And the loser is....Michelle Bachmann: Thoughts on the GOP Presidential Debate

It may not be clear who won the Wednesday night Republican presidential debate at the Reagan Library, but it is clear who lost and it was Michelle Bachmann. It may not be over for her yet, but she left the debate badly wounded and spiraling downward, ready to follow the path already forged by Tim Pawlenty a few weeks ago.

The Rise of Bachmann

Bachmann has had an amazing ride the last few months. Declaring her official candidacy the night of the New Hampshire presidential debate, she won it in part by being the new kid on the block, giving short quick answers, and simply holding her own compared to the other candidates. Her success, culminating in the Iowa Straw Poll victory a few weeks ago, was the product of several factors.

First, unlike the other candidates, she had a clear narrative that appealed to the Tea Party wing of the GOP. Without Palin in the race, the Republican Party remade in the ideology and image of her was lacking a candidate that captured the excitement of the Tea Partiers. Neither Romney, Pawlenty, nor the other contenders captured that excitement and appealed to them. Bachmann did. Thus, with the Tea Party bloc representing about one-quarter to one-third of the party, and with these individuals being highly motivated and likely to attend to show up for a straw vote or a grass roots activity (much like they did in August, 2009 to oppose Obamacare), Bachmann had an advantage for the start in appealing to and motivating this crowd.

Second, Bachmann had a clear Iowa strategy, drawing upon her birth in Waterloo. It was this strategy that knocked Pawlenty out of the race because he tool had an Iowa game plan, but it failed. Bachmann’s social and economic conservatism also appealed uniquely to an Iowa crowd too.

Thus, put together these factors–a remade Republican Party, no Palin or other Tea Party candidate, Bachmann’s message, the Iowa strategy, and her ability to appeal to a large bloc of voters–and you get a straw poll victory.

However, Bachmann peaked in Iowa.

Bachmann's Fall

The roots of her demise were obvious even before Wednesday night. Look at the debate in Iowa before the straw poll. She tangled with Pawlenty and managed to look petty in it. She did not rise above the crowd as she did in the New Hampshire debate. Moreover, she failed to say anything new or significant, simply repeating one-lines she always had–railing against Obamacare and seeking to defend her pithy legislative record against charges by Pawlenty that her accomplishments were insubstantial. Pawlenty was right and when Bachmann stated that her record included introducing the Consumer Lightbulb Freedom of Choice Act it was clear that no lightbulb over her head had gone on. It was beginning to flicker off.

Bachmann’s weaknesses have always been there but magnified in the last couple of weeks, coming into full view last night. Bachmann did not have much of a record of accomplishment. Moreover, she has zero qualifications when it comes to jobs and the economy and with unemployment at 9% plus, her inexperience was a liability waiting to happen. Moreover, Bachmann appealed to a bloc but needed to expand that appeal beyond a core group of supporters. She never did that. In fact, she could not do that. Her rhetoric was always clear in how it appealed to one group of people. There was no way she could redo her message to appeal to a broader constituency. New Hampshirites are fiscally but not socially conservative. Her rhetoric would not fly there.

Moreover, her rhetoric in the last few weeks doomed her too. Comments about earthquakes and floods on D.C. representing the wrath of God did not play well. Moreover, her naivety and lack of gravity and depth on issues was apparent. Other candidates rolled out jobs programs and developed ideas on foreign policy, Bachmann simply repeated her same old lines. Staff increasingly had to manage and apologize for her. She was being handled because who she was, was not working.

Moreover, the new kid on the block status was wearing thin. Remember when Trump, Cain, and Giuliani had risen to the top of the polls, only to fade soon? Bachmann suffered the same fate. Simply, she became boring–the worst fate for a candidate–and she lost the buzz.

But had no other Tea party candidates emerged should could have run a long way with a bloc of 30% of the party. But something happened–Rick Perry.

The Perry Factor

Perry immediately cut into Bachmann’s bloc support. She was unable in the last weeks to stem the hemorrhage, and the same was true last night. So think about how Bachmann got squeezed. She failed to hold on to Tea Party bloc and at the same time failed to expand her base. She was doomed.

Wednesday’s night debate revealed how far she had fallen. She was marginalized. She had few questions directed to her, little camera time, and no one really attacked her directly. When she did speak she repeated the banal one-liners she had used for weeks, revealing little growth or thought. She had no plan for the economy. Her responses were often incoherent and at least twice the moderators pointed out she had failed to answer the question and gave her another chance to answer. She failed on the second attempt too.

This was a big debate for Bachmann. She fell to third in the polls, she lost Ed Rollins and her campaign manager, and she needed to take on Perry and recapture momentum. She did nothing to reverse her decline. Now it is too soon to say it is over for her. The Iowa caucuses are months away. However, she is damaged now and may be in the downward swirl of money and support that Pawlenty faced a few weeks ago. She may not be toast yet but they're getting the butter out now.

Final Thoughts: Perry, Romney, Huntsman, Gingrich, and Palin

Perry is the front runner and may run the course of the ups and downs of the new kid on the bloc syndrome. The most disturbing part of the debate for him was the discussion of the death penalty. In 2000 George Bush looked almost gleeful in describing his record of execution in Texas. Perry came close to this too. Worse, the crowd applauded when he stated how many he had killed. This issue may appeal to a Texas and conservative base but not to a broad swing voter in an America much less supportive of execution than in 2000. Bush talked of compassionate conservativism–there was no compassion in Perry’s eyes or words last night.

Romney and Huntsman were the voices of reason last night. Romney defended Social Security and talked of jobs. Huntsman admonished the GOP not to be the party opposing science–it cannot reject climate science and evolution.

Gingrich? Where was he. He had almost no camera time even though he had important things to say.

