Rent Control in Saint Paul: Score Melvin Carter 2, City Council 0

 

Yet again Mayor Melvin Carter has outplayed City Council in his posturing on the recently adopted rent control  ordinance.  No matter what the Council does they look like losers and the Mayor walks away the political winner.

            Were this the first time Council was outmaneuvered it would be  shame on Carter.  But it is the second time this year Council played it wrong so shame on it.

            Earlier this year City Council  affirmed a decision by the Planning Commission to deny a permit to Alatus to develop market-rate housing on the Wilder property located at Lexington and Grand. Its decision was quasi-judicial and under most readings of Minnesota law, it was not subject to a mayoral veto.  Mayor Carter then asked the Council to memorialize the decision in a formal resolution which the mayor then vetoed (as he is allowed to do under the law).  Carter was able to turn an action by Council over which he had questionable authority to override into one which he did have authority to act.   Lacking the votes to override the veto or the will or resources to legally challenge Carter, Council gave the mayor a political victory.  Carter could argue he was championing housing and his veto sent a signal to developers during the election that he was on their side and presumably open to taking their money (which he had already done from individuals at Alatus and Wilder).  He comes out looking good, Council inept.

            Enter rent control in Saint Paul.

            Several months ago, supporters of rent control in Saint Paul secured enough signatures to place on the ballot on November 3, 2021, a proposed rent control ordinance.  It qualified for the ballot on or around June 15, 2021—nearly five months before election day.  Council knew, or should have known, it was on the ballot.   How could they not know?  They had ample opportunity to study it.  Any reasonably prudent Council would have taken some time to ask the “What if?” question.  By that, Council should have asked what if the voters approve rent control, what’s next?  When would it take effect?  How will it be enforced?  Who will enforce it?  How much money and what resources will be needed?  All these are questions the Council should have considered  but there is no indication they did, even though one could have predicted that the rent control proposal might be popular and pass.

            Enter Mayor Carter.  In October, merely a few weeks before the election, Carter announces he will vote yes on rent control but then seek to amend the proposal to exempt new construction, despite the fact that a legal opinion by the City attorney suggested that the ballot proposition probably could not be altered for at least one year under local law.  Both moves by Carter were politically smart.  Carter aligns himself as a populist  and makes it looks like he cares about renters by endorsing the proposal, thereby helping him in his re-election bid, while also sending a signal to developers he is on their side (and of course open to their political donations and support).

            Rent control passes and City Council is shocked.  It is not ready for it.  It has lots of questions—many of which it was negligent not to consider during the previous five months when  they knew it had qualified for the ballot and it could pass.  As confusion mounts over the rent  control measure, Mayor Carter is again asking Council to exempt new construction, contending that the new ordinance does not specifically refer to it.  Council has again been outmaneuvered.

            By asking Council to change the ordinance Carter has placed them in a position of doing something illegal (change the law) and run a court challenge from supporters.  Additionally, if they change the law they raise the possibility of encouraging the rath of voters who supported it when the Council members are up for re-election in 2023.  Do nothing to exempt new construction and  if developers stick to their promise to halt new projects, it is City Council that is at fault for any economic damage to Saint Paul.  Council loses no matter what.

            Carter comes out in favor of rent control and then asks to amend it.  He wins as an apparent populist by supporting it.  His call to amend it will be forgotten by most of the voters but remembered by developers.  He can tell them he is on their side and that it is the terrible City Council that failed to act if they do not vote to exempt it.  If Council does act  to exempt he then gets to blame them  for upending the will of the voters. Carter gets to be populist and a friend to developers at the same time.  Effectively, Carter has shifted the blame to the City Council while he comes out of this politically looking good.

 

The Gentrification of Midway-Rondo in Saint Paul (and why Mayor Carter’s recent veto is illegal and enabling it).

 

Saint Paul Mayor Melvin Carter’s veto of the City Council vote to deny the go ahead on the Alatus

housing plan at University and Lexington Avenue was wrong both legally and from a public policy perspective.  In its vote City Council was acting in its quasi-judicial capacity over which the mayor has no veto authority, and in allowing this housing project to go forward the mayor enabled the already rapid gentrification of the Midway corridor to continue.

