Far less than you think. Journalists and politicos want to write the big story and find trends. If there is a special election in one race they see in it a harbinger of a trend. Think of Eric Cantor losing to a Tea Party candidate and how from one race everyone is saying that the immigration issue did him in and therefore Republicans will refuse to compromise on this topic. Maybe it was immigration that cost him his seat, or maybe it was that he lost track with his constituents or simply was complacent in his campaigning. This is what did Jim Oberstar in.
My point is that there are two competing trends in thinking about politics. One is the classic Tip O’Neill line that all politics is local. The other is the belief that all politics is now being nationalized. Evidence exists for both propositions and there are serious questions also whether one can generalize from one event to seeing a trend.
Minnesota’s August 12, primary invites this type of speculation. By now the received wisdom is that endorsements matter and that the turnout was bad. There is some truth to both but more needs to be said.
First it appears that all the party endorsed or party favored candidates one–Johnson, McFadden, Otto, Kahn, and Loon just to mention a few. After what appeared to be a nearly generation-long repudiation of convention endorsements, they seem to have mattered this time and perhaps it is a sign of a trend. Yes they mattered this time but a trend is not something one can leap to yet. This primary the endorsements mattered and parties looked strong because the turnout was so bad. The two are related and when we think about it, the parties do not look that strong.
One of the classic functions of political parties is voter mobilization and get out the vote. Strong parties are generally associated with vigorous voter turnout. But in this primary turnout was 12.8%, more or less confirming a long-term decrease in turnout dating back 30 years in Minnesota when in 1982 31% showed up on primary day. Since then the number of individuals identifying themselves as a member of a political party has decreased, thereby making it harder for parties to mobilize as many people as before. Many of those people are also younger voters or Millennials who are less likely to identify with the two major parties compared to the past. They are also individuals harder to reach by more traditional methods of communication (mail or phone) and instead need to contacted by alternative or social media. Finally, unlike 30 years ago, third parties such as PACS are more powerful today and they along with interest groups perform many of the functions that parties used to perform.
My point is simple. Low turnout and the appearance of party endorsements as mattering last Tuesday went hand-in-hand. Because the parties (and the candidates) did such a bad job reaching and mobilizing voters the turnout was so bad. With turnout so bad we saw young people stay away from the polls and also those who did show up were the hardcore partisans–those whom the endorsement process mattered most to. Come November when turnout is at about 54% things will look different. Parties and the candidates will be competing more with third party groups (PACS, legislative caucuses, and independent expenditures) for influence and they may or may not look as relevant as they did in this primary.
Now of course there are other reasons why turnout was bad. As I pointed out four years ago in a study other states that moved from a post to pre Labor Day August primary demonstrated lower turnout. Four years ago MN had a slight bump in turnout (as did other states with their first August primary) but the longer term trend is for lower turnout. Few people are thinking of politics n Minnesota except for the hardcore politicos. Most Minnesotans barely think about elections until the state fair, or after Labor Day when school starts. Picking an August primary date as opposed to an early one such as June favors incumbents or party endorsed candidates by holding an election when many people are not thinking about voting. June would be better for an primary but incumbents did not want it because of how close it came to the end or the legislative session (assuming it ends on time) and it would hurt their ability to fund raise and campaign.
A couple of other thoughts about Tuesday. This was the first with new excuses early voting. Many thought this would increase turnout. It did not for two reasons. One, few people knew about the change in the law. Second, the evidence is mixed regarding whether early voting really increases turnout or simply makes voting more convenient for those who do vote. Additionally, it is not clear that many candidates knew how to use early voting to their benefit. I remember talking to Scott Honour at one point and he thought he would win because he had the most money and would use it to get people to early vote. I asked him how he was taking advantage of early voting and he said he had a link on his web site for people to download an absentee ballot application. This is hardly a good use of early voting. I heard of similar other candidates operating with similar naive strategies.
Finally, one other argument I had emerging out of this election is that money did not matter–Entenza and Honour lost. Yes they did but in part because they did not use their money effectively and also because there is something that one needs to consider–they were not quality candidates. Both faced many liabilities that money just could not overcome.
