The 2020 US Presidential Race Ain’t Over Until It’s Over (it’s over)

 

American baseball icon Yogi Berra once declared “It ain’t over till its over.”  Donald Trump,

Republicans, and his supporters can protest all they want, but by the end of December 8, 2020, the presidential race is over and Joe Biden has won… fair and square. It is now time to follow the sage advice of the American actor John Wayne

December 8, 2020 was a momentous day in the 2020 US presidential cycle.  The US Supreme Court rejected Trump’s request to hear  his appeal of the  vote results in Pennsylvania. At both the federal district and court of appeals levels Trump’s claims of voter fraud were rejected.  In the case of the latter court, a Trump appointee wrote the opinion declaring that there was no evidence presented that there was wide spread voter fraud in that state’s election and therefore there was no case.  In turning the president’s appeal down today, the Supreme Court effectively affirmed that point.

Additionally, December 8, is important for another reason.  Under 3 U.S. Code §5, states that have settled on the method of resolving  electoral college delegate disputes before the election and have the disputes settled six days before the electors meet would have them presumptively upheld by Congress on January 6, 2021 if there were any disputes.  This law is known as the “safe harbor” provision. With California having certified its election results on December 4, 2020, that put Biden at 279 electoral votes, and with the passing of the  safe harbor date,  states are free to cast their electoral votes on December 14, Biden will have enough electoral votes to win, and Congress will be obligated to certify the electoral vote count on January 6, 2021.

There is nothing that can stop Biden’s victory now.  The Texas Attorney General’s lawsuit on December 8, seeking to prevent several states from certifying their electoral votes  will go nowhere. The State has no legal standing to challenge what other states do with their electoral votes.  The Constitution gives states nearly complete discretion to allocate their electoral votes in ways they see fit.  Just this spring in Chiafalo v. Washington, --- S.Ct. ---- (2020), the Supreme Court affirmed that point.  Additionally, for anyone who understands American law, Texas has no legal standing to bring the case—it has suffered no legal injury.  The lawsuit is grandstanding at best.

            But then again, all of the lawsuits have been that.  Trump and his allies have lost every substantive lawsuit they brought.  Across state and federal courts, and even with state legislatures, he has had multiple opportunities to show fraud and failed.  The reason why he has failed is simple—there was no proof of fraud.  The courts have adjudicated that, recounts have proved that, legislative hearings have shown that.  You can’t prove what does not exist.

            December 8, was the last hurrah for Republicans.  That is why in states such as Minnesota there were final claims of voter irregularity and fraud.  It was one final effort to appease a base of voters unable to accept the fact they lost in a fair election.

            Ross Douthat’s bloated  New York Times essay offers many reasons for the many people who cannot accept that Trump lost.  But simply stated, cognitive dissonance, confirmative bias, partisan political polarization, and a  pandering fragmented media  in search of audience (and therefore telling them what they want to belief and not what they should know) and profits are the  causes.  It also has not helped that Trump himself is still in denial.

            What now?  Back in 1960 the American actor John Wayne was a conservative who voted for Richard Nixon. But in 1960 he said this after the election of John Kennedy: “I didn’t vote for him, but he’s my President, and I hope he does a good job.”  John Wayne had many faults, but he was an American first and  not a sore loser.  So was  Al Gore and Hillary Clinton in 2000 and 2016 when despite winning the popular vote for the presidential election they lost the electoral vote and the presidency to George Bush and Donald Trump respectively.

            It is time for Mitch McConnell and all the other Republicans in the US to emulate Wayne, Gore, and Clinton.  Put the country ahead of  partisanship and pettiness.  Recognize for good or bad  Joe Biden won fairly, and move on.  It’s over more than ever.

