Rout and Route: What Happens to Minnesota Democrats on and After Election day 2022

There is the real possibility that Minnesota politics could be a rout this November.  It would be a rout of

the DFL and a major victory for the Republican party, potentially putting the latter in charge for the first time since 1984-1986 when it was the last time the GOP controlled the state legislature and the governorship.  It might also represent the culmination of the Trump and Republican Party effort that first started in 2016 to flip the Midwest.  Of all that happens, what is the route for the Democrats after election day?

The National Scene
Six months ago it would have been an easy prediction to argue this election cycle nationally and statewide was favorable to Republicans.   Generally the president’s party does badly in midterm elections, losing an average of 26 House seats. Six months ago Biden had approval ratings of about 40%, Voters disapproved of the president’s handling of the economy despite the fact that there was record low unemployment and the strongest labor-wage  market in years. For voters the economy was inflation at the gas pump and grocery store.  Voters were also concerned about crime.

Nationally Democrats had either no narrative or a bad narrative when it came to the economy or crime.  But then the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade and abortion saved the Democrats, temporarily.  For several months abortion was the major Democrat talking point nationally and in Minnesota, and it appeared to save them as it motivated many groups, including college educated suburban women.

Until a month ago or even less it looked like abortion would save Democrats. But national polls suggest that abortion has run its course.  The economy or inflation and crime are the top two issues by far, with abortion third or even lower.  This is even true among suburban women.  Polls now suggest that US Senate races where the Democrats were once favored, such as in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, are tightening and it is possible Republicans could prevail.

Minnesota
Minnesota is an American political microcosm.  MPR and Survey USA (KSTP) polls point to an electorate worried about inflation or the economy and crime.  This includes suburban voters.  Polls suggest a close race for governor’s race, Attorney General, Auditor, and even Secretary of State.  Depending on voter mobilization and how the few undecided voters break, these races could go DFL or GOP.  Many think the GOP will win at least the AG and State Auditor.   The DFL holds a narrow majority in the Minnesota House and the Republicans a small but solid majority in the Senate.  The only real tight Congressional race is in the Second District where DFL incumbent Angie Craig holds (according to internal polls) about a one-point lead over GOP Tyler Kistner.  

While I see no chance for the DFL to flip the Senate I am also doubtful that it will hold the House. It is thus entirely possible for the DFL to get swept out of the four statewide offices and lose the second Congressional District.

Were the above to happen, what went right for the Republicans or wrong for the Democrats?

Messaging and Strategy
One answer is that the results in Minnesota are determined by national trends.  An unpopular president, inflation, and crime are macro forces beyond the control of anyone in Minnesota. Republicans rode the wave and Democrats got buried in it.  But such an explanation ignores too much.

Nationally Democrats had no message or narrative on inflation or crime.  Granted there is little a president can do to address inflation, but the talking points were awful or next to none.  The same is true with crime. Biden and the Democrats could have stolen a page from Bill Clinton  and proposed money to hire 100,000 police but they did not.  Instead, they became painted yet again as soft on crime.
The same problem exists in Minnesota. Walz and the Democrats relied too much on abortion to save them.   They were tagged two years ago as soft on crime with the riots after George Floyd’s death.  They were tagged with the defund the police movement and failed to articulate a narrative of public safety.  In terms of the economy there may be little they can do at the state level to address inflation. But the fact that they failed to craft a narrative is a problem.

Moreover, the strategy was bad.  Walz sat on his lead and cash advantage and avoided debating.  It cost him dearly. Recent KSTP polls point to a weakening of his support in his former First Congressional District.

Effectively, Walz and the Democrats have written off all but the Metro region.  In 2018 Walz won 20 of Minnesota’s counties. In 2016 Clinton won 9 counties, in 2020 Biden won 13 counties and Tina Smith 15 counties.  The base of the DFL is narrow and counts on high mobilization in a few Metro area counties.

I spend a lot of time traveling the state to lecture and give talks.  It is clear the Metro DFL agenda on crime, the environment, and social issues don’t play there.  The Metro area DFL, party activists here, or the convention attendees and activists are out of touch with the rest of the state, and perhaps with many leaning DFL in Greater Minnesota and even in the suburbs.  As noted above, polls suggest erosion of support for the Democrats in most locations across the state, including in the metro suburbs and among college-educated women.

Summary: Rout and Route?
To state clearly–The DFL and Walz may have a message out of touch with most Minnesotans who are nowhere near as progressive as the Metro area or core Twin Cities activists. This in turn  renders their strategy to win difficult because it is one narrowly confined or defined to a narrow base.  Moreover the messaging or narrative fails to understand the depth of concern regarding crime and  the economy and its focuses too much upon an agenda that appeals to the progressive wing of the party.  Couple that with a campaign strategy that aims to mobilize only in a few counties, that fails to counter the GOP narrative, that focuses too much on abortion this year, and which, in the case of Walz, sat on a lead, one then gets the makings for a rout.

