Hardball and Overreach: Gutless Democrats and Overextended Republicans

Hardball
Why are Democrats so awful playing hardball and the Republicans so good?

Think about events in the last couple of weeks. The fiscal forecast for Minnesota drops the state budget deficit from $6.2 billion to $5 billion and what happens? Dayton drops his call for a one time special tax on millionaires and the GOP thumbs its nose at the rest of Dayton’s tax proposals.

In Congress, the Democrats are ready to fold on budget cuts.

In Wisconsin the GOP votes to gut the collective bargain rights of unions and Democrats look powerless.

On top of all this where is Obama? He seems ready to offer compromise on health care, he seems unwilling to fight for union rights, he does not draw a line in the sand over the budget. Instead, he seems almost irrelevant to the events going on around the country. On top of which, he seems paralyzed by what to do in Libya.

Yet again I see a pattern. Republicans attack, make demands, and Democrats sit back and take it. There is a partisan fight in American but only one party is fighting. Why is that?

Maybe there is a secret strategy that the Democrats have? Perhaps the strategy is that if they act reasonable and offer to compromise it will force the GOP to do the same? Or perhaps the idea is that if you look reasonable then it will win over swing voters who will think the GOP are inflexible ideologues? Perhaps, just perhaps, this the strategy of the Democrats.

But we see how well it works for them. This strategy worked terrifically for Obama in 2009 and 2010, did it not? It led to the GOP fighting the Democrats on everything, making them look ineffective, and eventually it led to the rout of 2010. Additionally, the strategy of compromise has cost the Democrats dearly. Extension of the Bush tax cuts is one example, production of a mediocre health care bill and a less than half a loaf financial stimulus and regulation bills are also examples. Additionally, by not fighting and trying to look responsible the Democrats have also upset its base and the many voters who elected them because of what they promised and then they failed to deliver.

But Democratic compromise encourages GOP resistance. For Dayton, who wants to balance the budget without any more cuts and with tax increases, his decisions to give up on some taxes simply encourages Republicans to dig in their heels. For weeks people have wondered when will the GOP release their budget? The answer is they do not want to release one. They do not want to be the ones to cut education and throw granny out of the nursing home. Instead, by forcing Dayton to compromise more and more they hope eventually to get him to propose the cuts they do not want propose. Shift the blame to the DFL for all the ugly cuts that will have to be made. This is the GOP strategy. Fight, don’t compromise, make the Democrats back down, and they will eventually do the dirty work. The same is happening in Congress, the GOP are threatening a government shutdown, leading Democrats to panic and compromise.

Perhaps part of why the Democrats are so bad at playing hardball is that they think they are responsible for the government. They have come to believe they are the party of the government and that their job is to protect it and the vulnerable. Good aims, but such a strategy is forcing them into a defensive posture where they keeping giving up ground one step at a time. It is a strategy of retreat, fearful of losing but nonetheless they are still losing.

Or perhaps Democrats are so bad at playing hardball because they really do not believe in their principles in the same way the GOP does. For at least a generation Democrats have been corporate liberals, taking money and cues from the business community. Obama, as I argued in previous blogs, seems bent on proving that he is pro-business to the point that he sides with banks over homeowners and companies over workers. Democrats ape to be GOP-wannabes, and perhaps that is why they do not fight so hard–they really do not believe in what they say they believe.

Or perhaps, in the end, the answer is simple–Democrats have no guts! They have no guts to fight for what they believe in and are unwilling to risk anything to get what they want and what they promised voters. Yes, Democrats are gutless, but why they have not learned that they need to fight is beyond me.

Overreach

Did the GOP overreach in Wisconsin? Polls suggest yes, but will it cost them? There are recall petitions across the state but it is not clear to me that voters will really punish them. Similarly, in MN there is a plethora of antichoice bills being introduced. Will this hurt the GOP?

Think about twin imperative at play in MN. The GOP wants to stay a majority party beyond 2012. To do that it needs to temper the extremist tendencies in its party that want to adopt very conservative anti gay and antichoice legislation. Most of this legislation probably does not command a majority support among the state general population. However, this legislation is popular with its base. Unlike Obama who failed to understand how he needed to reward his base, the GOP understands that. That is why it pushes legislation like this along with voter fraud and other similar bills.

