Politics is like an attractive nuisance. There are so many reasons why what politicians do annoy us, but nonetheless political junkies remain attracted to the stories in the news. Yes politics has turned into entertainment and campaigns and elections often seem like farces, but that should not distract us from the reality that politics and government are important.
Government does matter in terms of what it does and, while we often forget it, government in the US has accomplished a lot and made powerful positive differences in our lives. Ranging from landing a man on the Moon, fluoridating water to improve dental health, or producing tap water, roads, bridges, and arresting the bad guys and putting out fires, government matters. Free markets are fine in their place, but they have proved to be incapable of addressing many problems our society confronts. Having said all that as an important reminder to those who see government as bad or evil, there are several stories in the news this week that highlight what many see as the bad side of politics.
Trump: “Have you no sense of decency?”
The witch hunts of the 1950s McCarthy era crashed to a close on June 9, 1954. After Senator Joe McCarthy during a public hearing made another allegation about someone’s political affiliations, Joseph Welsh, chief counsel for the US Army retorted: “You've done enough. Have you no sense of decency, sir? At long last, have you left no sense of decency?” Welch’s comments exposed the reckless and cruel attacks of McCarthy as nothing more than shameful rhetoric made for personal political gain. Maybe Donald Trump has finally had his Welsh moment.
For months there has been a death watch as Trump insulted one group after another. It has included military POWS, women, Muslims, non-mainline Christians, and now individuals with handicaps. This latest was mocking a NY Times reporter’s physical handicap. Till now the comments seemed not to hurt him. Instead the controversies only gave him media coverage, giving him attention in ways that bullies get attention when they pick on someone. It may still be the case that Trump’s latest comments will not hurt him long term and that he remains the favorite in the polls among Republicans. Yet a recent Reuters poll shows a 12% drop in his support among Republicans in the last week. Is it possible that he has finally reached a point where he has insulted enough Americans that he has crossed the line? When do you think he will pick on orphans, kick a dog, or spit at someone?
Clearly something has changed. Check out John Kasich ad where Trump is compared to Hitler. This is a hard hitting ad that points out how Trump has gone after one group after another just like Hitler (and McCarthy) did. Surprising that the ad is by a candidate and not a SuperPac. But it does appear that other candidates are no longer afraid of Trump.
Trump Part II: @!*&%# Off!
Trump has had a major impact on the Republican presidential race in many ways, including his use of foul language. The NY Times reports that other GOP candidates are now also swearing on the campaign circuit. The road to macho must be through the seven words that George Carlin could not say on television (and which Bono got fined for using) but which candidates for president can now freely deploy. I a waiting for the next Republican debate where Kasich turns to Trump and says “F— off!” If that happens we are not far from the classic SNL routine where Dan Aykroyd and Jane Curtin do a mock debate, ending with the famous line “Jane you ignorant slut.”
Why we hate politicians
Ann Lenczewski was a well respected member of the Minnesota House of Representative. She was perhaps the leading expert on tax policy. Yet she recently announced her resignation to join a law firm to become a lobbyist lobbying the state legislature. In a recent interview in Politics in Minnesota when asked about the fact that this looks really bad she replied:
“That’s understandable. If the Legislature would pass a law, which has never happened, and a governor would sign it, that would say you can’t lobby for one or two years, I would follow the law. ...Many former House members have gone on to be lobbyists:...there’s dozens and dozens of them...The House has a rule [against lobbying], but it only applies if you’re a member of the House.”
Her answer is akin to the “if everyone else is doing it, it must be ok.” Her answer simply rang hollow and showed clear deafness for how bad this looks. It is even worse to know that for years she was one of the major sponsors of legislation to ban this type of behavior. I guess at the end of the day it is another story of if you can’t beat them, join them. Ann is a good person whose statement simply captures the reality of how bad even Minnesota politics is. No wonder the state earned a D- in its most recent ranking on ethics.