The 2016 Presidential Election: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over

Were the United States elections held today it appears that Hillary Clinton would be the next
president.  At least this is what the polls and political pundits declare.  Yet with still nearly 90 days before the general election on November 8, it would not be impossible for Donald Trump to win, although his window of opportunity is closing.
Consider first that in the US the president is not selected by the direct popular vote where whoever receives the most popular votes wins.  Instead to become president one has to win a majority of the electoral vote.  That number is 270.  The US Constitution created the Electoral College as the means to select the president, creating a complex and confusing process (even for American citizens) where effectively the 50 separate states in America have their own rules and election to select their electors.  As Al Gore learned in 2000, one can receive the most popular votes in the US presidential election but still lose because you did not win a majority of the electoral vote.
Because of the oddities of American party  politics, we are certain already regarding how 40 states will cast their electoral votes.  States such as New York and California are reliability Democrat and will support Clinton while Texas and Oklahoma are Republican and will go for Trump.  There are only about ten states that are uncertain and how they vote will decide who becomes president.  These states are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada. New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin.  These are the swing states, with Florida and Ohio being the two most important.  Thus, the real battle for the US presidency is to win the electoral votes in the swing  states in the race to get to 270.
Now think about what has transpired over the last month.  As it typical after a national political convention in the United States, its presidential candidate generally receives what is called a bump or a rise in the polls.  This is due to the publicity that the convention and candidate receive because of all the television coverage they receive.  Trump’s bump was about six points in national polls.  Coming off of the national Republican convention Trump was tied or had a slight lead over Clinton nationally, but as also tied or in the lead in several swing states including Florida and Ohio.
But then Clinton had her convention and she too received a bump–a total of seven points–and she went back into the lead nationally and in swing states.  Generally post-convention bumps fade, but Clinton’s seems to be holding and today she has a solid 7-8 point national lead and is ahead in all the critical swing states.  She looks today like a certain winner.
In the weeks since the Republican convention Trump has made several major mistakes.  His  often racist rhetoric has scared off minority voters such as African-Americans and Hispanics.  His temperament has raised concerns about how and whether he can be trusted with US nuclear weapons and whether he has the diplomatic skills to work with foreign leaders.  And Trump has simply  not managed his campaign well such that there is even some evidence that his core constituency–angry  white males–are not quite as enthusiastic for him as he needs to have.  Trump needs even greater support among this group that Romney had in 2012 to win, especially given that the percentage of the electorate that is white male is smaller than it was four years ago.  Trump thus needs a bigger percentage of a declining pool of voters and it is not sure that is happening.
Trump’s response has been to blame the media and the news for his bad fortunes and drop in the polls.  He has again changed is campaign staff and it looks like he plans to be even more aggressive in attacking the press and Clinton.  All indications are that he will use of rhetoric of fear and prejudice not too different from what LaPen in France, Hofer in Austria, or the Brexit supporters used in Great Britain.  Whether such a strategy will work in the United States is yet to be seen.  Richard Nixon, whom Trump is modeling his campaign on, successfully used a similar strategy and appeals to law and order in 1968.
But this is not 1968–it is 2016.  There are fewer whites to appeal to now than then as America is more racially diverse.  Second, with Trump’s recent decline in the polls, he may not have  much time to recover.  In many states US election law allows for early voting and the projections are that 40% of voters will cast their ballots in advance of the November 8.  Many voters may thus cast their votes before Trump has a chance to persuade them to change their minds.  In effect there may actually be less than 90 days till the election.  Trump is running out of time to win.
Yet Trump’s other strategy–to claim the election is rigged–is meant to perhaps intimidate some voters from showing up to vote.  In effect it is a variation of voter suppression.  Yet claims of a rigged vote might also discourage some of his supporting from voting, thinking that it might not matter.  All this of course is conjecture.
However, three political debates are scheduled between Clinton and Trump, there is the possibility of a terrorist attack, or something else might change the election dynamics in the next few weeks. There is another Wikileaks dump of e-mails and I can see the House of Representatives moving to try to have Clinton indicted for perjury under oath arising out of her testimony before Congress.  All these could damage her again in ways uncertain.  Yet right now the electoral chances for Clinton look very good.  But still anything can happen. As Yogi Berra once said:  "It ain't over till it's over."