Black Swans, unknown unknowns, and October surprises

 Black Swans, unknown unknowns, and October surprises.  These are the names of factors that could change the course of the 2024 presidential election.  And we may not even know what they are

According to political scientists there are models that predict winners in presidential elections. These models generally look at presidential approval rating and public attitudes towards the economy in the second quarter of an election year.  We know this based on past or “normal” elections. However, the 2024 election cycle is like no other election cycle in American history. There are a whole host of black swans, unknown unknowns, and potential October surprises that could change the course of the election. These are variables that we have not seen previously in presidential elections or events whose course could evolve and change in ways to impact the election.

 

What might be some of these unknown unknowns?   Here are ten possibilities.

 

Will Trump stand trial and be convicted of any crimes before the 2024 election? Going into the election, Donald Trump faces four criminal trials and 91 criminal indictments. His base is with him. However, the battle is for those few swing voters in those five or six swing states that will decide the election.   It is perhaps less than 150,000 voters. Polls indicate that among those swing or independent voters, a Trump conviction could sway and alter their vote, perhaps throwing the election to Joe Biden. If and when those trials occur, we do not know and their timing could very well affect the election.

 

Will the US Supreme Court allow the use of the insurrection clause to remove Trump from the ballot? The insurrection clause was drafted to address problems following the Civil War and to keep members of the Confederacy from serving in office.  States such as Colorado as well as many others are trying to use the insurrection clause as a way of keeping Donald Trump off the ballot. The Supreme Court will shortly be deciding whether or not that clause can be used for that purpose.

 

How will the conflicts in the Middle East Ukraine and possibly tensions with China in North Korea impact the election?   Matters of foreign affairs are always unpredictable. We don't know at this point if the evolution of the Middle East conflict could drag the United States into a full blown war. We don't know how the future progress of a Russian Ukraine fight will evolve. And while the US is distracted by the Middle East and Ukraine, will China or North Korea use this as an opportunity to make moves on Taiwan or to extend their zone of influence in Asia? Any in all of these variables matters of war and peace could impact the election.

 

What will happen to inflation at the gas pump or the grocery store?  The economy is always one of the biggest variables in an election. Last year with inflation running high, presidential approval for Biden was sinking.  Right now, inflation seems to be subsiding. The economy is doing well. However, gas prices are going up again. Inflation has not brought down the price of groceries. Will Americans continue to be disgruntled about the economy? And how will it evolve over the next few months and especially in the closing days of the election? With that, how might international conflict especially in the Middle East also impact gas prices?

 

Will young people or people of color show up and vote in 2024?  People of color and young people (under the age of thirty) showed up to vote in record numbers in 2020. Biden needs that record turnout again to be able to win. He also needs women to show up and to vote for him much in the same way that they showed up for him in 2020 and how they showed up for Democrats in 2022.  Enthusiasm for Biden is not great. What motivated these voters four years ago was opposition to Trump.  Can Biden find a key to get these voters to show up and vote for him, especially in those critical swing states?

 

Will abortion continue to be a major issue, especially for college educated women in 2024? What college educated suburban women do determines the outcome of elections.  If they show up, Democrats do well if they stay home Republicans do well. These women stayed home in 2016. They showed up in 2018, 2020, and 2022. They showed up mostly concerned about reproductive rights issues and the Democrats did well. Will they be motivated this year to show up and vote and  will abortion still be the issue?

 

Will the border crisis change in 2024? Donald Trump is running on the issue of the border crisis. Biden's reelection could very well rest upon whether Congress reaches a deal on securing the southern border and on public’s perceptions regarding how well the Biden administration is addressing the immigration issue.

 

Will there be any Supreme Court decisions in 2024 that could impact the election? Back in 2022, it was abortion and the repeal of Roe vs. Wade that changed the trajectory of the midterm elections. Could there be a similar vote this year such as on presidential immunity from prosecution or  the insurrection clause? Or could there be some other Supreme Court vote that suddenly grips America's attention and mobilizes voters?

 

Will there be any health problems that impact the 2024 presidential candidates? Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden are elderly candidates. It is not inconceivable that health problems by one or both of them could impact the election. The recent special counsel report on Joe Biden painted a devastating picture of his mental health. But what if one or both of the candidates is taken ill and has to leave the race and has to be replaced. How might that affect the trajectory of the election?

 

What is the Taylor Swift impact? Could Taylor Swift influence the impact of the 2024 election by her decision to endorse Joe Biden? Would it be enough to motivate her supporters, younger women, many of them who don't otherwise vote, and could that change the course of the election, especially in those critical swing states?

 

Overall, any or all of these factors could be the black swans, the unknown unknowns, or the October surprise that changes the course of the presidential election in 2024.