Showing posts with label Amy Klobuchar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Amy Klobuchar. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 27, 2020

The Case Against Klobuchar: Why She Should not be Biden’s Vice-Presidential Pick


            If Joe Biden and the Democratic Party wants to beat Donald Trump this fall selecting Amy
Klobuchar as the vice-presidential running mate is not going to do it.  If in fact vice-presidential candidates do matter the Minnesota Senator may be one of the least helpful picks Biden can make.
            Amy Klobuchar is being vetted by Joe Biden as a possible vice-presidential pick. Commentators such as Kathleen Parker,  David Byler,  Norman Sherman,  and probably every member of the DFL Party in Minnesota think she is the logical and obvious choice.  Of  course, they say, she is the perfect moderate to complement  Biden’s candidacy.  She has won in Trump territory; she will deliver Minnesota and appeal to Midwesterners.
            Let’s start with basics—vice-presidential picks really do not matter much. There is this conventional  folk wisdom, call it  an“old politicians’ tale," or cherry tree history (the reference to allegedly George Washington cutting down a cherry tree and admitting he did it by saying “I cannot tell a lie”)  that vice-presidential candidates  matter and they can be game changers for a candidate.  Some point to John Kennedy selecting  Lyndon Johnson in 1960 and winning Texas as proof.  However, Texas was still a Democratic Party state then.  Moreover, as the single best book on vice-presidential selection has shown, vice-presidential candidates have little impact on voter choices for president.  It is not that Veeps  do not matter at all, but their influence is very slight and the media and politico hype over them is really overblown.  Similarly,  there is little if no evidence that vice-presidential picks can help a presidential candidate win the former’s  home state.
            Let’s assume vice-presidential picks matter;  Is Klobuchar a good choice?  Not really for several reasons.  For one, she is a moderate just like Biden.  The liberal base of the Democratic Party needs to show up and vote in 2020 unlike in 2016 where it stayed home.  Biden does not excite the liberals, and neither does Klobuchar.  Klobuchar is similar to Hillary Clinton’s choice of Tim Kaine in 2016—unobjectionable but not excitable, especially to the liberals.
            Second,  there is  this belief that Klobuchar will help deliver  the Midwest or Trump voters  This is naïve for a couple of reasons.  One, Minnesota  is not like the rest of the Midwest; its politics is very different from Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa.  What plays here does not necessarily play elsewhere.  A Minnesotan on a ticket does not get you Wisconsin.  Proof of that is the second point—Klobuchar staked her presidential campaign on a good showing in Iowa—she came in a distant fifth.  Similarly, years ago Minnesotans Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty thought the Minnesota proximity to Iowa will lead to victory in the Hawkeye State—it did not.  There is simply limited appeal from one state to another.  As far as winning Trump voters, the day Klobuchar cast a guilty vote in the Senate to impeach Trump is the day she lost those voters.
            There is also the issue of maybe placing Klobuchar on the Biden ticket will help the latter hold Minnesota.  Recent polls show Biden in a competitive race with Trump for Minnesota.  Assuming Klobuchar can deliver Minnesota, the  problem is that if Minnesota is really in play and Biden needs her to hold the state then the Democrats are in real danger of losing the presidency.  Minnesota is a must-win state for Biden.
            Finally,  the police choking of George Floyd has all but ended Klobuchar as a viable vice-presidential candidate.  This racial incident, in the county where Klobuchar was a prosecutor, will only highlight the vulnerabilities the senator has with Black voters.  Biden is going to be under even more pressure to pick a person of color as vice-president and he needs  the Black vote to win.
            Amy Klobuchar may be a fine senator and perhaps would have made a good president or maybe even a vice-president.  Yet the issue is whether she can help Biden and Democrats is a  different question and  here it is not clear she can add to the ticket.