If that rout occurs, the question on the day after the election will be to ask what route should the DFL have taken to avoid the rout, and what direction should it take going forward?

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz’s Should be Nervous–His Political Fate is Beyond his Control

 Minnesota DFL (Democratic Party) Governor Tim Walz just declared he is running for re-election.  He

should worry.  There is a serious chance he could lose. Minnesota Democrats could also get routed in the 2022 elections.  The unfortunate part for Walz is that he may not be able to do anything to save his campaign. The factors that will determine his fate may largely be sealed and beyond his control.

Walz is in a terrible place 13 months away from the 2022 elections.  Recent polls place his approval rating at below 50%–never a place that an incumbent wants to be.  But it only gets worse.

Walz is in a purely defense mode–also a place an incumbent never wants to be.  A few months ago he could say that his pandemic policies were working and that the state economy was thriving.  No more.  Minnesota is seventh in the country among states with new covid infections and hospitalizations are up to near peak levels. Labor force participation rates are at levels as low as during the peak of the pandemic in 2020.  Supply chain problems and worker shortages are threatening the State’s full economic recovery from the pandemic.  The public has given up on mask mandates and social distancing, and vaccinations are slowing. As cold weather and winter kicks in it is possible for another spike in the pandemic.  And the governor gave away much of his emergency powers last spring to settle the budget.  He has lost the economy and the pandemic as issues to run on.  He has to defend himself.  He lacks a narrative for 2022.

Walz also has a crime problem, much of it not of his doing.  Minneapolis and Saint Paul are seeing record spikes in homicides.  While that is occurring many in Minneapolis want to vote to cut police funding via a ballot initiative.  Mayor Carter in Saint Paul looks hapless regarding what to do after 14 shot and one dead in a bar.  Saint Paul and Ramsey County want to move away from criminal to administrative fines for some infractions.  Ramsey County Attorney John Choi is pushing back against prosecution of some minor offenses.   Ramsey County Commissioners hate Sheriff  Bob Fletcher and have cut his budget.  Democrats look like they are anti-police and soft on crime.  Republicans are tagging Walz and Democrats as the party against law and order.  When people feel insecure, this is not a place to be.

Walz knows crime is a problem for him.  He also knows the Minneapolis police reform proposal is bad politics for the Democrats.  No matter what the ballot initiative actually says, in June 2020 nine  Minneapolis City Council members stood in a park and called for defunding the police. That is what everyone thinks this ballot measure is about, or at least it has been tagged as that.  Winning politics in Minneapolis is losing politics statewide.  Minneapolis is not  the political center of the state.  Working class whites without a college degree are the largest voting bloc in the state. They are Trump people.  They are the Iron Range now, and it is unlikely Walz or Democrats can win this part of the state or rural Minnesota  anymore.  They need big majorities in the Twin Cities, but that may not happen in 2022.

The police reform measure is not even certain to pass in Minneapolis where polls suggest it is unpopular and perhaps becoming less so as the body count increases. If not popular there, imagine how it is viewed statewide and especially in the suburbs, and especially among suburban women in places like Lakeville whom and where the Democrats must win.  Walz, his Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan, Senators Amy Klobuchar and Tina Smith, and Congressperson Angie Craig know the police reform measure is bad politics for them, and probably for all Democrats across the state.  Walz is on the defense with crime and police reform.

Walz is also caught in the middle of his own party which is not united. After George Floyd’s murder, progressives in the party wanted him to take a stronger line on reforming police.  He could not deliver on the legislation they wanted.  Progressives are simply not as enthusiastic for him as they were four years ago.  Conversely, his advocacy for this reforms alienates him from more centrist Democrats and independents–largely those in the suburbs which he has to win.  His coalition is fragmented.

Nationally, Walz is running for reelection when Democratic President Joe Biden has below 50% approval ratings.  With the exception of 2002 (post 9/11), no president has seen his party gain congressional seats in a first term re-election.  Odds are against Democrats holding the US House, it will also be difficult to hold the US Senate.  Walz could be a victim of an unpopular president also facing a divided party and a stalled political agenda.  Democrats are not excited going into 2022, Republicans are motivated.  They smell victory.

Yes, a lot can happen in thirteen months.  Walz could run a good campaign, Republicans could pick bad candidates and have a bad strategy.  Yet right now if I were Walz and the DFL I would be very worried that he could lose, that the Democrats lose the State House of Representatives, and that they are unlikely to take back the State Senate.  This is going to be a more difficult gubernatorial camapaign than many think, especially those located in the Twin Cities political bubble.