The 2016 Minnesota Election Themes
It is becoming clear what the 2016 elections themes will be in the battle for the Minnesota House and Senate. Of course it will be the Senate Office Building but so too look to see Polymet and Black Lives Matters as issues. So too will be whether to help workers on the Iron Range and Lake Mille Lacs as the governor had wanted. These are issues that divide not just the two major parties but also the Democrats.
Moreover, while the governor is perfectly correct that something needs to be done to address the racial disparities in Minnesota, it is not clear that the Democrats and he are building the political coalition in greater Minnesota to accomplish this. Black Lives Matters may be good copy and a salient issue that could help urban Democrats, but it is not an issue that will help them in the suburbs and greater Minnesota.
Why raise all this? So far the Republicans in Minnesota seem to be defining a better set of themes and campaign narratives than are the Democrats. While in a presidential election year DFLers normally do better look at 2016 as a year where it will still be difficult for Democrats to retake the House and the battle for the Senate will be challenging.
The Achievement Gap
Finally, take a look at this sobering article on the state of education and race in America since Brown v. The Board of Education. The gaps between Blacks and Whites show that race still matters and that perhaps we need to show as much anger about the education gap as we do about the shooting of African-Americans by police officers.
No, the solution is not vouchers or to get rid of public schools as conservatives demand. There is little evidence that these gimmicks along with charter schools have succeeded. Simply spending more money on schools is not the answer (although the US does spend less on education as a percentage of its GDP compared to other major countries) in the same way that cutting taxes is not always the answer. The question is how to spend money–existing and new–to improve education. The answer lies not just in spending on schools but also in support networks that make it possible to support families, parents, and communities.
Showing posts with label Polymet. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Polymet. Show all posts
Saturday, November 28, 2015
Sunday, February 23, 2014
Previewing the 2014 Minnesota Legislative Session: Issues and Contrasting Agendas
This week the Minnesota Legislature reconvenes. To predict the dynamics of the 2014 session one needs to understand how the governor, the House and the Senate, and the Democrats and Republicans all have different interests in what should happen in this short session. While in some cases their interests may converge, there are also powerful forces that may push them in very different directions, potentially creating interesting conflicts that set up the 2014 elections. Specifically, lookto see how party, region, and chamber and branch of government create contrasting interests in what happens in the 2014 session.
The Issues
What are the major issues for the 2014 session? Passing a bonding bill is the main reason for the session. Estimates are that a bill of about $800 million is what both the Democrats and Republicans seem to want, but beyond the amount, the exact projects remain in dispute.
Second, left over from 2013 are three issues–a hike in the minimum wage, anti-bullying legislation, and a fix to the civil commitment program for sexual offenders. All three are hugely controversial items that will divide the parties. Third, the legislature needs to decide what to do with the budget surplus–spend or save. Finally, other issues such as whether to repeal the business warehouse tax, finding a more permanent funding solution for the Vikings stadium, and business law reform (something Dayton has talked about) are possibilities.
What will we not see in 2014? Government ethics reform. Minnesota’s government ethics laws in terms of disclosure and conflict of interest are vastly out of date. The legislature made it worse last session in voting to change the gift ban law for themselves, making it yet again possible for them to be wined and dined by lobbyists. Representative Winkler is correctly proposing in HF 1986 to undue this exemption, but it will be a shocker if this legislation passes. But even if it does more reforms are needed. The state could use a revolving door bill to place limits on former legislators from coming back and lobbying the legislature at least for a year. About half the states have laws like this. More lobbyist disclosure, legislator conflict of interest of laws, ethics laws for law governments, and contribution limits to the parties and caucuses are all needed. But don’t expect to see any of these reforms proposed.
The Coming Elections
Overshadowing the session are the 2014 elections. The governor is up for re-election as is the entire House of Representatives. This is not necessarily a good year for Democrats. No this is not 2010 all over again where anger against Obama and health care reform mobilized Republicans, depressed Democrat turnout, and swung independents toward the GOP. This year Dayton’s approval ratings are riding high, as are Senator Franken, and perhaps there are some coattail affects here. Yet in a non-presidential election year Minnesota’s voter turnout drops to the low to mid 50s–a 20 or so plunge from presidential election year turnouts. The biggest loss comes in terms of voters who generally support Democrats–the young, women, and people of color. Democrats can do well this year in Minnesota, but they need to mobilize their base and keep the swing voters on their side.