Tuesday, March 3, 2020

Biden, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar: It’s my party (and I’ll do what I want to)

Lesley Gore’s famous lyrics It’s my party (and I’ll cry if I want to) are the words to define  the
Democratic Party on Super Tuesday, especially for its moderate wing.  They seem prepared to  take back control of the party in a way that prevents the voters from making the same mistake the Republicans did four years ago which unfortunately resulted in them winning the presidency with Donald Trump.
In my election law seminar I ask from a constitutional perspective who is the party?  Is it the candidates, party leadership and officials, convention attendees, primary voters, or general election voters.  The legal implications of who is the party are significant as they determine whose rights are recognized or prioritized.  Yet politically determining who is the party is equally an interesting question as it raises questions about orthodoxy and what it stands for and whose interests it represents.
For mainstream Democratic and leaders, Bernie Sanders represents an existential threat.  He is an outsider raising the spectre of democratic socialism and supporting the interests of younger people and marginalized voters who have felt they have no voice.  These individuals, including Millennials and Gen Zs, have not seen capitalism work. Their parents or they lost homes in 2008, wages have not gone up, home prices are out of sight, student loan debt is beyond manageability, and compared to other generations at a similar age, they have less wealth.    They like Sanders because he speaks to their reality.  He represents their Democratic Party, the one they want to join.  They are now the largest generational voting bloc in the US and want to assume the mantle of power.
The party they do not want to join is the one of Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Amy Klobuchar, and Peter Buttigieg. That is the party of the Baby Boomers, the affluent who have already made it.  It is of a Democratic Party who has Wall Street members such as former Goldman Sachs chief Lloyd Blankfein and self-described Democrat who said “It would be harder to vote for Bernie than for Trump.”
Establishment Democratic Party leaders, mainstream media, and the political science field are apoplectic over Sanders.  He challenges orthodoxy in so many ways.   He challenges the neo-liberalism of the Party over the last 40 years that pushed the white working class over to Trump.  He also questions the wisdom of the idea of moving to the center to win, contending that with the disappearance of the bell curve shape of the American electorate and the demise of swing voters, it may not make sense to move to the center any more and instead appeal to a new rising generation of voters.  Despite what Democratic Party moderates and mainstream political science contends, there is more evidence than they think that a Sanders’ strategy might work.  After all, it was these same people who thought Trump was impossible.
The point is that there is now a panic within the moderate wing of the Democratic Party.  Fearful of a Sanders’ takeover similar to a Trump takeover of the Republican Party, they are fighting back.  Now many of my political science colleagues scoff, contending that parties are weak and think super delegates would never pull a coup.  However, 70 years the political science profession advocated for stronger party government.    Ask any third party about how strong the two parties are for an answer.
What we are seeing on the eve of Super Tuesday with the withdrawal of Buttigieg and Klobuchar from the race is first recognition of the reality they were going nowhere.  Second, it was fear that their  party was going to Sanders and to those whom they perceived as outsiders.    If Sanders is Robespierre then what is happening now is the Thermidorian Reaction. 
The mainstream  is crying over where their party is going.

Wednesday, February 12, 2020

Rush to Judgement: What we Should or Should not Infer from Iowa and New Hampshire

There are 3,979 delegates to the Democratic National Convention.  To win the nomination one needs
1,990 delegate votes.  After Iowa and New Hampshire only 65 or 1.6% of all the delegates have been awarded.  The primary season has barely started.  Yet many pundits, political experts, and the media want to reach broad conclusions about what is happening.  On one level any inferences from Iowa and New Hampshire should be premature yet already we have declared winners and losers, with some candidates having already dropped out and others seen as frontrunners or not.

Bernie Sanders
On many counts Bernie Sanders is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.  While he is only one delegate vote behind Peter Buttigieg (22 to 21 out of the 1,990 needed to win the nomination), he has won the popular vote in Iowa and New Hampshire and he is ahead in the fundraising battle. 
Moreover, with the other liberal Elizabeth Warren coming in third and fourth  in the first two states, her campaign seems to be floundering, seeming to suggest Sanders is on the cusp of consolidating the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.  At the same time, the moderate wing, represented by Joe Biden, Mayor Peter Buttigieg, Senator Amy Klobuchar, and Mayor Michael Bloomberg, is more divided.
Moderates, worried at the prospects of a Sanders nomination, are touting Buttigieg and even Klobuchar post New Hampshire as winners, with the latter, despite a fifth a third place finish in Iowa and New Hampshire, now the latest alternative to a fallen Joe Biden.