On one level it does not matter if the legislation passes but is vetoed. The GOP has delivered to its base and that makes the happy. Moreover, look to see many of these proposals come back as constitutional amendments next year as a way to invigorate the GOP during a 2012 election cycle that might be more favorable to Democrats. Thus the balance here is how to maintain majority status and not alienate swing voters but at the same time appease the base?

The Democratic strategy seems to be to let the GOP push this legislation, hoping it will show the DFL base and swing voters that the GOP are extremists. However, simply hoping the GOP will overreach is not a viable political strategy. It is a defensive one, placing your electoral success on the hoped failures of the other side. This strategy is no different from the failed one of 2010 where Democrats tried to win by labeling the Tea Party as nuts and crazy. That did not work then and there is no guarantee that perceptions of GOP overreach will work to the Democrats advantage in 2012. At best it might lead to GOPers thrown out but it gives Democrats no mandate.

Don't bet on it: The Foolish MN DFL Strategy for 2012

One of my favorite political cartoons shows a pollster calling a woman, asking: “If the race were held today...” Before he can finish the sentence she replies: “I would be very grateful.”

The sentiment of this woman captures how many of us feel about politics and campaigns. We just cannot wait for them to end. Unfortunately, with the endless campaign cycle it seems elections never end. No sooner had the 2010 elections ended the 2012 election cycle began. Michele Bachmann, even before being sworn in for new term in Congress a couple of weeks ago, already floated a presidential bid. Rumors persist who will run for president, polls are being done on the Minnesota Senate race, and other calculations are being undertaken regarding what will happen in 2012. For Democrats, especially in Minnesota, the hope is that 2012 will be a kinder year for them than 2010 when they lost control of the state legislature for the first time in a couple of generations. All this may be barking at the moon.

I say this because the other day I was talking to one of my friends who lives in Minneapolis. He recounted a conversation with two DFL legislators there recently. When they were asked what it was like to be in the minority, they both responded that they will be back in power as the majority after the 2012 elections. By that, they are counting on the coattails of Obama and Klobuchar and overreach by the GOP to turn a miserable 2010 Republican year into a good 2012 Democrat year. Don’t bet on it.

This is a naive strategy. It is effectively one that says when the voters regain their sanity they will again vote for Democrats. This is a purely defensive and passive strategy. It depends on the steps and missteps of others in order to get elected. This is the fundamental problem with the Democrats for the last 40 years. In 1972 McGovern’s slogan was “Come home America.” Notice how well it worked. In 1984 Mondale’s was “America needs a change.” It did not work. The failure of both candidates was in part the inability of Democrats to offer a compelling narrative to counteract that of the Republicans. Democrats cannot always count on disgust with the GOP and missteps by the latter to get elected. They need to offer a narrative, to provide a set of policies that serve as an alternative. They need to stand for something.

Additionally, Democrats need to fight back if they want to win. The Republicans know how to do that. The Democrats don’t. After 2008 the GOP developed a plan, a message, recruited well, and they took advantage of the Democrats screwing up or failing to define themselves and the GOP. Right now I see little sign that the state DFL is doing any of that.

Maybe the GOP will falter nationally and statewide. Maybe they will overreach. Maybe Obama and Klobuchar will do well and get reelected. But do you want to trust your fate in variables beyond your control? That is what the state DFL and the legislators seem to banking on as a strategy.

Yes, the opposition making mistakes creates an opportunity. But you need to do more than that to win and then to govern effectively. Begin now defining the narrative and themes for what the party stands for. Do focus groups, recruit candidates, and develop a game plan now regarding how you plan to take back the legislature and govern.

There is no guarantee of Obama and Klobuchar wins and coattails. Don’t bet on it for an electoral plan for 2012.

Missed Opportunities

**UPDATE**
If you missed the political panel on Almanac Friday (12/17/10) you can watch the segment here. The panel is at about the show's halfway mark and the debate was kind of ugly!


In politics, as is true with most things in life, timing is everything. Opportunities come when windows open, but those windows do not remain that way forever. The DFL, Dayton, and Obama are the thought of opportunities in today’s blog.

