Showing posts with label densification. Show all posts
Showing posts with label densification. Show all posts

Sunday, September 10, 2023

Sprawl v. Densification: A Hobson Environmental Choice for Cities

 

A Minnesota court and law has just dealt a major blow to the latest trend in urban planning theory—


densification and the elimination of single-family zoning. The implications of this decision should force cities and metropolitan areas to rethink the environmental tradeoffs between continued sprawl and urban density.

            New Urbanism declared urban sprawl bad for many reasons.  Among them, sprawl produced inefficient use of land and resources.  It forced the  use of cars on paved roads resulting in pollution and the use of carbon fuels.  It resulted in mega homes too costly to heat or cool and green lawns that used up too much water.  Sprawl was an environmental problem.

            The solution was  densification.  If cities were eliminate single-family zoning and encourage greater density of housing and business, it would be good for the environment, especially if coupled with the encouragement of  mass transit.  It would   yield a better use of land, provide for less use of carbon fuels and private cars to move people around.  Additionally, elimination of single-family zoning would encourage the building of more affordable housing and address the legacy of residential racial segregation.

            Minneapolis was the first on board with this idea.  Its 2040 comprehensive plan was heralded by the planning community as a major progressive reform.  It provided the model for other cities contemplating similar action to addressing a host of problems.

            But somewhere along the line the City of Minneapolis and reformers neglected to think about the environmental impact of densification.  A coalition of environmental groups challenged the Minneapolis 2040 plan, contending that it violated Minnesota’s Environmental Rights Act.  They brought suit contend that comp plans were subject to state environmental impact statement reviews.  The Minnesota Supreme Court ultimately agreed and finally on September 5, 2023 a Minnesota Court reached  a final order  declaring the 2024 Plan in violation of  state environmental laws and enjoined it enforcement.

            In reaching its decision a Minnesota District Court reached several findings of fact.  It found that densification and the plan to add nearly 150,00 residents to the city by 2040  would include among other things  increased noise impacts, pedestrian traffic, vehicle traffic and  vehicle congestion and idling.  It would result in decreased air quality, increased parking constraints, reductions of privacy, increased light and glare from buildings, decreased access to light for surrounding properties, shadowing of adjacent properties,  and impacts of existing solar panels on neighboring structures.  The  Court also noted that densification would produce more hard surfaces, exacerbating water runoffs and heat island effects.  Overall, simple densification would produce significant problems that the City had not accounted for.

            For now and pending appeals, Minneapolis cannot enforce the 2040 Comp Plan and it must continue to use the existing one.  But longer term the court opinion, if upheld, poses a Hobson’s choice for planners and metro areas.  Urban sprawl  poses  environmental problems as does renewed urban densification. 

How we assess the competing environmental tradeoffs in these competing  approaches suggest that  there needs to be a better balance or assessment in how cities and suburbs are constructed, and that will require  a rethinking of the types of housing built and where, and how we move people from place to place.  We also need to rethink  issues such as greenspace location and a host of other issues.    Perhaps the pandemic  and then changing patterns of where people are choosing to live  and work is the opportunity for this.  But for now the Minnesota courts are forcing reformers to rethink the environmental consequences of the latest  trend in planning.

Sunday, April 16, 2023

The False Promise of Housing Deregulation: Why Densification Policies will Fail to Produce Affordable Housing

 Minneapolis is the city de jour when it comes to housing policy.  Planners across the nation herald the elimination of single-family zoning as a terrific move that will lead to the construction of more housing.  More housing, as the story goes, will lower housing costs and perhaps desegregate.  In effect, densification produces more and cheaper housing.


St. Paul seems to believe this too.

If only this were true.  I find it ironic that erstwhile so-called progressives have bought into the idea that simply deregulating land use laws will produce more housing construction, especially that which is affordable.  I can not think of two many other areas of social policy where progressives believe less regulation is good and that letting market forces operate will produce equitable solutions.  Yes, in many cases and places markets make sense, but does it when it comes to housing, especially housing that is affordable for those of low and moderate income?

I have been a repeated critic of the direction Minneapolis is taking in terms of housing–specifically arguing that Minneapolis’s 2040 plan is highly flawed and naïve.  The idea that “Let them build it and they will solve the housing problem” is a mantra of many.  I have argued that the simple deregulation of housing markets will not produce more affordable housing. Left to their own devices, developers will build high-end housing for the rich and not units for low to moderate income people because the former is more profitable.

Such an approach is simply a neo-liberal pro free market approach.

Housing markets are segmented–the market for high end units does little to depress costs for other types of units. If we want more affordable units we need to build them, or create incentives and structures to do that–simply dezoning or deregulating housing markets will not accomplish that.

The best evidence to support my claim is a recent article that appeared in Urban Studies (a pre-publication version is found here).  In a study by researchers at the Urban Institute they found that easing land use restrictions may not increase housing supply or decrease housing prices.  Their study was based on generate(d) a dataset of a variety of land-use reforms across eight US metropolitan regions encompassing 1,136 cities from 2000 to 2019.

Their major conclusion: Let us quote:

“We find that reforms that loosen restrictions are associated with a statistically  significant, 0.8% increase in housing supply within 3 to 9 years of reform passage, accounting for new and existing stock. This increase occurs predominantly for units at the higher end of the rent price distribution; we find no statistically significant evidence that additional lower-cost units became available or moderated in cost in the years following.”

The evidence is simply not there that unrestricted building that is supposed to occur as a result of deregulated zoning produces more affordable units.

There may be reasons to densify, but it will not yield the type of housing that is needed.  It will instead produce the type of housing that is most profitable to developers.