Joe Biden
Based on two states, it looks like former Vice-president Joe Biden’s chances for the nomination are not good.  He has had two dismal showings (fourth and fifth in Iowa and New Hampshire respectively), and he appears to be behind two other candidates, Peter Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar for the moderate vote, and behind the frontrunner liberal Bernie Sanders and even Elizabeth Warren.
Why has Biden done so badly?  Several reasons,   One, the center of the Democratic party has moved left from where President Barack Obama and Biden were when they left office.  Two, Biden has run a lackluster campaign and his debate performances have been weak.  Three, like Hillary Clinton in 2008 and 2016, he is running like he deserves the nomination.  Yet to rule Biden out would be a mistake for several reasons.
Yes the results in Iowa and New Hampshire will create momentum, media attention, and money for its winners, Yet Iowa and New Hampshire are very different from the next two states, and even the rest of the country.  The US overall is 60% White Caucasian, with Iowa and New Hampshire respectively 86% and 90%.  They are racially not representative of the country, let alone of the Democratic Party where according to 2016 presidential exit polls 71% of the electorate was White, but 74% of the votes for Clinton were from people of color.
The next two states, Nevada and South Carolina, are 49% and 64% white, with high percentages of the Democratic voters people of color.  These next two states are very different from Iowa and New Hampshire.  Joe Biden enjoys significant support among people of color, especially African-Americans, whereas none of the other candidates do well with minorities.  This may change the race for the nomination in many ways because candidates such as Buttigieg and Klobuchar will be challenged to reach out to a different racial demographic.  So far their appeal has been to run as Midwesterners with Midwest values, failing to realize that such designations are code words for “White” among people of color.  White may work in Iowa and New Hampshire, but it is less clear it will work in Nevada and South Carolina.  And even if they get the nomination for president, there is a calculus here.  How many White Trump votes can they move (when the evidence suggests Trump has 90%+ support of his base) versus how many people of color do they turn off?  The argument for the moderate Democratic candidate relies upon a net positive sum for this tradeoff, especially in critical swing states.

Michael Bloomberg
Michael Bloomberg now will be an increasing factor as he will appear in debates and in the primaries.  He has already spent more than $400 million in advertising, giving him a fourth if not better place in some national polls.  He appears to poll as well as any candidate in a head-to-head with President  Donald Trump.  Bloomberg’s money will be a factor for all of the candidates going forward, not just for the moderates but also for Sanders who will have to basically run against him.  This divide will be a major problem for the Democrats going forward.

Conclusion
More than 98% of the Democratic delegates have yet to be awarded.  The size of Super Tuesday and especially the frontloading of the California primary change the value of Iowa and New Hampshire.   It is not clear that one can really extrapolate from less than 2% of the delegate count to inferring much of anything.

Saturday, February 8, 2020

Lessons from the So-Called New Hampshire Presidential Debate

What did we learn from the so-called New Hampshire Democratic presidential debate?  The simple answer is that if they keep it up the Democratic Party will debate itself into losing the 2020 presidential race.
The New Hampshire debate, like all of the previous ones over the last few months, was  not a debate.  They have been simply media events, Jerry Springer shows full of one-liners, petty attacks, and vacuous positioning on issues that hardly count as debates and  where CNN or the moderators egg on the participants.  Real debates are when individuals take positions on issues, argue to points, and provide reasoned arguments and evidence to support their claims.  This was not what happened in New Hampshire or in any of the previous debates. There was no substance here.  To recall a famous line Walter Mondale once used against Gary Hart: “Where’s the beef?”
What we saw in New Hampshire was predictably boring.  The front runners Buttigieg and Sanders were attacked by Klobuchar and Biden who has to recover from Iowa.  Warren, Steyer, and Yang did their best to be relevant, and all of them tried to argue that the reason to vote for them was that they hated Trump the most or they were the most electable.  None of them, bar Sanders, really spent much time articulating their narrative for why they should be president, what they hoped to do, or what they sought to accomplish in a meaningful way.  It was a boring Jerry Springer show. 
What one took away was a choice: Vote for an inexperienced frontrunner who takes money from billionaires or vote for a billionaire directly who was a mayor of a city 86X more populous, or vote for me because I tell  folksy Midwestern jokes, because I will do well in South Carolina, or because even though I did bad in Iowa and probably will do so in New Hampshire, I am still the most electable.
Moreover, the debate seemed to show that there is a collective action or tragedy of the commons problem with the Democratic Party.  By that, Ronald Reagan famously declared the Eleventh Commandment that: “Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican.”  For Democrats their Eleventh Commandment seems to be: “Thou shalt only speak ill of any fellow Democrat.”  It is in the collective interest of the Democratic presidential candidates and party not to attack one another, but it is in the interest of each on individually to do so.  The presidential candidates view the presidential race as a zero sum game, I win only if you lose.  The path to the nomination is dirty and attack everyone else, rendering you the last one standing,  fully damaged by the process.
The two biggest winners of the so-called  New Hampshire presidential debate were Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg.  All agreed Trump needed to go but failed to say much beyond that in terms of a clear vision of where to go next.  All of them also could hear Bloomberg’s absence as deafening, feeling the need to attack him because as one watches his ads you get the sense that “Mike will get it done” gut the others are clueless regarding what its is or how to get it done.
The biggest losers were the Democratic Party and the American public.   This media event simply torn one another down and did little to repair the debacle of Iowa.  The American public, still registering high disapproval for Trump and yearning for an alternative, did not find it here, at least with the format offered.

