the center. However, thanks to Matt Entenza and bad campaigning on his own account, the DFL has already defined Emmer. Emmer made the same mistake as Kerry in '04–he let others define him instead of defining himself. Once defined it is hard to undue.

Emmer also faces a McCain problem. In '08 McCain knew Bush was unpopular and that “change” was the mantra of the year. He needed to figure out how to run against Bush, a member of his own party, and also recognize that America was going in the wrong direction. If you are of the same party how can change mean staying with the same party? This is a tough trick to perform and McCain failed.

Emmer has a similar problem. He says MN is on the wrong track and it needs a new direction on taxes and regulation. He seems to forget that Pawlenty was governor for the last 8 years. How can he run against is own party? This is the McCain-Bush problem repeated here. Yes, Emmer represents a different wing of the GOP compared to Pawlenty (it is the Reagan v. Palin wing), but the DFL have already linked Emmer to Pawlenty.

Finally, the issues. Briefly, it is the economy and jobs. Average voters do not care about the record of Dayton as senator or the budget deficit. If the GOP talk about Dayton’s senate life that get away from core issues of the economy. Conversely, if the DFL talk too much about DWI and the deficit that also lose focus.

One Month to Go

It is exactly one month to the Minnesota’s first August primary which takes place on August 10. Frantic are the candidates for the governor’s race (especially DFL) who are securing absentee ballots for voters away on that date. They are also making their last minute pitches to remind their supporters to vote for them, or convince likely voters to convert to them.

Where do we stand today? Emmer for the GOP and Horner for the Independence Party are still the favorites for their parties. For the DFL, Dayton retains his lead, Kelliher second, and Entenza third. But Entenza is the biggest wild card. Recent polls have him gaining the most–largely out of Kelliher’s numbers–and his recent television ads, including a new one on education that features him and Robyn Robinson, are getting better and more frequent. His money and ads seem to be working.

But a few questions surround Entenza. It is yet to see if the ads and new poll numbers translate into real turnout on primary day. This is the groundwars battle and it is not clear where he stands compared to Dayton and Kelliher who have more connections to unions that might be able to drive turnout. Additionally, Dayton’s decision to release his taxes and Entenza’s refusal, the latter’s income from his wife in healthcare and the environment, are raising troubling questions about potential conflicts of interest. I also continue to find that regular DFLers (party folks) continue to see Entenza as having other ethical questions. I spoke at an event Thursday heavily populated by suburban (DFL) Jewish women. They all expressed concern about Entenza’s ethics but several also expressed concern that when several of them had talked to him in the past they said “he looked right though them” and did not really listen to them.

But conversely, Entenza may also be the best candidate to take on Emmer. Emmer needs to be pressed on many issues about taxes, spending, and host of other issues. Entenza may be the best at going for Emmer’s juggler and in debating. Entenza has good speaking skills and knows the issues well. He is a better debater than Dayton and is clearly more aggressive than Kelliher. Both may be critical skills in what will be a difficult general election.

Overall, while right now the smart money is on Dayton for August 10, Entenza is a good long shot for both then and the general election if he makes it that far. He still needs to address concerns about ethics and listen to what these DFL women are saying.

Thoughts on the Minnesota DFL Gubernatorial Race

The race to the August 10 Minnesota primary is less than 50 days but more than an eternity away. While there are many primary contests on August 10, the eyes are really on the DFL gubernatorial primary featuring party-endorsed Margaret Anderson-Kelliher, Mark Dayton, and Matt Entenza. By saying the primary is less than 50 days is to note how little time there is to roll out ads, mobilize supporters, raise money, and secure name recognition, 50 days is also an eternity when it comes how polls can shift and fortunes to change politically in such a brief period of time. Fifty days is a long time politically, especially this year.

Where does the DFL gubernatorial primary stand? In some ways, the primary has already started–the absentee ballots are being mailed now. But recent polls confirm that Dayton is still in the lead. However the biggest surpriser was Entenza–dramatically increasing in the polls to the mid 20s, with stronger support among independents compared to his rivals. Entenza’s rise in the polls seems to have come at the expense of Kelliher, who now seems weaker than she did a few weeks ago. Entenza’s rise seems less due to Robyn Robinson who gave him a 24 bump in the polls, but more due to an extensive television campaign and a heavy mail program. His constant barrage of ads seems to be working to give him name recognition, forcing Dayton also to hear the airwaves with his first ad. The good news for Entenza and Dayton is that the ads seem to be working to garner attention and help in the polls the bad news for Kelliher is that lacking money, she is being hurt by her absence from television.

