Where will the Double Haters Go?

 

            Now that Joe Biden is out and Kamala Harris is in as the likely Democratic nominee for president, the question is, “where will the double haters go?”

            For the last several months one of the most interesting facts about the 2024 US presidential election was that a majority of the American public did not Want to see a Biden Trump rematch. Among those who did not want to see the rematch, or a small but important group of voters often described as the double haters. These are individuals who equally disliked Donald Trump and Joe Biden as presidential candidates, depending on which poll one looked at, the double haters constituted between 15% to 20%  of the electorate.  According to the Washington Post, these double-haters are “ more likely to be younger, Hispanic or Black, and women living in larger cities or with no religious affiliation.  Among the reasons they hate both is that Trump and Biden were simply seen as too old.

            When the race was still between Biden and Trump these dual haters had several options. Option one was to hold their nose and vote for the candidate that they found least objectionable. Option two was to potentially vote for a third party candidate such as Robert Kennedy Jr. Option three would have been a decision not to vote whatsoever.

            All three of these were possible options for the double haters. For those who intended to vote and vote for a major party candidate, their choice between Trump and Biden might come down to how relatively important they viewed issues such as the economy, border security, the personalities of the two candidates, or the drama either of the candidates brought to their presidencies.

            Both Trump and Biden had calculated into their strategy what the double haters might do. They were pitching their messages to discourage these individuals from voting for the opposition, with the hope they would vote for them, or at the very least choose not to vote on Election Day.

            Biden is now out. This clearly changes the equation for the double haters. It is not clear that these voters have the same hatred for Harris, as they did for Biden. They still nonetheless hate Trump. How will they recalculate their vote?  

            Do they view Harris the same as Biden and therefore their calculation between Harris and Trump is the same.

            Is there no hatred for Harris, but still for Trump, and therefore they're more likely to vote for Harris?

            Will they still opt to vote for a third party candidate, or will they still opt to stay home on Election Day?

            Harris's entry into the race changes the race for the presidency for these voters. The profile of these voters are individuals who are more likely to vote for her than Trump.

            Trump’s campaign, which had already calculated how to address these double haters, now needs to change their campaign strategy. Candidates and campaigns have scripts and narratives and their strategies are based upon both. Harris replacing Biden changes how the Trump campaign must campaign. It gives Harris and the Democrats a new option and opportunity to reset the 2024 presidential campaign.  

    The election is down to 150,000 to 200, 000 swing voters in five or six swing states. There are certainly enough double-haters  in the critical swing states to alter the flow of the election and potentially give Harris a victory.