Saturday, February 1, 2020

Iowa and the Real Start of the 2020 US Presidential Election

Monday, February 2, is the official start of the 2020 presidential elections.  It is when the Iowa
caucuses take place.  Here are some thoughts.

What should we expect from this primary season?

The Democratic Primary season starts with the Iowa caucuses.  Traditionally the value of Iowa is that it serves as a testing ground and an way to winnow down the number of potential or viable candidates moving forward.

Based on the most recent polls, There is a cluster of four to six candidates who are still viable: Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg.  Bloomberg is not contesting Iowa.  For the first five, to remain viable going forward one probably needs to finish in the top three.  Specifically, for example, Klobuchar, who has made Iowa the centerpiece of her presidential campaign, must come in the top three to remain viable.  Moreover, if she beats Buttigieg, or vice versa, the loser is probably also going to have a hard time going forward.  Similarly, Warren and Sanders are fighting for the progressive wing of the party and the one who comes out on top will be the leader for that side.

Right now, polls suggest it is Biden and Sanders who are in the lead in Iowa.  Sanders is also leading in New Hampshire.  After that, Biden leads in Nevada and South Carolina.  The point is that very rapidly I can see the race turning into a Sanders-Biden contest, with Bloomberg’s money making him a wild car going into Super Tuesday.  All this suggests that the Democratic Party is still torn between progressive and moderate wings, much like in 2016, and the challenge is finding a way to unite the party.  Which candidate can do that and how is an interesting question.

- What's on stake for the Democratic party?
Obviously beating Donald Trump is the big issue, but so is uniting the party, bringing in the next generation of Democratic voters, and taking back the Senate and making gains in the state legislative elections as one prepares for redistricting in 2021.  All of these events define important political events and challenges for the Democratic party.

- What's the biggest challenge they face right now?
Finding a viable message or narrative to defeat Trump along with devising a campaign strategy to beat him in the critical few swing states that will decide the election.
- Which candidate do you think is best equipped to win the nomination?
Right now it looks like Biden is better equipped to win if one follows a convention strategy.  But he may not inspire younger votes.


- Is there any chance to defeat President Trump?
It will be a close election.
The 2020 presidential race is effectively over in 44 states plus the District of Columbia.  Who will be the next president is down to a handful of voters in six swing states.

Based on recent elections, voting patterns, and polling, a Democratic Party candidate for president is nearly certain to win California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, (overall state) Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York,   Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, and Washington.  This is a total of 19 states plus the District of Columbia.  In the case of Maine, Democrats probably will overall win the state and three of its four electoral votes.  The other electoral vote, which is for the Second Congressional district, goes to the Republican.  Democrats start with 222 electoral votes.

A Republican Party candidate will win 30 states plus part of Maine.  These states are  Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, (Second Congressional District), Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.  Republicans start with 216 electoral votes. 