This means, at least for the Democrats, that they want this to be a short legislative session where they can get their main task accomplished–passing a bonding bill–while giving the Republicans little opportunity to find anything to use against them in the election. Thus in general Democrats will not push too hard this session, much to the dismay of many of their supporters. Conversely, Republicans are looking for inroads, wedge issues of use to them that will rally their base and peal away independent voters from the Democrats.
Don’t look to see gay marriage be a 2014 general election issue. It is a loser for Republicans, except as an issue to use within the party to beat up fellow party members.
Contrasting Political Agendas
However, the DFL House, Senate, and Dayton have contrasting interests. The entire House is up for election and the DFL there do not want to tackle issues that will hurt them. The Senate is not up for election. At best, there are probably no more than a dozen or so seats that are swing in the House, and the DFL will need to hold them to keep their majority. Look for them to avoid medical marijuana and anti-bullying legislation. Both are too controversial and may be perceived to be issues that produce political backlash from conservatives. Moreover, the DFL has said that they want to move on minimum wage, but again don’t look to seem them push for a wage that really makes a difference. It would make sense to pass meaningful minimum wage laws and with a built-in index for future automatic increases. The DFL may have only this session to address the minimum wage issue and if it were smart it would take advantage of the opportunity.
No one wants to touch the sex offender civil commitment program. It is probably unconstitutional but any change in the law lends to potential partisan criticism that the other is soft on sex crimes. This is an issue that both parties would rather see go away–at least until 2015. Alternatively, the GOP would love the DFL to act, giving the former a great issue for the 2014 elections.
Additionally, the DFL needs to decide what to do with the budget surplus. The House would love to be Santa Claus and do a tax cut–such as repeal the business warehouse tax–or provide other cuts that will be politically popular. The DFL Senate does not see it that way, perhaps preferring to save it in a rainy day fund. So far Governor Dayton has not made it clear what his priorities are, and his interests may be closer to the House in terms of what to do.
Among other types of legislation that need to be addressed is fixing the fix. By that, the fix to the Vikings Stadium funding is still not financially secure it needs revisiting. The money to pay for the state’s share of the stadium is still not built on a secure revenue stream and unless another one is found, the public will be paying for the stadium out of general revenue. Looming over the session also will be MNSure. How it operates in the next few months and what might be done legislatively about it may be one of the make or break political issues in the coming session.
Finally, plans by Polymet mining pose a huge risk for the DFL, potentially pitting urban progressives and environmentalists against unions and Iron Rangers. While there are no immediate calls for legislative action on this issue there is still the potential that it could creep up in bills, forcing the Democrats to make difficult choices.
Conclusion
No legislative session is devoid of politics. The same will be true in 2014. How that politics plays out in next couple of months will tell us a lot about what might happen in the November elections. For now, look to see how the issues divide along the party, branch and chamber of government, and region.
The Issues
What are the major issues for the 2014 session? Passing a bonding bill is the main reason for the session. Estimates are that a bill of about $800 million is what both the Democrats and Republicans seem to want, but beyond the amount, the exact projects remain in dispute.
Second, left over from 2013 are three issues–a hike in the minimum wage, anti-bullying legislation, and a fix to the civil commitment program for sexual offenders. All three are hugely controversial items that will divide the parties. Third, the legislature needs to decide what to do with the budget surplus–spend or save. Finally, other issues such as whether to repeal the business warehouse tax, finding a more permanent funding solution for the Vikings stadium, and business law reform (something Dayton has talked about) are possibilities.