Minnesota Democrats, Mark Dayton, and the Independence Party
Face it–the Minnesota Independence Party is a permanent minor party. After a highwater mark in 1998 when Jesse Ventura received 37% of the vote and won the governorship, the party has fallen into a permanent minor status. In 2006, Tim Penny received 16.2% of the vote for governor, in 2008 Peter Hutchinson received 6.4%, and in 2010 Tom Horner received 11.9%. In 2008, Dean Barkley received 15.2% as a Senate candidate. The party is more than a blip but it does not seem to have enough strength to be a serious challenger for statewide office in Minnesota. My guess, as I stated throughout the 2010 campaign, was that the Independence Party commands about 10% of the voting population. Its members seem to be composed of former moderate Democrats and Republicans, as well as others who politics do not line up with the two party profile.

At the same time the IP is about 10% of the voters, neither the DFL nor the GOP seem able to command a majority of the population. If the governor’s race is considered, there has not been a governor who received more than 50% of the vote since 1994. The 2008 Senate race shows the same, although the 2006 race did produce a majority with Klobuchar. The point here though is that the fate of the GOP, DFL, and IP are connected–all three are fighting for majority status and none can achieve it alone.

In a parliamentary system the permanent minority status of parties forces coalition governments to form and rule. Ventura sort of did that in 1998 when he picked his commissioners from across all party stripes. There is a similar opportunity here now for the DFL and Mark Dayton.

The DFL and Mark Dayton need to raid the IP. There is an opportunity here for the DFL and Dayton to reach out to the IP and bring them into their party. The GOP could do this too but seem to have abandoned this approach recently when it shunned its moderates who supported Horner. These Arnie Carlson and David Durenburger types have no place to go except a permanent minority status within a 10% IP. The DFL and Dayton should reach out to them? What should they do?

* Dayton should appoint Tom Horner and other prominent IP members to serve in his administration
* DFLers should allow IP members to caucus with their party

In addition, now is the time to reconsider fusion. Fusion was a big issue about 15 years ago. It would allow cross party endorsements on the ballot. Thus, as is the case in NY, a candidate for the Democrats could appear on ballot also as the endorsed candidate for the Liberal Party. Here, fusion would allow a candidate to appear as the DFL and IP endorsed candidates. Fusion, which is not legal at present in Minnesota, potentially would allow for a building of political coalitions to form a majority party and the strengthening of a third party. IP voters who otherwise would not vote DFL would vote for the person as an IP candidate. Something that ranked choice voting will eventually allow for the same creation of new majorities, but I am not sure that alone with will do that even though I support RCV as a voting option.

Whatever the practical option is, the simple statement here is that there is an opportunity for the DFL and Dayton here–raid the Independence Party, bring their voters over, and use the chance to create a new majority.

Thoughts on Dayton
A few quick thoughts on the Dayton transition. He has appointed good people so far, most notably Peter Watson as his counsel. The rest of his staff is good, but missing so far from the early appointments is a budget director. With a $6.2 billion deficit and the demands to have a budget in early January, one would think one of the first appointments would have been a budget director. Moreover, none of the early appointments are budget people. He need to act quickly. The best names out there? Matt Smith who was budget director under Ventura and Senator Dick Cohen who has done the budget for the Senate for years.

Lacking a budget person already has hurt Dayton. His meeting with the GOP legislative leadership was interesting and a nice gesture, but they are driving the budget agenda right now because Dayton does not have a budget person in place.

Additionally, Dayton keeps announcing how he is reaching out to the GOP and he seems to be modifying his positions. So far I have yet to detected the same with the MN GOP vis-a-vis Dayton and their views.


Thoughts on Obama
Dayton’s compromise segues to Obama and his signing of the extension of the Bush era tax cuts. He justified the move as a necessary compromise, as a way to get middle class tax cuts, to get unemployment tax cuts, and to stimulate the economy. (See the above video link to TPT's Almanac to see me arguing with Larry Jacobs on some of the following points)

Bad economics. There is some stimulus here but not much. In many ways the tax cuts only continue the status quo and too much of the cuts go to the rich who will not use it to stimulate the economy unless you believe in supply-side economics. Second, despite Larry’s assertion that mainstream economists say it will raise the GDP by 1.5%, that bump is at best short term and wears off by 2012 ( also cannot find economists who are saying what Larry is asserting). Third, the cuts add $900 to the deficit, only delaying the inevitable problems of deficits and eventually spending cuts which will probably hurt the poor and middle class first. Overall, whatever short term economic benefit there is, the benefits are outweighed by the economic problems they create.