The Horserace
But Entenza is also doing something very smart. I live in Entenza’s old legislative district and have received about six mailings so far. I have been told he is not just hitting up his old district but doing mailings across the state in critical areas. Neither Dayton nor Kelliher are doing this. This target marketing makes sense. When, according to my estimates, it will take only about 90-95,000 votes to win the primary, heavily targeting and mobilizing among markets where one has high degrees of support makes sense. Entenza seems to be smart in understanding the niche approach to running that the other candidates do not seem to be showing. Whether this will pay off remains to be seen, of course.
As I have argued before, the issues determining victory for August 10 are connected to several issues. Name recognition, money, connection to organized interests, and actual delivery of voters on August 10 are the variables that will affect success. In a primary with low turnout, moving small numbers of people will be key to success and the above four factors will be decisive.

What do you think?
Entenza and Dayton have now been running ads for a few weeks. I think Dayton’s first ad was excellent in terms of being inspiring, telling a good story, and having a good message to appeal to many constituents. Entenza’s BP environmental ad was also good in terms of capitalizing on a recent issue. However, I am curious to see what you think about the ads? Do you like them? Are they working? How do you think the candidates are doing? Please share your thoughts. I would love to have a conversation here.

Apologies
My apologies for an extended hiatus from the blog. Between travels to Moscow, Russia, home remodeling projects, and finishing another book the blog was the casualty. More frequent blogs will again return.

12% Turnout Predicted for August 10 Primary

Today I released a study indicating that the impact of changing the date of the Minnesota primary from September to August will result in less than a two percent decrease in voter turnout. The study is found here at http://davidschultz.v2efoliomn.mnscu.edu/MinnesotaPolitics

I predict that only about 12% of the voters, or approximately 381,000 voters will show up for the new August primary. This is a 2% compared to the 2006 primary.

The report is entitled Estimating Voter Turnout in the August 10, 2010 Minnesota Primary.

Based on the limited experiences of two other states–Florida and Washington–which changed their primaries from September to August, the impact of the new August date in Minnesota will be minimal, amounting to less than a 2 percent decrease in turnout. While two percent is not much, it is a predicted decrease, continuing a downward rate of participation in primaries in Minnesota that has continued since the early 1980s.” The reason for the decrease, according to the report, may be due to confusion, summer vacations, and the absence of the state fair to cue voters that a primary is occurring.

The report notes that the impact of the new primary date needs to be considered along side of this downward trend in primary participation. The latter may be driven by declining party identification in the state or other factors according to Schultz. The 12% turnout would compare to nearly 14% in 2006 and 31% in1982. The 12% predicted turnout in August means 381,000 voters will go to the polls this August.

In addition to predicting overall August voter turnout, the report estimates 229,000 individuals will vote in the 2010 DFL gubernatorial primary, and that to win the DFL gubernatorial primary, a candidate will need to between 76,197 and 114,410 votes, with the most likely winning number being between 90,000-95,000 votes.

Handicapping the DFL Convention

The Minnesota DFL convention is only a few days away. The convention is both big news and perhaps irrelevant at the same time. Big news because it will decide for now who gets the endorsement, irrelevant because there will be a August 10 primary that does not necessarily favor the endorsed candidate.

Let us look at the convention and handicap it. It appears to be the mayor versus the speaker, Mayor RT Rybak of Minneapolis versus Speaker of House Margaret Anderson Kelliher. The caucuses produced a virtual tie between the two and all indications are the two are also tied this week. However, each brings to the convention certain advantages.

Kelliher brings an enormous array of endorsements and favors due to her because of her role as speaker. She is the insider’s candidate. With no clear front runner, look to see how her insider status helps her at the convention.