So what do we learn from the August 12 primary? Maybe far less and far different from what the received wisdom is saying
Showing posts with label Mike McFadden. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mike McFadden. Show all posts
Friday, August 15, 2014
Monday, June 2, 2014
Handicapping the 2014 Minnesota Republican Chances
The 2014 Minnesota election season has officially begun. The legislative session is over, the candidate filing period has begun, and the Green and Independence parties have already had their nominating conventions and the Republicans just selected Mike McFadden and Jeff Johnson to challenge AL Franken and Mark Dayton for senator and governor respectively. The GOP convention also touched off the effort by the Republicans to reclaim the House of Representatives. Let’s consider some possibilities affecting the Republicans’ prospects this fall. Two factors will be considered: The political math and the narrative.
Political Math
First do the math. Mark Dayton is the DFL incumbent who latest approval rating according to an April Survey USA poll was 49% (40% disapproval), down from a February Minnesota Poll that had him at 58% (29% disapproval). The February Minnesota Poll had DFL incumbent Senator Al Franken’s approval at 55% (34% disapproval) and the Survey USA poll placed him at 46% approval (42% disapproval). Either these two polls reveal a shift in public opinion against them or different survey methodologies, questions, and margins of errors demonstrating small shifts in popularity. In either case, Dayton looks far better in the polls than Franken, with the latter making some marginal if not significant gains in the polls compared to his narrow margin of victory six years ago. But beyond the poll numbers, both candidates have significant fund raising leads over an possible opponents.
All 134 members of the Minnesota House of Representatives are up for election. The DFL hold a 73-61 majority. Republicans need to pick up 7 seats to capture the majority. Fourteen House members have announced retirements, 10 GOP and four DFL. Open seats are generally easier to switch parties than those occupied by incumbents, however, not all of these seats are in swing districts. Michael Paymar is retiring in St Paul and there is little chance the Republicans can pick up this seat. Similarly Mary Liz Holberg is retiring from her seat in Lakeville and there is little chance for the DFL to pick this up. Best estimates are that the total number of real swing seats is in the range of 8-15 seats, with about 12 being the most likely number. Thus, the GOP need to hold all their current seats, including open ones, and then pick up another seven to take control of the House. Not an impossible task, but certainly a difficult one.
The State Republican Party is in better financial situation than it was two years ago but it is still not where it should be and it is probably behind the DFL in terms of fundraising. The Republican House caucus may be doing better in comparison and may get closer to what their DFL rivals have. However, the issue is less in terms of how they are doing in fundraising overall but more in terms of how money may get channeled to specific House races. Finally, there are unknown variables such as how recent court decisions striking down campaign finance laws may benefit either party.
Finally, consider two last numbers. First, Minnesota leads the nation in presidential voter turnout at 75.7% (2012). In non-presidential or midterm elections the state still leads the nation but the turnout drops to 55% (2010). Exit polls in presidential election years place the number of individuals who consider themselves to be DFLers at the 38-40% range, with the GOP coming in at 30-33%. Independence Party members constitute about 10-12%, the Greens one percent, and about 20% unaffiliated. These are numbers than generally favor Democrats but in non-presidential election years much of the 20% drop in voter turnout comes from women, young voters, people of color, and the undecided. Democrats nationally and in Minnesota face a problem motivating their base to vote in midterm elections, and they also struggle to capture the unaffiliated who often are swing voters. Midterm voters are older, whiter, and more conservative than presidential year voters.
Second, the DFL will struggle with this electorate especially given the last important number–President Obama’s poor approval numbers. The Minnesota poll has his approval at 43% and disapproval at 50%, and an April KSTP poll has a more questionable 36% approval and a 54% disapproval; both survey providing numbers historically associated with a bad showing for his party in November.
Third, whatever chance the Republicans have in Minnesota they have to be considered in light of the prospects of their party capturing the US Senate or other governorships across the country. There are other states where the GOP have better chances of picking up Democrat Senate seats, such as in Montana and South Dakota, and the Republicans have to defend more gubernatorial seats than their main rivals. Unless the numbers change in Minnesota quickly, look to see more time, effort, and money spent by outside groups on other races besides those to unseat Dayton and Franken.