Bad politics. This is a naked grab by Obama to get middle class and swing voter support. I doubt it does that. Two years from now they will not remember this. Second, the tax cuts are extended only for two more years and in the middle of the next presidential campaign they will be debated again. Obama will again be unable to oppose their extension and again they will pass. Democrats who oppose them will be unable to do so because opposing tax cuts is never easy.

Obama basically sacrificed his political base and the economy for his political fortunes and I am not sure how much benefit he reaps from it.

Dayton and GOP-led Legislature should act on what works, not ideology and wishful thinking

My latest blog is an piece published in Minnpost. It can be found here.

Dayton and GOP-led Legislature should act on what works, not ideology and wishful thinking
By David Schultz | Friday, Dec. 10, 2010

Explaining the Election 2010 Part II: How and Why Dayton (Apparently) Won

Unless the recount reverses it, Mark Dayton is Minnesota’s next governor and the first DFLer to win since Perpich in 1986. Contrary to assertions by GOP State Party Chair Tony Sutton that something smells fishy when Republicans win control of the legislature and the Oberstar seat but lose the governor’s race, neither fraud nor shenanigans need be invoked to explain the outcome. Instead, the simple answer lies in the fact that Tom Emmer and the GOP ran a horrible campaign and it was only the backlash against Obama and the Democrats that made it as close as it was.

No Fraud, No Foul
At the most simple level, by the logic of Sutton’s statement the GOP should have won the offices of Secretary of State, Auditor, and Attorney General, but they did not. Additionally, Sutton apparently ignores the phenomena of ticket splitting–voting one way at the legislative and another at the constitutional office level. Finally, by his logic, one could argue that Pawlenty should not have been elected, at least in 2006, because of the overwhelming vote for DFLers that year.

No, Sutton’s comments don’t make sense. They instead prematurely raise the specter of fraud, seeking to insinuate that because (in his belief) Franken only beat Coleman due to fraud, the same must be true here. Of course Sutton forgets that Coleman was never able to prove widespread fraud in court and his attorney, when appearing before the Minnesota Supreme Court, admitted the same. As I have written elsewhere, the best studies and empirical evidence on voter fraud is that it is negligible at best. Fraud is the unlikely answer for why Dayton won.

Instead, Sutton’s comments remind me of the great line from Hamlet: “The lady doth protest too much.” The real roots of Dayton’s victory lie in part in how bad Sutton, Emmer, and the GOP were in running the governor’s race.

Dayton’s Candidacy
Unfortunately we do not have exit polls to assess fully why people voted the way they did. We do have election returns revealing that Dayton won the metro area and St. Louis County as expected, and he also did well in other rural areas, at least compared to recent DFLers. But our information is limited. Thus, some conjecture is necessary.

Dayton’s apparent victory stemmed from several advantages he had. First, there was the overwhelming name recognition, especially among the elderly. As flawed as most pre-election polls were, this name recognition helped. Elderly vote, and that matters.

Second, Dayton was the only major party candidate with a lieutenant governor from greater Minnesota (here the Iron Range). This advantage was critical to Dayton’s DFL primary victory.
Third, Dayton had public sector union endorsements because of his stance against more budget cuts. While unions are experiencing declining political clout, one can presume AFSCME got out the vote to help Dayton and preserve their jobs.

Thus, think about it–Dayton reunited the old DFL coalition of urban liberals, unions, and the Iron Range. This is the classic recipe for DFL success in yesteryear. He was the first DFLer to bring this coalition together since Perpich. He did it with a reinventing of the old Perpich slogan of making Minnesota the “brainpower state.” This time Dayton stressed education in general, appealed to female voters, and forged a 2010 version of the 1986 message. How odd? An almost back to the future campaign tactic. Long term, such a coalition may not work, especially if your name is not Dayton, but this time it did.

But one should also not forget Dayton’s fortune helped. He outspent Emmer. He stayed on message talking about education and benefitted from a state less adverse to taxes than the nation as a whole.

Emmer’s Candidacy
Emmer ran a terrible campaign. It started with his convention speech when he declared he would run from the right and not the center. Generally you cannot win from the extreme when you only motivate your base and do not appeal to swing voters. The balance of power is capturing swings. Nationally, Democrats had the swings in 2006 and 2008, but lost them in 2010. Emmer never had them in 2010 since he disavowed them from the start.