The Wilder Foundation owns vacant land at the corner of Lexington and University Avenues in Saint Paul.  This is property in the Midway/Rondo neighborhood, and traditionally occupied by people of color.  It is also an area of concentrated poverty based on the 2040 Saint Paul Comprehensive plan.  Yet is located along the central corridor of the light rail line which has rapidly gentrified in the last few years.  

            When the $1 billion light rail investment was made the intent was to encourage significant private investment, which it has, yet that investment has hardly benefited the neighbors.  Once undervalued land has become the target of acquisition and development as traditional neighborhood business have been forced out, selling their property to developers who are turning it into business and housing for more affluent individuals, making the area from Lexington west a de facto suburb for Minneapolis.  The building of the soccer stadium at University and Snelling and the housing plans for the closed shopping center there all point to a development strategy of pushing out the poor and people of color and replacing them with middle class.  This is a textbook case of what gentrification means, with other studies reaching this conclusion.

            The Alatus housing is part of this plan.  Wilder Foundation, which is supposed to care about individuals of modest means, sees a huge profit to be made in selling the land for development.  The Alatus project would site housing not for individuals with median incomes living in the area, but clearly to attract a more middle class or affluent base.  Such housing would be consistent with other development now occurring in the area, but it would not address the needs of the Rondo residents.  It would ignore their needs and place pressures on nearby by property to sell and eventually push gentrification further.  As a result, the Frogtown Neighborhood Association and others opposed the project, urging the Saint Paul Planning Commission to veto it.

            The Planning Commission vote was close, but it did oppose it.  The vote itself was fascinating because leading up to it there were long vacant slots on the Commission that the Mayor had not filled for nearly a year.  When he did do so it was close to the timing of his announcement for reelection and he staffed it with choice DFLers,  which the Frogtown Neighborhood Association opposed, in part, because they wanted their own appointees.  This was a classic DFL intraparty fight over political patronage.

            After the Planning Commission vote Saint Paul City Council held a hearing, affirming the Planning Commission vote, of which Carter then vetoed it claiming the city needs housing of lots of different kinds.  Similar statements were voiced by the three council members who voted in favor of the Alatus housing.  Coincidentally the three members came from golden triangle of the city bordered south by I-94 and east by I-35.  This is the most affluent and white area of Saint Paul.  There is no debate Saint Paul needs more housing, and it would be good to develop more neighborhoods with mixed-income units to break up concentrated poverty.  But there is also an acute need to address a housing shortage and crisis for low to moderate income individuals.  The Alatus proposal mostly fails on these points.

            Mayor Carter has no legal authority to veto the Council action.  Years ago, I wrote an article contrasting what is called quasi-legislative and quasi-legislative hearings in Minnesota law.  In many cases where city councils act, they are operating in their legislative or quasi-legislative rolls.  This is the case when passing bills, raising taxes, doing a budget.  All this, under state law and in Saint Paul is subject to mayoral veto.  But in some cases, city councils are acting in a quasi-judicial capacity, serving as an appellate body to review decisions from commissions or other bodies below.  If acting in that capacity, mayors have no veto authority and disagreements with the council decisions go to the Minnesota Court of Appeals.

            The City Council review of the Saint Paul Planning Commission Alatus project was a quasi-judicial review.  In cases such as Minnesota Center for Environmental Advocacy v. Metropolitan Council, Handicraft Block Limited Partnership v. City of Minneapolis, and Interstate Power Company v. Nobles County Board of Commissioners, the Minnesota Supreme Court said that an entity was acting in a quasi-judicial capacity when  it engaged  an “(1) investigation into a disputed claim and weighing of evidentiary facts; (2) application of those facts to a prescribed standard; and (3) a binding decision regarding the disputed claim.”    Even more specifically, Handicraft Block has declared city council reviews of decisions by planning commissions to quasi-judicial decisions, which are not subject to mayoral vetoes. 

In fact, council reviews and decisions on conditional use permits, variances, special use permits, and historic preservation have all been ruled quasi-judicial by the Minnesota courts.  While there is no specific Minnesota decision saying a mayor cannot veto a quasi-judicial decision, the logic  is clear. Other states, such as Florida in D.R. Horton, Inc.--Jacksonville v. Peyton, 959 So.2d 390 (2007), have reached a similar conclusion that mayoral vetoes do not extend to city council’s acting in a quasi-judicial capacity. No matter how one views it the logic of current case law is clear—in denying Alatus’ request to build on the Wilder site—the decision was quasi-judicial and not subject to mayoral veto.