Political Messaging and Narratives
Besides the numbers, campaigns and elections are won and lost based on political messages or narratives. This year the narratives will be simple–do you like Obama, Obamacare, and the direction of the country, and do you like what the DFL did under unified control the last two years?
For good or bad, the DFL party in Minnesota delivered on their promises because they were in charge. This is the result of unified government. When all is told the Democrats largely did what they promise, for good or bad. They raised the minimum wage, passed anti-bullying legislation, cut taxes, passed a massive bonding bill, and also did more. The DFL acted like, well, Democrats are expected to act and they made no real missteps or mistakes in the process. They did fail to address the constitutional problems with the civil commitment process for sexual offenders, but no one seriously thought they would do that in an election year. They also failed miserably to pass new disclosure laws for campaigns and elections, and they did a lousy job on infrastructure funding. But come November they will tell the voters that they did what the aimed to do, that it bettered Minnesota, and that because of that they deserve to retain single party control.
But for all that they did, the Republicans will use it against them. All of the accomplishments or victories that the DFL will triumph the Republicans will say is the reason why they should be elected. They will argue that the DFL damaged the economy with a higher minimum wage, that the tax cuts are illusionary given the massive increases the year before, that the Democrats overreached into social issues, and that the bonding bill was simply an example of wasteful pork to buy votes. They will also try to talk about the botched rollout of MNSURE and excess spending on a new Senate office building. Republicans will say the DFL acted like Democrats–as tax and spend liberals–and that their party has a better or different vision on state government. Republicans and Democrats will offer contrasting views on the role of the state in Minnesota, with both parties making the election a referendum on the DFL’s performance. The burden will be on the GOP to convince Minnesotans that they have a better narrative. It may be easier to do with a 2014 electorate than a 2012 one, but still they need to make the case for why Dayton, Franken, and the DFL House should be ousted.
Conclusion
Whatever and whoever the GOP nominate this weekend look to see an August primary. The Republicans will be spending the summer fighting one another instead of quickly uniting against Dayton, Franken, and the Democrats. The Minnesota Republicans, like the national party, is torn in many factions, potentially challenging the chances of them taking advantage of low voter turnout and disaffection with Obama. The Republicans have a chance to flip Minnesota but in comparative perspective, they face an uphill battle to win the governorship, the senate, and take back the House.
Political Math
First do the math. Mark Dayton is the DFL incumbent who latest approval rating according to an April Survey USA poll was 49% (40% disapproval), down from a February Minnesota Poll that had him at 58% (29% disapproval). The February Minnesota Poll had DFL incumbent Senator Al Franken’s approval at 55% (34% disapproval) and the Survey USA poll placed him at 46% approval (42% disapproval). Either these two polls reveal a shift in public opinion against them or different survey methodologies, questions, and margins of errors demonstrating small shifts in popularity. In either case, Dayton looks far better in the polls than Franken, with the latter making some marginal if not significant gains in the polls compared to his narrow margin of victory six years ago. But beyond the poll numbers, both candidates have significant fund raising leads over an possible opponents.
All 134 members of the Minnesota House of Representatives are up for election. The DFL hold a 73-61 majority. Republicans need to pick up 7 seats to capture the majority. Fourteen House members have announced retirements, 10 GOP and four DFL. Open seats are generally easier to switch parties than those occupied by incumbents, however, not all of these seats are in swing districts. Michael Paymar is retiring in St Paul and there is little chance the Republicans can pick up this seat. Similarly Mary Liz Holberg is retiring from her seat in Lakeville and there is little chance for the DFL to pick this up. Best estimates are that the total number of real swing seats is in the range of 8-15 seats, with about 12 being the most likely number. Thus, the GOP need to hold all their current seats, including open ones, and then pick up another seven to take control of the House. Not an impossible task, but certainly a difficult one.
