Monday, February 2, is the official start of the 2020 presidential elections. It is when the Iowa caucuses take place. Here are some thoughts.
What should we expect from this primary season?
The Democratic Primary season starts with the Iowa caucuses. Traditionally the value of Iowa is that it serves as a testing ground and an way to winnow down the number of potential or viable candidates moving forward.
Based on the most recent polls, There is a cluster of four to six candidates who are still viable: Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg. Bloomberg is not contesting Iowa. For the first five, to remain viable going forward one probably needs to finish in the top three. Specifically, for example, Klobuchar, who has made Iowa the centerpiece of her presidential campaign, must come in the top three to remain viable. Moreover, if she beats Buttigieg, or vice versa, the loser is probably also going to have a hard time going forward. Similarly, Warren and Sanders are fighting for the progressive wing of the party and the one who comes out on top will be the leader for that side.
Right now, polls suggest it is Biden and Sanders who are in the lead in Iowa. Sanders is also leading in New Hampshire. After that, Biden leads in Nevada and South Carolina. The point is that very rapidly I can see the race turning into a Sanders-Biden contest, with Bloomberg’s money making him a wild car going into Super Tuesday. All this suggests that the Democratic Party is still torn between progressive and moderate wings, much like in 2016, and the challenge is finding a way to unite the party. Which candidate can do that and how is an interesting question.
- What's on stake for the Democratic party?
Obviously beating Donald Trump is the big issue, but so is uniting the party, bringing in the next generation of Democratic voters, and taking back the Senate and making gains in the state legislative elections as one prepares for redistricting in 2021. All of these events define important political events and challenges for the Democratic party.
- What's the biggest challenge they face right now?
Finding a viable message or narrative to defeat Trump along with devising a campaign strategy to beat him in the critical few swing states that will decide the election.
- Which candidate do you think is best equipped to win the nomination?
Right now it looks like Biden is better equipped to win if one follows a convention strategy. But he may not inspire younger votes.
- Is there any chance to defeat President Trump?
It will be a close election.
The 2020 presidential race is effectively over in 44 states plus the District of Columbia. Who will be the next president is down to a handful of voters in six swing states.
Based on recent elections, voting patterns, and polling, a Democratic Party candidate for president is nearly certain to win California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, (overall state) Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, and Washington. This is a total of 19 states plus the District of Columbia. In the case of Maine, Democrats probably will overall win the state and three of its four electoral votes. The other electoral vote, which is for the Second Congressional district, goes to the Republican. Democrats start with 222 electoral votes.
A Republican Party candidate will win 30 states plus part of Maine. These states are Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, (Second Congressional District), Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Republicans start with 216 electoral votes.
Yet there are six remaining states–Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin–totaling 100 electoral votes, which are too close to call and they are the swing states that will decide the presidency. The task for the Democrats is finding a candidate who can not only hold their base states but win enough electoral votes in these swing states to win the election. Remember: The popular vote does not matter and national opinion polls do not matter.
The road to the White House starts with Iowa and ends with these six states.
I agree.
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