            Mayor Carter’s veto of the council action should have no legal effect if precedent is accurate.  Whether anyone sues on this is a good question. But the political effect is different.  As noted, it does nothing to put breaks on Midway-Rondo gentrification.  Two, in an election year, it sends signals by the mayor to developers about where his priorities lie (and perhaps where he wishes to solicit campaign contributions for this and future election runs).

            Finally, as disclosure, let me make three points.  One, write this blog as someone who previously served as a city director of planning, zoning, and code enforcement and who also worked as a housing and economic planner for a community action agency. 

Two, in November 2017 after Melvin Carter was elected, I wrote him a letter from my perspective as a former planner, advising him among things that: “Neighborhoods need to be diversified.  Concentrated poverty neighborhoods are no good for anyone.  There needs to be a mix of people, incomes, and structures in every neighborhood… Make neighborhoods attractive for all to live and invest it.  Deconcentrating poverty is one step in making neighborhoods more opportunity based.  Thus, both place-based and mobility strategies are needed.”

Three, in January 2020, I applied for a vacant position on the Saint Paul Planning Commission with the endorsement of both Councilmembers Jane Prince and Rebecca Noecker.  Despite emails from my council member and me, the mayor’s office largely ignored my application.  Given the mayor’s veto, I largely see why.

Want to Really Help the Poor in St. Paul? Fix the Infrastructure

What might be the better and perhaps more progressive and proven policy to benefit the lives of present or future generations of those in St. Paul?  One answer is opening bank accounts for children at birth. But the smarter answer would be a long-term infrastructure project to fix all the roads, bridges,  sewer lines, and other public assets in the city so that a future generation is not burdened with these costs that they will have to bear if we continue to do no more than the pittance as is presently the case.

The Melvin Carter administration in St. Paul is right to be concerned with addressing the needs of  low and moderate income individuals in the city.  One initiative already under consideration and touted by those who consider themselves as progressive  is raising the minimum wage to $15 per hour.  Elsewhere I have argued that this idea may have limited  impact in that it ignores a more fundamental problem of how a lack of affordable child care serves as an impediment to employment and providing it may be a better anti-poverty  program that rewards work and supports women. 

A second idea also touted by the progressives is opening up bank accounts for all children born in St. Paul.  The idea is premised upon the work of scholars such as Michael Sherradan and David Kirp who argued that child savings accounts (CSAs) would be a way to address the lack of income and wealth characteristic among the poor.  CSAs would include seed money from government to open an account at birth, with in many cases it matching deposits made by parents, or providing tax incentives to build savings.  Overall, the goal of its supporters  is to build financial security and capabilities, and perhaps affect educational outcomes for children and families.

Nationally, according to  the Urban Institute, the United Kingdom briefly flirted with CSAs until abandoned. Canada and Singapore have also experimented with them, and so have several cities in United States.  CSAs have not been around long enough to test whether they have been successful in meeting their goals.  Should St. Paul pursue CSAs, it needs to consider how to pay for the initial seeding of the accounts and then subsequent deposits into them.  Additionally, one needs to be cautious about claims that they will improve educational outcomes.  In general evidence shows educational performance increases with family household income, but simply giving people a bank account at birth does not  automatically translate into better grades or enhanced learning, at least in the short term.  Another problem with CSAs if done at the city level is that recipients of them might not stay in the city as children or adults, thereby depleting the impact they would have in St. Paul. Public investments by St. Paul should first serve the benefit of its present residents and the concept of inter-generational justice suggests the same.

While educational programs, especially early childhood and K-12 are among the best ant-poverty policies,
consider then an alternative–a commitment by the City to plan, bond, and budget for replacing its aging infrastructure over the next few years.  Nationally, the American Society of Civil Engineers rates the US a D+ in terms of its grade for infrastructure.  Minnesota does not earn much better of a grade.  Those of us who drive in St. Paul, know the roads are in bad shape and that the city has aging water and sewer lines.  According to St. Paul Public Works Department, it is responsible for “1,874 miles of streets, 806 miles of sanitary sewer, 450 miles of storm sewer, 107 bridges, and 145 miles of bike lanes.”   St. Paul only has money, for example, to repair eight miles per year of its roads.  The City’s infrastructure is in bad shape, and the problem is being kicked down the street for future generations to finance.  In effect, we are saddling our children with the cost of  fixing a crumbling infrastructure–they will have to pay for repairs we refuse to finance.  How fair is that to them?