Finally, if I were Sarah Palin watching the debate last night I would conclude that it is time to run for president. She too could cut into the Perry base and pull the Tea Partiers over to her. She has an opening.

The Scream! Thoughts on the Iowa Republican Debate

No question about it–the lunatic fringe has taken over the Republican Party. The August 11, Ames, Iowa Fox debate featured calls for the return to the gold standard, the right to choose light bulbs, criminal prosecution for doctors who perform abortions to save the lives of mothers, obtuse readings of the Tenth Amendment, and petty and personal squabbles attacking one another and the media. All we needed was for someone to assert that the Earth was flat and that it was located at the center of the universe. It was enough to make one what to scream!

The debate lacked substantive and constructive ideas. It was devoid of facts, researched ideas, and any sense of real research across the areas of economics and law. While all the candidates were correct in contending that Obama lacked a economic plan for America, none of them offered anything of substance either based upon research and evidence regarding what works or not. It was all pure ideological pandering to a crowd, with sound bites crafted by speech writers. All seemed to think that the only solution was more tax cutting, giving businesses even more breaks than they have now. It was a collective pep rally for trickle down economics, contending that too high of corporate, capital gains, or other taxes were the cause of the economic slowdown. Cain at least was honest in saying that he was not bothered if the tax cuts to corporations resulted in them paying more dividends and not investing. So much for the veneered justification of supply-side economics as a jobs producer.

Moreover, other candidates had equally dismal and shallow assertions about economics. Paul wants to dismantle the central bank and return the US to the gold standard. Pawlenty thinks we can achieve 5% economic grown for many years if we enact his nonexistent economic plan. Bachmann thinks she can turn the economy around in 90 days. Gingrich blames it all on Dodd-Frank and Sarbanes-Oxley–repeal them and all will be fine. Huntsman and Romney simply said trust me–I was in business and I know how to create jobs.

But perhaps the most interesting part of the debate was when pressed about a bipartisan deal to cut the deficit and asked if they would sign off on a deal that would have 10:1 spending cuts to tax increases. None supported it.

None of the candidates seemed to have a sense about job creation or about a role for government investment in the economy to build infrastructure. In doing so, they forget even that Adam Smith in the Wealth of Nations called for this. Or that this is what Alexander Hamilton called for in creating the national bank and in supporting credit and manufactures. All seemed to endorse Ayd Rand economics, a libertarian free for all market place of the survival of the fittest.

But economics was not the only place where crackpot theories prevailed. Constitutionally, they were all horrible. Bachmann stated that the Constitution does not allow the government to require individuals to purchase anything such as insurance. She was unable to square that with her reading of the Tenth Amendment which gives states broad power to regulate, even traditional topics such as marriage. By her logic, states could not require individuals to purchase auto insurance and perhaps even licenses for practicing medicine or doing anything else. Moreover, despite all her defense of the Tenth Amendment, she would take away the power of states to pass legislation allowing for same-sex marriage. At one point the debate degenerated into a discussion of whether the Tenth Amendment would allow states to enact slavery or polygamy.

In 1984 a challenger to Senator Fritz Hollings demanded the senator a take a drug test and release the results. Hollings replied by stating that he would take such a test if his opponent took an IQ test and made it public. Last night’s debate gave me new appreciation for Hollings’ suggestion. Candidates for the presidency should be better informed about the world of economics, politics, and the law. We talk so much about civics education and literacy tests for citizens. Maybe candidates should be required to pass such a test as a condition for running for office.

Final Thoughts: Bachmann v Pawlenty: Pawlenty’s Sexism

The Bachmann/Pawlenty feud is the media highlight of the debate. Both came off looking petty and small. Pawlenty is correct that Bachmann has no real legislative record, Bachmann is correct that Pawlenty has switched on many issues. Leave it there. But both felt they needed to dig at one another, underscoring the deep animosity the two h ave always had toward one another, not only enhanced by their rival Iowa strategies. Yet Pawlenty came off worse. He was given a second chance to criticize Romney and again soft-peddled it. Thus, he was too weak against Romney and too aggressive and petty against Bachmann. This attack reveals a deeper sexism with Pawlenty.

Recall in 2006 his attacks against DFL Lt. Gubernatorial candidate Judy Dutcher when she blanked on a reporter’s question about E85. At one point DFL Gubernatorial candidate Mike Hatch stated about Pawlenty: “Look at how desperate he is, he is attacking a woman.” Hatch took heat for that statement but in retrospect he seems prescient. Pawlenty’s sexism is his inability to confront and challenge men, preferring to pick on others he perceives as weak, such as women. This is the the wimp factor.

Conversely, Bachmann competed for the dumbest answer of the night. When asked to defend her legislative record against Pawlenty's criticisms, she replied: "I introduced the Lightbulb Freedom of Choice Act so people could all purchase the lightbulb of their choice." I am not sure what is worse, that this is the sum of the legislative record that she is proud of, or that she wants to give individuals more choice to select light bulbs than gay people to marry or women to control their reproductive choices.

The Winners are...?

Who won?

Gingrich had real policy answers even if they are wrong. He was correct to trash the super-committee as a lack of leadership and at least his comments about Sarbanes-Oxley and Dodd-Frank, even if wrong, were real ideas.

Romney wins since no one attacked him and escapes with no bullet holes.

Huntsman has the single best answer of the night. When asked about his support of civil unions he said he stood by his position. But more importantly, when criticized for accepting Obama’s request he become ambassador to China, Huntsman replied: "I’m proud of my service to this country. If you love your country, you serve her. During a time of war, during a time of economic hardship, when asked to serve your country in a sensitive position where you can actually bring a background to help your nation, I’m the kind of person who’s going to stand up and do it, and I’ll take that philosophy to my grave." If we had more answers and people like that our country would not be in the shape it is today.