T-Minus and Counting: The Final Days to the November 3, US Elections

  With any luck the 2020 US presidential elections will be over on November 3,.  At least the voting

will be done.  Whether the voting counting and post-election litigation will be done depends on the margins of victory for either candidate in a handful of swing states.  Already the most heavily litigated election in US history with nearly 400 lawsuits so far, a close election could trigger far more.

What is the state of the election today?  Biden will easily win the national popular vote.  He has had a stable six to eight point lead for six months.  Contrary to those who claim to the contrary, the national polls were accurate four years ago and there really were no hidden Trump voters.  The issue was not surprise Trump voters so much as Democrats staying home in critical swing states and areas across the country.  Suburban women, those under 30, and people of color stayed home on election day.

It again is coming down to a cluster of a few swing states that will decide the election.  Remember, it is not the national popular vote but the race to 270 electoral votes that decides the election.  Again, four years ago the polls in the swing states were accurate.

Back in January 2020 I did my initial calculation of where the presidential race was.  I assumed back then it was Biden-Harris as the Democratic ticket–no real surprise.  I estimated that they were nearly certain to win California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, (overall state) Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York,   Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, and Washington.  This is a total of 19 states plus the District of Columbia.  In the case of Maine, Democrats probably would overall win the state and three of its four electoral votes.  The other electoral vote, which is for the Second Congressional district, goes to the Republican.  Biden started with 222 electoral votes.

Donald Trump I predicted would win 24 states plus part of Maine.  These states are  Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, (Second Congressional District), Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.  Trump started with 205 electoral votes.  

Yet there were seven remaining states–Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania,  and Wisconsin–totaling 111 electoral  votes, which were too close to call and they were the swing states that will decide the presidency.

The race was always about these seven states.  More specifically, they were about what would happen in 11 counties in these swing states.  And more specifically, the fate of the election hinged upon 10% of the undecided voters in these 11 countries across seven states that would decide who gets to 270.  In sum, the four numbers that would decide the race were 10/11/7/270.

Back in January I then made some guesses, assigning Arizona (11), Florida (29), and North Carolina (15) to Trump.  This put Trump at 260.    I then assigned Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), and Pennsylvania (20) to Biden.  This put him at 268.  Wisconsin was the holdout with ten electoral votes and too close to call then.

Where are we now?  Some states have become more competitive, such as Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and maybe Texas.  Polls suggest close races there but a lot depends on turnout.  These are all states Trump should win and the fact that a state such as Georgia or Texas is possibly in play is not good news for the president.  There really are no states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 that are in serious play now.  I have long argued Minnesota was becoming a swing state but do not think so now.

Where I see the race coming down to are the three states that decided it four years ago–Michigan,

Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  There, a margin of 85,000 votes decided the election.  More specifically, had Clinton received 85,000 more votes across these three states she would be running for re-election now.  Notice I did not say had 85,000 votes switched.  There are few swing voters anymore.  Clinton lost in these three states because she did not campaign there and took Democratic voters for granted.  

Biden is campaigning in these states.  The critical counties in these states are showing dramatic surges of Democratic-leaning areas casting ballots.  Democrats are motivated to vote.  This is especially the case for college educated suburban women who are key to Biden’s victory much like they were key in the 2018 midterm elections.  There are also signs of young people under 30 and people of color motivated to vote.

Trump needs his base of white males without college degrees to vote in much higher numbers than four years ago.  That may happen but polls are suggesting that elderly voters who supported him four years ago are not as likely to vote for him this time because of the pandemic.

As I see it the election is coming down to the intersection of the turnout curve of white working class males without college degrees versus suburban college educated women in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.   This is what decides the electoral college victory. Right now the reputable and reliable polls have Biden up in these three states, portending a victory. 

Of course, these numbers have to be discounted by the probability of lawsuits and margin of victory.  If young people and people of color turn out then it is possible in these three states the margins are high enough to withstand possible legal challenges.  Additionally, if turnout does surge and states such as Georgia, Ohio, or Texas flip then it is even less likely lawsuits will matter.