If we really wanted to make a difference in the lives of present and future generations in St. Paul the City and is people would commit to a realistic multi-year infrastructure plan.  The benefits in doing this are significant.  First, it addresses a real need–fixing the roads, bridges, and other public systems.  Their decay costs, for example,  drivers money every year in terms of car repairs.  Second, it is a public investment in a public project, having collective benefits for the city that do not run the risk of being exported or lost in the way a CSA can be if someone moves.  Third,  infrastructure investment produces jobs–not just in construction, but a lot of different types, and that benefits current and future St. Paul residents–and there is solid evidence to support this.  Fourth, infrastructure investments help the economy and employers, not just workers.  

Finally, infrastructure investments may be a better way of helping the poor than CSAs.  As noted, they provide jobs, but also they take away from our children the burden of having to assume the debts to repair the City’s infrastructure.  In effect, CSAs may provide funds for future children, but any benefit they bring will be offset by the costs to them for fixing a failing infrastructure.  The real progressive solution, and not just the feel good one, might be fixing the infrastructure.

Advice to the Incoming Mayor of St. Paul, Melvin Carter

This is a letter I sent to Melvin Carter on November 14, 2017.  It easily could have also been sent to
Jacob Frey.

November 14, 2017

Dear Mayor-elect Carter:

Congratulations on your elections as mayor of St. Paul!  Your election marks many important transitions for St Paul. , not the least being the beginning of the shift of political power from the Baby Boomers and GenXers to the Millennials.  This generational shift brings with it new ideas, politics, perspectives on the world, and an ideology about governance.

In many ways your election reminds me of when I worked on a mayoral campaign back in New York where I grew up, helping to elect a then 37 year-old woman who became the city’s first female and Baby Boomer as mayor.  I served on her transition team, and then in her administration as the city director of planning, zoning, and code enforcement.  What I learned then and over my years as a professor and as someone who continues to work with local governments is that there are some basic rules or values of governance that never die, even if politics or values change.  As you prepare to take office, I hope these ideas are useful.

First, remember a city is its people.  Not some of the people in part of the city but all of the people across all of the neighborhoods of St Paul.  For too long mayors have failed to commit development and resources across the entire city, leading to uneven development.  As a result, parts of the city are developing and others stagnant.

In many ways, St Paul is two cities.  No, not two separate cities, but two cities each within itself. St Paul is a shining cities on the hill for those who are white, affluent, and live in the right neighborhood.  But it also a city of concentrated poverty, racial disparities, and lack of opportunity for  people of color, the poor, and those who live in the wrong neighborhoods.  The defining issue for the 2017 St Paul mayoral election ought to have been in part about rectifying the difference between the two cities–providing justice to all to prevent the conditions that led to the deaths of Jamar Clark and Philando Castile, and all the anonymous individuals who are victims of race and poverty.

St. Paul is a great city with a wonderful quality of life, for some, but  hugely segregated by race and income.  It was that way nearly 20 years ago when I worked for the University of Minnesota’s Institute on Race and Poverty and we documented that segregation.  Over a generation little progress has been made.

The issue for St Paul is social and economic equity. Fundamentally, the defining issue for the city is creating economic opportunity for all.  It is making it possible for individuals, regardless of race or neighborhood, to have a decent job, a choice of where to live, a voice in where to send their children to school.  The role of the mayor is steering investment, encouraging economic development, making it possible for people to create their own businesses.  Expand the economic base for all, especially those who are left out already, and that is they way to generate the resources both to finance the city and help those who have been left behind.

Such a vision requires several things.  Neighborhoods need to be diversified.  Concentrated poverty neighborhoods are no good for anyone.  There needs to be a mix of people, incomes, and structures in every neighborhood.  Rethinking the two cities’ comprehensive plans is one step.  Allowing in some places for more intensified or mixed development, to allow some people to  invest in their own neighborhoods will help.  Yet private investors and banks will not act on their own to finance this.  St Paul needs to think of its own investments in terms of streets, sidewalks, and  other services such as code enforcement.  The city can help foster the conditions for economic development in the various neighborhoods, but it can also do things such as provide micro-financing to help some communities and guarantee loans in some situations.  Make neighborhoods attractive for all to live and invest it.  Deconcentrating poverty is one step in making neighborhoods more opportunity-based.  Thus, both place-based and mobility strategies are needed.