Yet there are six remaining states–Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania,  and Wisconsin–totaling 100 electoral  votes, which are too close to call and they are the swing states that will decide the presidency.  The task for the Democrats is finding a candidate who can not only hold their base states but win enough electoral votes in these swing states to win the election.  Remember:  The popular vote does not matter and national opinion polls do not matter.

The road to the White House starts with Iowa and ends with these six states.

Saturday, February 9, 2019

Klobuchar Sexism and the Day the Walz-DFL Agenda Died

For Amy Klobuchar, Tim Walz, and the Minnesota DFL, it was a week ripped from the opening line of A  Tale of Two Cities–It was the best of times and the worst of times.  As Klobuchar prepares to declare her presidential candidacy and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and the DFL House majority prepare to move their agenda, reality is settling in to derail them.

Klobuchar’s Management Style: Sexism or a Legitimate Criticism?
During her 2016 presidential run I posed a quiz when it came to Hillary Clinton’s campaign:  What percentage of voters would never vote for her because she is female?  I suggested 30% and most everyone thought I was way too high.  Post 2016, I think I was too low.  Going into 2020 there is still a high percentage of voters who will never vote for women for president and sexism will be the fate any female candidate confronts, whether from the voters or the media.  The same will be true for Amy Klobuchar.
A barrage of stories have emerged from the Huffington Post and BuzzFeed that Klobuchar had horrible relations with her staff  both as US Senator and back to her day as Hennepin County Attorney.  These revelations may be news to Minnesotans but have been dirty little secrets and knowledge among insiders for years.  Klobuchar’s ability to massage the local media largely kept these stories from appearing.  Yet now that she is running for president, Klobuchar is facing the rough and tumble reality of a national media which she has not similarly been able to control.  As long as Klobuchar was simply Minnesota’s Senator, making carefully crafted statements on Rachel Maddow or in a Brent Kavanaugh hearing, she was not going to be attached.  But run for president and nothing is out of bounds.
The question is how much of the reporting is legitimate or sexism?   No doubt many men in Congress are terrible bosses and work poorly with their staff yet little or none of that is reported.  There is a double-standard when it comes to female leaders and Klobuchar is confronting that standard now.  But also for so long she has enjoyed an extended honeymoon with the press, and many of the grumblings and criticisms of her have been suppressed.  Do her personnel policies speak to her fitness as a leader?  Klobuchar’s media honeymoon is over.

The Day the Walz-DFL Agenda Died
The most important and overlooked story in Minnesota politics this week was the Senate District 11 special election where Republican Jason Rarick defeated DFLer Stu Lourey.  With the  exception of one story by Channel 5's Tom Hauser, few appreciate what happened, and even then  Hauser underestimated its significance.
Senate District 11 was a solidly DFL seat for eons, held by Becky Lourey and then her son Tony Lourey.  It was part of the coalition of Senate seats at or near the Iron Range that historically help anchor the DFL majority statewide.  With prior to Tony Lourey’s departure to head Health and Human Services in the Walz administration, the MN Senate was split 34-33, with Republican majority.    Governor Walz, the DFL House majority, and Tom Baak dreamed of picking off at least one Republican Senator to move their agenda.  More specifically, the DFL message to Republicans, especially in the suburbs, was that if you do not support our proposals, especially our top-ten bills, you will be vulnerable and we are coming after you in 2020.  That logic ended on Tuesday.
First, in losing the seat, the DFL goes from 33-34 to 32-35.  Picking off two Republicans is harder than one.  It was already going to be difficult to pick up one Republican vote–the GOP had strong ideological reasons to oppose the Walz-DFL agenda.  Why should they support it and give the Democrats victories?  The DFL promulgation of their top ten bills gave the Republicans their list of the top ten things to oppose.  Frustrate the DFL in their core agenda and then run in 2020 against it.
Second, losing this seat takes away the Democratic threat of 2020.  How so?  If Democrats planned to say to suburban Republican senators vote for our bills or else in 2020, Republicans can now say that we are coming after rural, Iron Range, or greater Minnesota Democrats in 2020.
Third, in losing a solidly DFL seat, it continues a nationwide pattern too seen in Minnesota where there is a big political sort going on.  Greater Minnesota and the Iron Range are becoming more Republican, including perhaps permanently shifting the Eighth Congressional District into the  GOP camp.
Finally, all of this questions the wisdom of Walz picking Tony Lourey for HHS and the DFL thinking a third generation of Lourey’s would do the trick.  Minnesota DFL politics has been dynastic for generations–think of the names Humphrey, Mondale, Freeman, and Klobuchar.  Times change and running on familial connections does not always cut it.
The special election loss portends a near fatal blow to the Democrats successfully get much of anything they want this session, and the 2020 electoral threat has been significantly undermined.  It is too early to say deadlock in the 2019 Legislative session or government shutdown, but it is not premature to declare that the Walz-DFL agenda died last Tuesday.