Second, Emmer had a terrible summer. His missteps on taxes and tips cost him. He let the DFL paint him as a right-wing nut and he never overcame that image. In someways he was swiftboated by the DFL and like Kerry in 2004, he never overcame that image.

Third, Emmer had a McCain problem. In 2008 McCain knew “change” was the mantra of the year but how to run on change when you are of the same party of sitting president whom the public wants to change? Pawlenty was Emmer’s Bush. Minnesotans wanted change and the DFL tied Emmer to Pawlenty. Emmer talked of change but had the same problem when McCain talked of it.

Finally, the GOP and Emmer tried to use the national strategy at the state level. It worked with the legislative races, but not with the gubernatorial race so much. Sometimes cookie cutter strategies do not pan out.

The Horner Effect
How did Horner factor in? Whom did he hurt? I think he hurt Emmer more, but not for reasons most think.

I participated in a Republican Jewish forum about one week before the election. Sue Jeffers, Mitch Berg, and others were on the panel with me. When someone asked about whether they should worry about moderate GOPS such as Arnie Carlson, David Durenburger, and Al Quie endorsing Horner, Jeffers and others said let them go. They disparaged them as RINOs and were glad to see them go. Emmer and Sutton simply wrote off and ignored the old moderate Republicans, taking the Jim Demint tactic about ideological purity above coalition and victory.

The Horner press conference where many former GOP legislators endorsed him spoke also to that alienation they felt. Similarly, on November 5, I spoke to the Minneapolis Rotary club and lunched with one of my favorite former GOP state senators who expressed the same feeling–they were not wanted!

My point? Horner did not steal voters from Emmer. Emmer never went after them. Even if Emmer were not in the race I doubt Emmer would have gotten them. Either they would have stayed home or at best split with Dayton. But given Emmer’s lack of appeal to swings, Dayton’s victory might have been greater.

The Oberstar Effect
Oberstar lost because he ignored his district and took his victory for granted. It was like a page out of Edwin O’Connor’s "The Last Hurrah." One DFL precinct captain told me she never got a call from the Oberstar people. Additionally, the southern part of the 8th district is more conservative than the northern part and Oberstar was weak there, counting on the northern part to rescue him. It did not because he ignored it.

However, the Democrats on the Range are changing. They are perhaps becoming more of what used to be called Reagan Democrats. This is a concern for the DFL in the future.
Overall, had Oberstar run a better campaign and won Dayton might have done even better than he did.

Conclusion
A better than expected Dayton campaign, a horrible campaign from the right by Emmer, a national GOP anti-Obama surge, and a pathetic Oberstar campaign can account for much of the gubernatorial outcome. One need not invoke fraud or nefarious reasons to explain Dayton’s victory.

Last word
I predicted a 46% (Dayton), 43% (Emmer), and 12% (Horner) result. The final was tally as of today is 43.6%, 43.2%, and 11.9%. Judge for yourself how I did, especially compared to the pre-election polls!

Eyewitness to History: The Minnesota Gubernatorial Debate at Hamline

On Saturday, October 9, Hamline University hosted a gubernatorial debate on campus in conjunction with Fox 9 news. I attended and observed the debate, giving me an opportunity to assess the candidates up close.

The Context

Coming into the debate, my sense is that Dayton had a slight lead of 3-5 points over Emmer, with Horner a distant third at around 12-15% support. The three candidates had some shared goals–avoid gaffes and motivate their bases–but they also had divergent objectives. Dayton has a lead, but his base is less motivated to vote this November. He especially needs to motivate women and the swing voters to turn out. If they do, he wins.

Emmer is behind slightly but his base–angry white males–are highly motivated to vote. Emmer also needs to win some swing voters to his side since I do not believe he can win simply by motivating his base, even if Dayton’s does not fully mobilize to vote.

Horner needed a knockout punch. He may have plateaued by capturing his base and a few swings, but he cannot rise much further unless he can convince voters that one of the other two candidates cannot win in November. Most probably, this means he needs to convince other GOPers that Emmer cannot win, thereby leading to a rush of voters from Emmer to him in fear that Dayton will win.