The State Republican Party is in better financial situation than it was two years ago but it is still not where it should be and it is probably behind the DFL in terms of fundraising. The Republican House caucus may be doing better in comparison and may get closer to what their DFL rivals have. However, the issue is less in terms of how they are doing in fundraising overall but more in terms of how money may get channeled to specific House races. Finally, there are unknown variables such as how recent court decisions striking down campaign finance laws may benefit either party.
Finally, consider two last numbers. First, Minnesota leads the nation in presidential voter turnout at 75.7% (2012). In non-presidential or midterm elections the state still leads the nation but the turnout drops to 55% (2010). Exit polls in presidential election years place the number of individuals who consider themselves to be DFLers at the 38-40% range, with the GOP coming in at 30-33%. Independence Party members constitute about 10-12%, the Greens one percent, and about 20% unaffiliated. These are numbers than generally favor Democrats but in non-presidential election years much of the 20% drop in voter turnout comes from women, young voters, people of color, and the undecided. Democrats nationally and in Minnesota face a problem motivating their base to vote in midterm elections, and they also struggle to capture the unaffiliated who often are swing voters. Midterm voters are older, whiter, and more conservative than presidential year voters.
Second, the DFL will struggle with this electorate especially given the last important number–President Obama’s poor approval numbers. The Minnesota poll has his approval at 43% and disapproval at 50%, and an April KSTP poll has a more questionable 36% approval and a 54% disapproval; both survey providing numbers historically associated with a bad showing for his party in November.
Third, whatever chance the Republicans have in Minnesota they have to be considered in light of the prospects of their party capturing the US Senate or other governorships across the country. There are other states where the GOP have better chances of picking up Democrat Senate seats, such as in Montana and South Dakota, and the Republicans have to defend more gubernatorial seats than their main rivals. Unless the numbers change in Minnesota quickly, look to see more time, effort, and money spent by outside groups on other races besides those to unseat Dayton and Franken.
Political Messaging and Narratives
Besides the numbers, campaigns and elections are won and lost based on political messages or narratives. This year the narratives will be simple–do you like Obama, Obamacare, and the direction of the country, and do you like what the DFL did under unified control the last two years?
For good or bad, the DFL party in Minnesota delivered on their promises because they were in charge. This is the result of unified government. When all is told the Democrats largely did what they promise, for good or bad. They raised the minimum wage, passed anti-bullying legislation, cut taxes, passed a massive bonding bill, and also did more. The DFL acted like, well, Democrats are expected to act and they made no real missteps or mistakes in the process. They did fail to address the constitutional problems with the civil commitment process for sexual offenders, but no one seriously thought they would do that in an election year. They also failed miserably to pass new disclosure laws for campaigns and elections, and they did a lousy job on infrastructure funding. But come November they will tell the voters that they did what the aimed to do, that it bettered Minnesota, and that because of that they deserve to retain single party control.
But for all that they did, the Republicans will use it against them. All of the accomplishments or victories that the DFL will triumph the Republicans will say is the reason why they should be elected. They will argue that the DFL damaged the economy with a higher minimum wage, that the tax cuts are illusionary given the massive increases the year before, that the Democrats overreached into social issues, and that the bonding bill was simply an example of wasteful pork to buy votes. They will also try to talk about the botched rollout of MNSURE and excess spending on a new Senate office building. Republicans will say the DFL acted like Democrats–as tax and spend liberals–and that their party has a better or different vision on state government. Republicans and Democrats will offer contrasting views on the role of the state in Minnesota, with both parties making the election a referendum on the DFL’s performance. The burden will be on the GOP to convince Minnesotans that they have a better narrative. It may be easier to do with a 2014 electorate than a 2012 one, but still they need to make the case for why Dayton, Franken, and the DFL House should be ousted.
Conclusion
Whatever and whoever the GOP nominate this weekend look to see an August primary. The Republicans will be spending the summer fighting one another instead of quickly uniting against Dayton, Franken, and the Democrats. The Minnesota Republicans, like the national party, is torn in many factions, potentially challenging the chances of them taking advantage of low voter turnout and disaffection with Obama. The Republicans have a chance to flip Minnesota but in comparative perspective, they face an uphill battle to win the governorship, the senate, and take back the House.
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