Thursday, February 7, 2019

Klobuchar for President? Her Chances Are Less than Most Minnesotans Think

More than likely, Amy Klobuchar will announce on February 10, she is running for president. As
Minnesota’s most popular elected official, winning her last US Senate campaign with 60% of the popular vote, everyone in the state thinks her presidential prospects are terrific.   But living in the state it will not be popular to say what this, but her prospects of being a successful candidate are against her and contrary to received wisdom in Minnesota, she faces enormous obstacles either as a presidential or vice-presidential candidate.
There are many problems Klobuchar confronts as a presidential candidate, some unique to her, some to coming from Minnesota, some given the direction of the Democratic Party, and in many ways all three of these items are connected.
Consider first Klobuchar first as candidate.  Yes she is well-known in Minnesota but nationally she is still barely a blip in public opinion polls.  A recent Washington Post poll among Democrats gave her only 2 % support.  Other polls at barely 1%.  Outside of Minnesota she remains largely unknown. Part of that problem is that Klobuchar comes from the Midwest–flyover zone for those on the coasts–outside of the major media markets where candidates such as Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, and Elizabeth Warren come from.  They simply have higher name recognition given their states.  This geographic isolation of Minnesota has historically been a challenge for Minnesota presidential candidates.
Second, Klobuchar is not a rock star exciting persona, instead a classic more subdued Minnesotan.  The personality that might play well in Minnesota politics does not necessarily play well on the national level.  Walter Mondale, Hubert Humphrey, Tim Pawlenty, and Michele Bachmann resonated well in Minnesota but not so well nationally.  Minnesotans like their politicians, but the state’s exceptionalism in politics perhaps means that a different skill set and persona are needed here compared to the national level.
Third, Klobuchar faces a narrative problem.  All candidates need a narrative or message and reason for running.  Hillary Clinton’s problem both in 2008 and 2016 was that she had no narrative beyond she was not Bush (in 2008) or Trump (2016) and it was her turn now.  What is Klobuchar’s narrative?  Simply being against Trump is not enough–all the Democrats running in 2020 will be that.  Klobuchar needs to be more than that, and it is not clear what her narrative is, or it is one that may not play.  By that, most of Klobuchar’s tenure as Senator has been in the minority where she has had little chance to make substantive policy in a polarized partisan environment. Her rel record of accomplishment is thin.
Klobuchar’s major selling point is that she can reach across the aisle and work with Republicans.  It is not clear this is a selling point with a Democratic Party–especially during the primaries–that is moving to the left.
Klobuchar is running as a centrist and that is not where Democrats are now, and rarely has  “Running to the right” been a winning strategy for them at the national level.  Campaigning with the endorsement of George Will does not cut it with liberals.  Clinton in 2016 said her strength was going to be winning over moderate Republicans and winning white southerners (as she did against Sanders in the primaries), and look how well that strategy worked.  The US is even more polarized now and it is less clear that now a Democrat can garner Republican votes.  Orthodoxy in the Democratic Party is now for Medicare for all, free college education, and other big idea economic redistributive ideas.  Is this where Klobuchar is?
Klobuchar’s narrative is her experience–again much like what Clinton ran on in 2008 and 2016. She is a former country attorney and three-term Senator.  But Kamala Harris is a former state legislator, San Francisco prosecutor, California Attorney General, and US Senator; equally if not more impressive credentials, even on the topic of law and order.
Klobuchar also seems to be relying on an Iowa strategy to energize her political campaign.  First, it assumes that because Minnesota is next to Iowa and part of the former’s media market extends into the latter, people in Iowa know her.  Second, since Jimmy Carter in 1976, candidates  look to Iowa for a win to capitulate them into a subsequent victory in New Hampshire and beyond.  There are several problems with this strategy, assuming it has worked and that it will be winning formula in 2020.
Bachmann and Pawlenty thought the Minnesota-Iowa connection would work for them and it did not.  Second, since 1972, there have been 10 Democratic and eight Republican contested caucuses. Only six of the Democratic caucus winners and three of the Republican caucus winners have gone on to win their party’s nomination–only 50% does the Iowa winner go on to capture the party nomination.
But in 2020 things also change in a dramatic way–California and Texas move up their primaries to March 3, and the early voting for the former will start about the same time as the date of the Iowa caucus scheduled for February 3.  Moving up the California and Texas primaries changes the importance of Iowa and the logic of campaigning.  Relatively speaking running in Iowa was cheap by comparison to California and Texas which will take millions of dollars and lots of name recognition.  Kamala Harris for one, will be advantaged by the early California primary and if she does well there and Klobuchar not, Iowa may not matter at all no matter how well the Minnesota senator does.
Finally, what about the theory that Klobuchar’s real aim in running for president is to be I’ve-president?  Contrary to all the folk wisdom (and empirical political science including mine supports this), few if any vice-presidential candidates really matter to tickets or voters.  There is a belief in geographic or other balance with vice-presidents as running mates, ut one has to ask what would Klobuchar add to a presidential ticket?  Will she help a Democrat carry Minnesota?  Will she pick up votes in New York?  Is she a pit bull or attack dog like some Veeps are?  Simply being a nice person whom everyone likes in Minnesota does not make one a strategically good choice for vice-president.
Perhaps Amy Klobuchar will defy the odds and win.  One can wish her well.  But an honest appraisal suggests the odds are against her.