What will we not see in 2014? Government ethics reform. Minnesota’s government ethics laws in terms of disclosure and conflict of interest are vastly out of date. The legislature made it worse last session in voting to change the gift ban law for themselves, making it yet again possible for them to be wined and dined by lobbyists. Representative Winkler is correctly proposing in HF 1986 to undue this exemption, but it will be a shocker if this legislation passes. But even if it does more reforms are needed. The state could use a revolving door bill to place limits on former legislators from coming back and lobbying the legislature at least for a year. About half the states have laws like this. More lobbyist disclosure, legislator conflict of interest of laws, ethics laws for law governments, and contribution limits to the parties and caucuses are all needed. But don’t expect to see any of these reforms proposed.
The Coming Elections
Overshadowing the session are the 2014 elections. The governor is up for re-election as is the entire House of Representatives. This is not necessarily a good year for Democrats. No this is not 2010 all over again where anger against Obama and health care reform mobilized Republicans, depressed Democrat turnout, and swung independents toward the GOP. This year Dayton’s approval ratings are riding high, as are Senator Franken, and perhaps there are some coattail affects here. Yet in a non-presidential election year Minnesota’s voter turnout drops to the low to mid 50s–a 20 or so plunge from presidential election year turnouts. The biggest loss comes in terms of voters who generally support Democrats–the young, women, and people of color. Democrats can do well this year in Minnesota, but they need to mobilize their base and keep the swing voters on their side.
This means, at least for the Democrats, that they want this to be a short legislative session where they can get their main task accomplished–passing a bonding bill–while giving the Republicans little opportunity to find anything to use against them in the election. Thus in general Democrats will not push too hard this session, much to the dismay of many of their supporters. Conversely, Republicans are looking for inroads, wedge issues of use to them that will rally their base and peal away independent voters from the Democrats.
Don’t look to see gay marriage be a 2014 general election issue. It is a loser for Republicans, except as an issue to use within the party to beat up fellow party members.
Contrasting Political Agendas
However, the DFL House, Senate, and Dayton have contrasting interests. The entire House is up for election and the DFL there do not want to tackle issues that will hurt them. The Senate is not up for election. At best, there are probably no more than a dozen or so seats that are swing in the House, and the DFL will need to hold them to keep their majority. Look for them to avoid medical marijuana and anti-bullying legislation. Both are too controversial and may be perceived to be issues that produce political backlash from conservatives. Moreover, the DFL has said that they want to move on minimum wage, but again don’t look to seem them push for a wage that really makes a difference. It would make sense to pass meaningful minimum wage laws and with a built-in index for future automatic increases. The DFL may have only this session to address the minimum wage issue and if it were smart it would take advantage of the opportunity.
No one wants to touch the sex offender civil commitment program. It is probably unconstitutional but any change in the law lends to potential partisan criticism that the other is soft on sex crimes. This is an issue that both parties would rather see go away–at least until 2015. Alternatively, the GOP would love the DFL to act, giving the former a great issue for the 2014 elections.
Additionally, the DFL needs to decide what to do with the budget surplus. The House would love to be Santa Claus and do a tax cut–such as repeal the business warehouse tax–or provide other cuts that will be politically popular. The DFL Senate does not see it that way, perhaps preferring to save it in a rainy day fund. So far Governor Dayton has not made it clear what his priorities are, and his interests may be closer to the House in terms of what to do.
Among other types of legislation that need to be addressed is fixing the fix. By that, the fix to the Vikings Stadium funding is still not financially secure it needs revisiting. The money to pay for the state’s share of the stadium is still not built on a secure revenue stream and unless another one is found, the public will be paying for the stadium out of general revenue. Looming over the session also will be MNSure. How it operates in the next few months and what might be done legislatively about it may be one of the make or break political issues in the coming session.
Finally, plans by Polymet mining pose a huge risk for the DFL, potentially pitting urban progressives and environmentalists against unions and Iron Rangers. While there are no immediate calls for legislative action on this issue there is still the potential that it could creep up in bills, forcing the Democrats to make difficult choices.
Conclusion
No legislative session is devoid of politics. The same will be true in 2014. How that politics plays out in next couple of months will tell us a lot about what might happen in the November elections. For now, look to see how the issues divide along the party, branch and chamber of government, and region.
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