But that is not enough.  Businesses or people invest where there are skilled workers.  Strategies to attract and remain college graduates and provide real training for those lacking skills too are important.  Better partnerships among the local colleges, employers, and workers to train and connect businesses to people should be on any mayoral candidate’s agenda.    Quality services, the amenities of parks, libraries, and the arts are too what candidates should be discussing.  So too should they be talking about schools.  No, mayors cannot improve schools themselves, that is not their job.  But they can provide the conditions that make it possible for children safely to go to schools, or to live in neighborhoods that support learning though the maintenance of libraries and communities centers, for example.

Second, stick to the basics.   Cities are about the delivery of basic services.  It is about housing, streets, sewers, water, parks, putting out fires, and arresting the bad guys.  It is not about world peace and global issues.  Recent mayors have forgotten that.  Mayors can do little directly to help schools or improve education but they can stabilize neighborhoods and develop social service and community programs to support schools.

Third, St Paul has finite resources, property taxes are going up rapidly, and the traditional middle class feel squeezed that they cannot afford to stay in their homes anymore, or that they cannot buy or rent a place in the city.  Raising taxes is not always  the solution.  If one wants to raise the minimum wage to a living wage, then one also needs to think about creating the businesses and jobs that will provide these types of wages.

Fourth, remember the demographics.  St Paul is demographically and generationally changing.  Build your political base and plans for a future–do not seek to look backward and simply aim for holding together a coalition from the past but look to what you can do to work with our new residents and future leaders to develop the next generation of leaders to follow after you.

Fifth, it is about balancing economic development with housing, downtown with neighborhoods.  There are connections between the economic strength of Minneapolis and St Paul and how well their  housing does.

Sixth, be realistic.  Develop St Paul as the city it could be, not the one a fantasy pines for.  Make decisions based on real data, realistic projections, and not on political rhetoric and hope.

Seventh, have a plan.    Have a real plan for the city. By that, talk to residents and business people.  Construct a serious Comprehensive Plan with realistic zoning specifications.  Let your planning staff do its job and project what makes the most sense and what is the best use of property, land, and space.  Do not let the market alone dictate what happens–using planning to guide markets.

Eighth, think regionally.  Minneapolis and St. Paul are the largest cities in the state if not in the upper Midwest region.  They are the drivers of the metropolitan economy and what happens in these two cities has a far wider impact than simply what happens within the borders of Minneapolis and St.  Paul.  Think about building regional alliances and strategies not just with one another but also with your suburbs.

Ninth, not only is a city its people, but the public is your customer, your citizens or residents, and your partners. Successful mayors understand that the people they serve occupy all three roles and realize that they cannot succeed unless all work together.

Finally, govern to lead and not simply to get reelected.  Ambition is good but first of all, you are a trustee for the public good, with your first mandate being to serve the communities and people you represent.

I wish you well as mayor.

Advice to Mayors-elect Carter and Frey: Ten Lessons about Successful Governance

Dear Mayors-elect Carter and Frey:

Congratulations on your elections as mayors of St. Paul and Minneapolis, respectively!  Your elections mark many important transitions for the two cities, not the least being the beginning of the shift of political power from the Baby Boomers and GenXers to the Millennials.  This generational shift brings with it new ideas, politics, perspectives on the world, and an ideology about governance.

 In many ways your election reminds me of when I worked on a mayoral campaign back in New York where I grew up, helping to elect a then 37 year-old woman who became the city’s first female and Baby Boomer elected as mayor.  I served on her transition team, and then in her administration as the city director of planning, zoning, and code enforcement.  What I learned then and over my years as a professor and as someone who continues to work with local governments is that there are some basic rules or values of good governance that never die, even if politics or values change.  As the two of you prepare to take office, I hope these ideas are useful.

First, remember a city is all its people.  Not some of the people in part of the city but all of the people across all of the neighborhoods of Minneapolis and St Paul.  For too long mayors of both cities have failed to commit development and resources across the entire city, leading to uneven development.  As a result, parts of the city are developing and others stagnant.