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Beyond Citizens United: Fixing the American elections system

Note:  Today's blog originally appeared in Minnpost on November13, 2012.

In post-election statements, both Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Rep.-elect Rick Nolan called for campaign finance reform. They singled out the role of big money and negative ads in campaigns, demanding among other things, an overturning of the Supreme Court's 2010 Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission. Campaign-finance reform is needed, but the American election system is broken, demanding even broader changes beyond reversing Citizens United. These changes extend to the role of money in politics, voting, and the quality of political debate and information.

Money and politics

Citizens United is one of many Supreme Court decisions that try to define the role of money and speech in American elections. Concern that money corrupts the political process goes back to the 19th century. Beginning in 1907 with the Tillman Act, federal law made it illegal for corporations to make direct political contributions to candidates for federal office. In 1947 the Taft-Hartley Act did the same for labor unions.

Many states have similar laws. The concern, especially with corporations, as Chief Justice Rehnquist once stated in First National Bank of Boston v. Bellotti (1978) is that the government might reasonably fear that a  "corporation would use its economic power to obtain further benefits beyond those already bestowed."  The task is now to prevent the conversion of resources amassed in the economic marketplace from corrupting the political marketplace.

What Citizens United actually did was to say that corporations (and unions) have a First Amendment right to make direct expenditures from their treasuries to make independent expenditures to advocate for the election or defeat of a candidate for office. The decision did not overturn the ban on direct contributions to candidates, but it overturned laws  that made it illegal for corporations to spend money independently to support a candidate for office.

Is Citizens United responsible for the $6-8 billion election cycle spending that just concluded? Yes and no. Prior to Citizens United, corporations already had lots of ways of getting around the law. They could do issue ads that attacked candidates but did not expressly urge their election or defeat. They could set up political action committees. They could fund get-out-the-vote, voter-registration, and voter-education programs. Individual corporate officers could give money. There were many ways around the law.

Citizens United did not necessarily mean that more money would go into elections; instead it meant that money would enter in different ways and with less transparency. Given that it was illegal for corporations to make express advocacy independent expenditures before Citizens United, when the Supreme Court declared that ban unconstitutional there were no laws in place to force corporate disclosure.  The intensity and closeness of the 2012 elections probably explains how much money was spent; Citizens United tells us about why, in part, we do not know who spent it.

