Question:
The US Democratic Party presidential candidate Joe Biden has selected California Senator Kamala Harris as his vice-presidential candidate. Were you surprised?
Schultz: Actually no, this was not a surprise. If in January 2020 you had asked me what the Democratic Party ticket was going to be I would have told you it was going to be Biden and Harris. Despite some early poor debate performances and his bad showing in the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, Biden always represented the compromise candidate whom most Democrats could support. This is a race where Democrats are motivated to vote against Donald Trump and they needed a consensus candidate who could bring together support from various constituencies that hold together the party.
Senator Harris is a similar vice-presidential pick. She is not the liberal such as Stacey Abrams or Elizabeth Warren that the progressive swing of the party wanted. But she is a candidate that most can live with, or, when faced with the prospect of Trump winning again in 2020, they will support. At least that is the hope for the Democrats.
What does Harris bring to the ticket?
Schultz: Senator Harris is a good and obvious choice for many reasons. On a personal level, Joe Biden said that his deceased son and Harris had worked together and therefore there was a personal connection. That is important, at least to Biden who craves the interpersonal aspect of politics and trying to get along with others.
But more pragmatically, Harris may represent the future of the Democratic Party. One, she is only in 50s, compared to Biden who would be 78 years old when he takes office if he wins this November. Harris’s relative youth sets her up to perhaps run for president in 2024 or beyond. Two, she is only the third female to be a vice-presidential candidate for a major party in America, and she is also the first mixed race (African-American and Indian). Women and people of color are core constituencies with the Democratic Party and therefore she is a good choice for Biden to reach out to these groups. Also, the future of the US is one that will be more multi-racial and therefore she is the face of the next America.
Are there good political reasons for selecting Kamala Harris?
Schultz: Yes. One, is already has a proven track record as a successful politician, having served as a country prosecutor, California Attorney General, and now a US Senator. She has demonstrated her ability to campaign and receive votes. Two, she comes from a safe state. By that, California is a solidly Democratic Party state. Should she become vice-president and have to resign her senate seat, there should be no difficulty in the Democrats holding it. With other possible vice–presidential candidates such as Elizabeth Warren, it would have been less certain for the Democrats to hold the seat. With the partisan or political control of the US an issue in 2020, this is an issue.
Three, Harris is a good debater, a known quantity to mainstream Democrats, and should prove to be a good campaigner for Biden. Finally, as already noted, being female and a person of color she will help excite many voters to supporting Biden.
Develop this last point. How will she excite voters or be an asset?
Schultz: The Democratic Party in the US is really composed of three or four groups. There are the urban liberals, young voters less than 30, educated women, and suburban voters. Democrats need to mobilize all four of these groups to win. Obama did that well in 2008 and 2012, Hillary Clinton failed to do that in 2016. She lost not because there was a surge of Republican voters for Trump, but more because females, people of color, and young people did not vote.
More specifically, for years I have argued that the single most important voters in the US are educated suburban women–or what used to be called soccer moms. A quarter of a century ago they voted for Republicans but moved away from that party for a variety of reasons including reproductive rights, guns, education, and health care. These voters are more likely to vote for Democrats but not always. In 2016 many of these suburban women stayed home and Trump won. In 2018 these women voted and put Democrats back in control of the US House.
Harris is an appealing candidate to educated suburban female voters. She is professional, educated, successful, and while she is progressive, comes across as more centrist and moderate. Many women see themselves in Harris.
But do Vice-presidential candidates actually matter?
Schultz: There is conventional wisdom that vice-presidential candidates matter and can move states. Journalists and politicians swear by this belief. However, my research and those by other political scientists larger dispute this. Statistically it is hard to find support for this. At best, maybe a vice-presidential candidate might affect 1-2% of the vote.
Think about it–most people cannot name who the vice-president is. People vote for president, not the vice-president. Although there is some evidence that Sarah Palin in 2008 hurt John McCain with the general election or voter even though she was helpful to him in getting the Republican Party support for his candidacy.
Harris could be the exception to the rule. She might excite enough voters to make a difference. But perhaps a better a way to ask is whether Harris will make a difference in the race to win the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Remember, as we saw in 2016, winning the popular vote is not enough, one must win the electoral vote and get 270 of these votes to become the president.
The presidential race is really as I have argued about holding your base and then winning the crucial swing states that will decide the election. Thus the question is will Harris make a difference in the swing states?
Question: What are the states to look at?
Schultz: The presidential race is down to about seven states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states have a total of 111 electoral votes and they will decide who becomes president. The question is whether Harris makes a difference in these states.
Harris might possibly make states such as North Carolina and Georgia more competitive, but really the seven states noted above really are the core to the 2020 election.
Heals Up!
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