In many ways, Minneapolis and St Paul are two cities.  No, not two separate cities, but two cities each within  themselves. Both are shining cities on the hill for those who are white, affluent, and live in the right neighborhood.  They are cities of concentrated poverty, racial disparities, and lack of opportunity for  people of color, the poor, and those who live in the wrong neighborhoods.  The defining issue for the 2017 Minneapolis and St Paul mayoral elections ought to have been in part about rectifying the difference between the two cities–providing justice to all to prevent the conditions that led to the deaths of   Jamar Clark and Philando Castile, and all the anonymous individuals who are victims of race and poverty.

Minneapolis and St. Paul are great cities with a wonderful quality of life, for some.  But both are  hugely segregated by race and income.  It was that way nearly 20 years ago when I worked for the University of Minnesota’s Institute on Race and Poverty and we documented that segregation.  Over a generation little progress has been made. They remain cities with  neighborhoods torn by concentrated poverty, race, crime, and disparate educational outcomes.  They are cities where wealth is concentrated in the urban core and in a few neighborhoods, leaving many others behind.  Mayor Hodges, and before her R.T. Rybek and before him Sharon Sayles Belton, all promised to put money into the neighborhoods, to delivery economic development for the least advantaged, and either failed or were ensnared in the demands of downtown urban development.  The same is true for Chris Coleman and before him Randy Kelly and Norm Coleman.

The issue for Minneapolis and St Paul is social and economic equity. Fundamentally, the defining issue for the two cities is creating economic opportunity for all.  It is making it possible for individuals, regardless of race or neighborhood, to have a decent job, a choice of where to live, a voice in where to send their children to school.  The role of the mayor is steering investment, encouraging economic development, making it possible for people to create their own businesses.  Expand the economic base for all, especially those who are left out already, and that is they way to generate the resources both to finance the city and help those who have been left behind.

Such a vision for the two cities requires several things.  Neighborhoods need to be diversified.  Concentrated poverty neighborhoods are no good for anyone.  There needs to be a mix of people, incomes, and structures in every neighborhood.  Rethinking the two cities’ comprehensive plans is one step.  Allowing in some places for more intensified or mixed development, to allow some people to  invest in their own neighborhoods will help.  Yet private investors and banks will not act on their own to finance this.  Both cities need to think of their own investments in terms of streets, sidewalks, and  other services such as code enforcement.  The cities can help foster the conditions for economic development in their various neighborhoods, but they can also do things such as provide micro-financing to help some communities and guarantee loans in some situations.  Make neighborhoods attractive for all to live and invest it.  Deconcentrating poverty is one step in making neighborhoods more opportunity-based.  Thus, both place-based and mobility strategies are needed.

But that is not enough.  Businesses or people invest where there are skilled workers.  Strategies to attract and remain college graduates and provide real training for those lacking skills too are important.  Better partnerships among the local colleges, employers, and workers to train and connect businesses to people should be on any mayoral candidate’s agenda.    Quality services, the amenities of parks, libraries, and the arts are too what candidates should be discussing.  So too should they be talking about schools.  No, mayors cannot improve schools themselves, that is not their job.  But they can provide the conditions that make it possible for children safely to go to schools, or to live in neighborhoods that support learning though the maintenance of libraries and communities centers, for example.

Second, stick to the basics.   Cities are about the delivery of basic services.  It is about housing, streets, sewers, water, parks, putting out fires, and arresting the bad guys.  It is not about world peace and global issues.  Recent mayors have forgotten that.  Mayors can do little directly to help schools or improve education but they can stabilize neighborhoods and develop social service and community programs to support schools.

Third, Minneapolis and St Paul have finite resources.  In the two cities  property taxes are going up rapidly, and the traditional middle class feel squeezed such that they cannot afford to stay in their homes anymore, or that they cannot buy or rent a place in the city.  Raising taxes is not always  the solution.  If one wants to raise the minimum wage to a living wage, then one also needs to think about creating the businesses and jobs that will provide these types of wages.

Fourth, remember the demographics.  Minneapolis and St Paul are demographically and generationally changing.  Build your political base and plans for a future–do not seek to look backward and simply aim for holding together a coalition from the past but look to what you can do to work with our new residents and future leaders to develop the next generation of leaders to follow after you.

Fifth, it is about balancing economic development with housing, downtown with neighborhoods.  There are connections between the economic strength of Minneapolis and St Paul and how well their  housing does.

Sixth, be realistic.  Develop Minneapolis and St Paul as the cities they  could be, not the one a fantasy pines for.  Make decisions based on real data, realistic projections, and not on political rhetoric and hope.