My analysis assumes at this point several things. First it assumes both Dayton and Emmer are holding their bases and that Dayton is doing better at capturing the swings than Emmer and Horner. In making this argument I am at odds with Larry Jacobs and what his MPR poll states. On Almanac I made these claims and Larry said his poll suggests that there are large defections from the bases of both Dayton and Horner, that swings are more in play for Horner than I think, and that in general the GOP is worried about holding on to its voters. He cites as evidence of the latter the Horner press conference with over a dozen former GOP state legislators endorsing him and the reaction that Tony Sutton had to this press conference.

With all due respect to Larry, I have already made clear why his poll is really flawed. Steve Schier has made parallel claims. I am unpersuaded that the poll accurately captures what the electorate and party alignment is in Minnesota and that means that the lead of Dayton’s is inflated in his poll. Larry’s poll is at odds with almost every other poll and it comes in conflict with recent Rasmussen polls showing both Dayton and Emmer holding 80% of their bases.

Finally, in many ways I do not think that the current GOP cares about other former legislators endorsing Horner. They represent an older GOP party replaced by a new more conservative one. Yes, they do not want to see them vote for Horner, but that is no longer their base. Sutton criticized their actions, but that is not a sign of panic.

About the only thing I agree with Larry and his poll is that it is difficult to determine who the likely voter is. Stacy Hecht well stated this problem on Almanac, with the other three of us (Schier, Jacobs, and me) concurring.

The Debate

This was the 23rd debate. In too many ways the candidates looked like they were going through the motions. Each had predictable answers to predictable questions, and each responded to one another the way you expected.

Each campaign had its groupies there and they applauded on cue. Fox 9 wanted a more contentious debate and encouraged candidates to cut off one another. They wanted theater. The candidates did not oblige, again seeming to prefer the predictable to the novel.

Dayton:

He seemed flat. He did not answer the questions directly and his style was weak. He did little to excite his base. He could have done more to link Emmer to Pawlenty and Palin to excite his base, but he did not. He also did not criticize the others very much and he did not do much to reach out to female voters or swings. Dayton did discuss education which is important to his base but the passion was not there.

His finest moment? Discussing why we need bullying legislation, he spoke of equality and same sex marriage. He also quoted James Madison on why government is needed here–men are not angels.” The nerd in me liked this.

Emmer:

He seemed on autopilot. The answer to everything was cut taxes, less government, and create more jobs. A variation of this was his constant protest that he was the only candidate who has put forth a balanced budget. No one but his base believes this. His answer to a student question about what he planned to do about the high cost of going to school? Schools needs to restructure and if we had more and better jobs then student debt would not be a problem! Hmm, tell that to anyone with huge students debts. Even a high salary does little to address the burden of high debt load.

His defining moment? He came out against new legislation to crack down on bullying motivated by anti-gay bias. He said we had too much government already and that it was up to parents teaching respect and giving teachers more authority to do what they need to do but cannot because of fear of lawsuits. Clearly Emmer was speaking to the base.

Horner:

He was clear with answers and specifics. As a communications specialist he knows how to frame answers. He did a good job distinguishing himself and pointing out he was not a DFLer or GOPer.

His finest moments? Two stand out. First, he gave specifics to what he would cut to balance the budget. He noted JOBZ and ethanol subsidies as two cuts. Also, when responding to Emmer, who said no to new anti-bullying laws because it was a private issue, Horner said when others get hurt it is a public matter.

And the Winner Is?

On style and substance (that is how he looked and in answering the questions) Horner won. However, he did not knock anyone out. Emmer was second, Dayton third. Emmer managed to say what his angry base wanted to hear, Dayton did not do much to excite the passion of his supporters.

Horner’s clock is still ticking but he needs major movement soon. Dayton needs to refocus in the last few weeks and appeal to suburban females to vote for him. Pitch commercials to them. He also has started linking Emmer to Pawlenty and needs to do more of that.

Emmer has his base excited but needs to pick up some moderates. Also, everyone is expecting him to do a meltdown like Hatch did in 2006. Maybe Horner, Dayton, or a third party add will do that. Emmer also has a Pawlenty problem in another way. Pawlenty is unpopular and does nothing for him but as governor he could assist in policy or other ways. However, Pawlenty is off on his Don Quixote-esque pursuit of the presidency and seems uninterested either in Emmer or Minnesota. However, that is another story for another blog.