Trump, Trumpism, and the Future of American Politics

 

               By the end of this week  Donald Trump will have had the worst seven days of his presidency.

  The only week that will be worse is when Joe Biden is sworn in as president, he issues several executive orders overturning those of  Trump, and when lacking presidential  immunities, he faces possible federal and state prosecution for many of his actions as president and from before.

Personally, Trump will be repudiated numerous times legally and politically by this Friday, yet despite his defeats, it is not obvious that Trumpism is dead and that it has been exorcised from the Republican Party.

            Part of Donald Trump’s attraction to so many was his antiestablishmentism.  In 2016  he ran against the Republican Party and Washington and won.   This antiestablishmentism, along with  white identity resentment politics, US  hyper-nationalism, and  anti-immigration, are the core of Trumpism. Yet this Trumpism, while politically enduring to many, was his undoing from a public policy  and legal perspective.  He passed little legislation in Congress and suffered one of the worst records in court regarding his efforts to change administrative rules regarding the environment, immigration, and other areas of regulation.  Now as his presidency is closing, the establishment he railed against is abandoning him.

            Consider first the two major legislative defeats he suffered in the closing days of  2020.  One, after demanding that the pandemic stimulus bill increase relief checks from $600 to $2,000 and threatening to veto it, he signed it and got nothing.  Two, Congress for the first time with Trump overrode his veto of the defense bill.  Both were victories for process and institutionalism.

            Second,  as the Washington Post first reported, Donald Trump unsuccessfully  sought to convince Georgia election officials to commit voter fraud in order to flip the electoral votes in that state.  His failure is a victory for electoral integrity, the law, and claims about voter fraud that have left him with a 1-59 record since election day.  Again, a victory for the law, the competence of civil servants, and the establishment.

            Three, polls suggest that Democrats have a better than even chance of winning the two US  Senate seats in Georgia on January 5.  If that happens it will flip that chamber to the Democrats.  Were that to happen it will be because of  the repudiation of Trump in that state and a failed effort to sway the elections there.

            Four, on January 6, a joint-session of Congress will meet, presided over by Vice-President Pence, to count the electoral votes.  Pence has effectively abandoned Trump.  He already challenged a lawsuit that sought to give him the authority to reject electoral votes.  He will eventually declare Joe Biden the winner of the 2020 presidential election, despite the fact that many members of his party will challenge the electoral vote count and lose.  A victory for process and the law.

            Donald Trump the person will continue to diminish as a political figure.  After January  20, he will face possible New York State lawsuits for tax and bank fraud.  There will be pressure to change him with other violations of the law, both at the federal and state level.

            Trump was always his own worst enemy.   He thought he could do whatever he wanted and while enabled by many, he proved unable to make the profound  changes his supporters hoped and his distractors feared.  His losses were a vindication, for good or bad, of the strength of the American political system.  Many claim that his current  rants about voter fraud and efforts to threaten a state election official are bad for democracy.  They are, but America will survive.  He will no longer be president and the country will move on.

            Yet despite the repudiation of Trump as a person, Trumpism lives on.  His persona’s grip on the Republican Party remains strong.  Yet the Party is divided between those who wish to claim the mantle of Trumpism such as Ted Cruz as he thinks about a 2024 presidential run, and those such as Mitch McConnell and Mitt Romney who see a different direction for it.  The issue is about reform and moving on beyond Trump.

            In 2012 after Mitt Romney lost the presidency to Barack Obama the Republican Party did a study, concluding that it needed to evolve if it wished to have a future.  It  needed to attract women and people of color.  Trump’s takeover of the party forestalled that change.  The Republicans are now back to where they were in 2012.  The question now is whether the Party, like America, can move beyond not just Donald Trump but Trumpism.