Seventh, have a plan.    Have a real plan for your cities. By that, talk to residents and business people.  Construct a serious Comprehensive Plan with realistic zoning specifications.  Let your planning staff do its job and project what makes the most sense and what is the best use of property, land, and space.  Do not let the market alone dictate what happens–using planning to guide markets.

Eighth, think regionally.  Minneapolis and St. Paul are the largest cities in the state if not in the upper Midwest region.  They are the drivers of the metropolitan economy and what happens in these two cities has a far wider impact than simply what happens within the borders of Minneapolis and St.  Paul.  Think about building regional alliances and strategies not just with one another but also with your suburbs.

Ninth, not only is a city its people, but the public is your customer, your citizens or residents, and your partners. Successful mayors understand that the people they serve occupy all three roles and realize that they cannot succeed unless all work together.

Finally, govern to lead and not simply to get reelected.  Ambition is good but first of all, you are trustees for the public good, with your first mandate being to serve the communities and people you represent.

Understanding the Minneapolis and Saint Paul Elections: First Draft

What did we learn from the Minneapolis and St. Paul elections, specifically with Jacob Frey and Melvin Carter, respectively, elected as the new mayors of the two cities?  The simple answer is that what happened in these two cities has significance well beyond their borders.

Turn first to Minneapolis.  It is less clear that this is an election endorsing Frey or voting for him than it was one rejecting the incumbent Betsy Hodges.  After the first round of voting Hodges received 18.1% of the first-choice votes, meaning more than 80% voted against her.  The voters clearly did not like her style, handling of issues such as police use of force or crime or her oversight of the construction on Nicollet Mall.  But that did not mean that any one candidate emerged as the alternative to her.  Council member Jacob Frey did not even receive 25% of the vote.  In fact, the top five candidates split up 96% of the vote, with each receive more than 15% of the vote.  

What emerged was a city polarized and divided.  It is not clear that Frey enjoys widespread support of most of the constituencies in the city, and he clear has a long way to go in terms of his ability to reach out to the business community.  In addition, given his lack of administrative experience and really, his general lack of experience in government (only his tenure as a city council member), and the fact that the mayor’s position in Minneapolis is relatively weak, it will be a challenge for him to govern.  This is especially the case when it looks also as if the city council will have several new comers and it too is divided.  Frey won less because of his positions (in many ways his positions were not so different from Hodges) and campaign and more because Hodges was unpopular, the opposition was divided, and he was the strongest of those who were not the mayor.

But perhaps one of the less appreciated or overlooked events that took place in the Minneapolis elections was that City Council President Barb Johnson lost.  This is an enormous blow and loss of institutional knowledge and skill in Minneapolis.  She held together a factional city council since 2006, and her loss means both a new mayor and council president taking over at the same time.  The challenge will be to figure out how to govern in Minneapolis.

St. Paul’s election was a surprise in the sense that almost everyone thought it would be a close election between Melvin Carter and Pat Harris. In the end Carter won for several reasons.  He had a better campaign, name recognition, and more DFL endorsements that were meaningful.  But also, Pat Harris’s campaign was not as good as many assumed.  But the real game-changer was an ad by the Police union (Building a Better St. Paul) that accused Melvin Carter’s stolen guns as being involved in crimes.  This was perceived as a Donald Trumpish type of race-baiting that backfired.  It energized many to vote and probably also turned away some from Pat Harris who was stuck.  If he fully disavowed the group and ad then he repudiated his base, if he did not act aggressively enough he would be seen as endorsing this attack.  In the end, he waffled, and it hurt him.

Electing Frey and Carter as mayors of the two largest cities in the state is significant for several reasons. First, they are young, and it signals a passing of the DFL leadership mantle to a new generation.  This started already in Minneapolis four years ago.  In St. Paul, with Carter elected and Coleman out, the latter may well be the last White Irish Catholic mayor in the city, recognizing the changing politics and demographics in that city.  Second, both are liberal.  There liberalism will push the two cities further to the left on a range of issues.  This will have an impact not just in the two cities, but both regionally and state-wide.  Regionally, if both cities move to establish living wages for employment in their towns it could have an impact in terms of how other cities in the region have to respond.  Additionally, if the two cities move further to the left, it potentially causes a political schism between the DFL there and across the rest of the state.  It also sets in motion a potential stronger urban-rural or DFL-Republican conflict in the state.