In addition the Citizens United decision was built upon in a 2010 Court of Appeals decision, SpeechNow.org v. Federal Election Commission, that allowed for the creation of Super PACS that could accept unlimited political donations from corporations, unions and individuals to engage in independent expenditure express advocacy. With limited disclosure and often innocuous sounding names, these groups provided another outlet for money.

Finally, the transparency problem with money was exacerbated in 2012  by the misuse and hijacking of nonprofits. Basically, there are two types of nonprofits under the federal tax code. Entities classified as 501(c)(3)s are prohibited from engaging in partisan politics as a condition of donations to them being tax deductible. But contributions to nonprofits classified as 501(c)(4)s are not tax deductible, and they may engage in partisan politics  and endorse candidates for office so long as that political activity is not a major purpose of their activity.

There is extremely limited disclosure required on nonprofits in terms of donors, and there are no contribution limits to them. Corporations and wealthy donors used them as laundering mechanisms to escape disclosure requirements.

So what could be done on campaign finance? More disclosure is needed and efforts to pass the Disclose Act to force that is a first step. But partisan opposition to it in Congress has prevented that. Overturn Citizens United? That requires a constitutional amendment and that means two-thirds vote of both the House and Senate and ratification of three-fourths of the states. Little chance there. The Supreme Court could reverse itself, but unless President Obama can replace a conservative Supreme Court Justice, that option, too, looks unlikely.

Yet President Obama could act on his own to mitigate some of the problem. He could issue a procurement rule barring corporations from making express advocacy independent expenditures  above a certain dollar amount as a condition of bidding on federal contracts.  Here the issue is about conflict of interest.

Additionally, he could direct the Securities and Exchange Commission to engage in rule-making to require shareholder assent before expending money for political purposes. The issue here is protecting the First Amendment rights of shareholders not to have their money spent for political causes they do not support.  This rule would parallel those already found with unions and their members.

Third, Congress could change the tax code to require more disclosure for nonprofits that use money for political purposes. The president alone might also be able to direct the IRS to do that.

Voting

The defeat of the voter ID amendment is a rare victory in the battle to fight the second great wave of disenfranchisement in American history. The first wave was after the Civil War and when  Reconstruction ended. It ushered in the Jim Crow era and a 100-year effort to prevent African-Americans from voting.

Voter ID, based on the erroneous claim of widespread voter fraud, is one part of this disenfranchisement. Across the United States in the last few years many states have enacted voter ID and other laws such as cutting back on early voting and restricting voter registration  drives. Pre-election voting-rights litigation was significant in 2012. The United States effectively has 50 different state laws regarding voting. Were it not that Obama won the 2012 presidential race so decisively, problems this year in Florida would be holding up the election results yet again.

One solution is to use federal voting rules and procedures. The Constitution gives Congress the authority to regulate federal elections. Congress could construct rules regarding voter eligibility, ban voter ID, allow for early voting, or whatever else it wants to do. Uniformity and fairness across states in elections too.

Political speech and rhetoric

The final critique is that political campaigns have become too negative and nasty. Maybe. They are tame by comparison to the 19th century. But there are limits regarding what can be done to regulate political speech.  The Supreme Court correctly in its 1964 New York Times v. Sullivan gave broad First Amendment protection to speech that criticizes public officials and candidates. A free society should encourage robust political debate, and it should be the people and  not judges or government officials who decide what is true. Moreover, attack ads will continue to be used so long as they are effective and voters respond to them.

The bigger problem now is that voters have developed partisan choices when it comes to the consumption of news. The world is increasingly divided between FOX and MSNBC. It seems all of us want our own truth now. The rise of the new and social media has done little to encourage voters to seek out alternative information.

One solution to this would be to reinstate the fairness doctrine and vigorously enforce the equal time doctrine, requiring television and radio to offer opposing viewpoints. The public has a First Amendment right to a diversity of viewpoints and broadcasters, as a condition of holding a license, should be required to honor this.

Overall, Klobuchar and Nolan are correct that the American elections system is a mess.  But the causes are varied and the fixes more complex than they realize.