Rybak is somewhat the outsider. He does not have the same number of insider connections but he has done well in terms of getting convention delegates out and he has the excitement of his supporters. Passion is always important and the passion is there for him.

I see parallels between Rybak and Kelliher that remind my of the Obama/Clinton contest in 2008. Rybak was the Obama person in Minnesota and both come from community organizer backgrounds. Both are bringing these skills to their campaigns and are taking on the insider candidate Kelliher/ Clinton. Clinton did well among party leaders and traditional conventions or primaries, Obama did better with caucuses. One wonders if the same will occur here. Rybak did well in the caucuses but the convention is the place where the real insiders often thrive. The convention has the superdelegates and elected officials, not just the caucus attendees.

This mixture should favor Kelliher. However, one also wonders how many of the Kelliher endorsements reflect real passion for her versus groups and people feeling that must support her because she is speaker? Similarly, can Rybak translate passion into convention mobilization and convince delegates he can win in November? Both candidates need to move super delegates in their direction, but how?

I think the convention will be marked by several ballots and the outcome will be determined by several factors. One will be to look to the role that other DFL candidates have at the convention. Who will they eventually support and what role will they encourage their supporters to take? Second, look to see the role the super delegates play. They will be moved by the candidate speeches and the enthusiasm they generate. Finally, the concept of picking a winner will be on the minds of many. The year 1986 was the last time the DFL elected a governor. They want a winner.

Look to see this convention be a brokered one that looks like an old-fashioned convention. Superdelegates, background deals with the minor candidates, and other insider activity will determine who get the convention nod. I think it is unlikely that there will be no endorsement.

But what does the endorsement mean when there is a certain primary on August 10. Rybak and Kelliher have said they will honor the endorsement, meaning one of the them will face Dayton, Entenza, and Gaertner on August 10.

There are three big questions looming: What role will the big money of Dayton and Entenza have? What will the turnout be on August 10, and who does the early primary favor? Finally, what about name recognition?

Dayton has the best name recognition based on being a senator, auditor, and for some, the Dayton store name (which is fading for a new generation of voters). Name recognition may be a big issue and all of the candidates struggle with it at they move to August 10.

Second, the start of the election season in MN generally begins with voters eying the candidates at the state fair in August. Now the primary comer before the state fair and in August when few voters are thinking about politics. Visions of cabins and walleyes are on the minds of most. One has to assume August turnout, at least this year, will be less than a September one. Who will turn out? Will it be party faithful, the elderly, or will it favor those who can best organize or develop name recognition? Again all good questions.

However, this is where the wealth of Entenza and Dayton come it. I doubt the convention endorsee can raise more than $300,000-400,000 between the convention and primary. Conversely, Dayton and Entenza can self-finance millions. Can they spend effectively to buy name recognition and mobile for themselves? Good question. Think about it. My sense is that the August 10, primary winner needs 75,000-100,000 votes to win the primary.

This is a not a lot of votes. Can money prevail or will August 10, favor the party endorsement? Recent history with the DFL gubernatorial convention-endorsed candidate does not necessarily favor that person, it is more of a mixed bag. My guess is that whoever wins the endorsement this week, that person faces a tough battle in August.

Final thoughts. Endorsements and money are important but so is the political narrative each candidate offers. Candidates need a compelling narrative that describes who they are, their vision for the state, and the vision for what they want to do in office. Narratives are always connecting candidates to the future. Thus far I have yet to see any of the DFL candidates offer a compelling narrative. Kelliher’s April 19, Star Tribune editorial was the first effort I had seen of hers to provide the narrative. It had some nice folksy language but it was vague on the future and not very compelling. One hopes she and the other candidates will hone their narratives and deliver them at the convention and then prior to the August primary.

Good narratives sell candidates. Narratives are the basis of sales and marketing for everything, including politics, and narratives must be about the future. Annie (of the musical) was right–it is always about tomorrow–and good narratives are always about a better day tomorrow. Mondale lost to Coleman in 2002 because he talked about the past and Coleman about the future. Similarly, McCain and Clinton lost to Obama because both talked about the past and not tomorrow. Narratives must always speak to the better tomorrow we all hope for. The task for the DFL candidates will be to find the narrative for the convention, the August 10, primary, and the general election.