A Note on my Predictions

            So how well did I predict the mayoral elections in the two cities?  In the end I got some things right and some wrong.  There were no surveys or polls to use to help make election predictions, so I was shooting in the dark, so to speak.  In a September 21, 2017 blog I made the following predictions:

Predicted:

Frey 26%
Hodges 24%
Dehn 20%
Hoch 15%
Levy-Pounds 10%

Final first-choice votes

Frey 24.97%

Hoch 19.27%

Hodges 18.08%

Dehn 17.34%

Levy-Pounds 15.06%

The final order of votes after RCV was applied, had Frey winning, followed by Dehn, Hoch, Hodges, and then Levy-Pounds. I clearly overestimated support for Hodges and underestimated that for Hoch and Levy-Pounds.  I let you decide how good my predictions were.

And the Winners of the Minneapolis and St. Paul Mayoral Elections Are...

I don’t know.  But I think it is still Betsy Hodges and Pat Harris, but it is still too close to call.
For two major elections in Minnesota it is odd that there is very little data upon which to make decisions.  Perhaps that is good–not letting pollsters drive an election.  But for those of us wishing to make sense out of elections, the absence of any polling or survey data on Minneapolis and St. Paul makes predictions and analysis difficult. Not only do we not have polling data on who is likely to vote, which candidates are the first choice of voters, and which candidates are the second and subsequent choices of voters, but will also do not have some other basic data about the electorate. 
By that, even though both cities are overwhelming Democratic, we do not know what the real percentages of the electorate are in terms of Republican, Democrat, and Independent.  Even among Democrats, how they break down into how liberal, or whether they are pro-business, environment, or civil rights orientated, or how race factors into voting preference, we do not know.  Largely, unless the campaigns have data they are not sharing, there is little in terms of good research available to make meaningful predictions.  Even more–as someone who worked on or managed more than 50 campaigns in the past–having good data is critical to strategy and get-out-the-vote plans.  Without such data campaigns are simply guessing to what will happen or what to do.  In an era of big data and political micro targeting, on the surface it looks as if the mayoral campaigns in the two cities are largely operating in the dark.
In St. Paul it is a two-person race between Harris and Carter.  For weeks I thought there would be no first round winner and that RCV would be decisive.  At one point I thought Carter wins the first round but Harris takes it subsequently.  The Building Better St. Paul attack on Carter explicitly injected race into the campaign and it perhaps looked to be game changer to give the election to Carter.  That may still happen, but more than a political week of eternity has passed and I am not sure that the racial attack will be as big a game changer as thought.   Race will still be a factor in the election, but in different ways.  Will Dai Thao’s voters come out and only cast a first choice for him?  Will the old White Irish Catholic vote come out strong for the safe white guy Harris?  How motivated is the party base to make Carter their version of Obama?  With a possible 20-25% turnout, the logic of small numbers kicks in and slight shifts in turnout will decide the outcome.
In Minneapolis Hodges is unpopular and has run an inept campaign but she probably remains the favorite to win.  She does so because the DFL machine, if there is one still, favors her, and because still no candidate has emerged as the clear anti-Hodges alternative.  As I said several weeks  ago, Hodges can poll in the low to mid 20 percent in the first round of voting and still win if she is the preferred second choice of most voters. That assumes that among other voters they do not know the other candidates will and prefer Hodges as the devil  they know as opposed to the devil they do not know.  But there is also a chance that Hodges is so disliked that “anyone but her” is the option of most voters, again in an electorate that may be in the 30% range.
We also do not know what the voter ID bell curve looks like in Minneapolis.  Among those who will vote, how liberal and what type of liberals will they be?  For those who are not DFL, pro-business,  or more centrist, if they turn out to vote, Tom Hoch is the likely choice.  If the voters are  looking for the Hodges alternative with name recognition, then Frey is the likely choice and winner.  Minneapolis’s liberalism and voting patterns are much more difficult to predict than St. Paul this election, in part because there are three to maybe four candidates that have a real chance of winning,  and with a total of five who could possibly top 10% in the first round voting.  Perhaps for the first time since RCV was adopted in Minneapolis, it may actually make a real difference in who becomes mayor.
Given the above factors and the lack of real data, predicting who will win on Tuesday is complicated.