Saturday, September 16, 2023

Backfire: Keeping Trump off the Ballot and Impeaching Biden May Get you Something Worse

 


            Don’t wish for something, it might happen. When it comes to American politics in 2024, that might be the warning for Democrats seeking to keep Donald Trump off the ballot in Minnesota or Colorado or for Republicans trying to impeach Joe Biden.  For every political action there is an opposite reaction and for both parties what they might get is a backfire  that could do the opposite of what they want.

            Consider the state of contemporary politics.  It is a polarized winner-take-all-environment.  There are maybe five states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin that are in play.  Within those states, only a handful of swing voters in a handful of swing precincts will decide the race to 270 electoral votes  to win the presidency.  The US House and Senate are closely divided, with  perhaps no more than 20 suburban House seats and six Senate seats in play that will determine partisan control. Trump and Biden are tied in the national polls. 

Nearly forty states have partisan trifectas, giving  one party complete control of the legislative process.  These trifectas show the importance of winner-take-all politics  versus split government gridlock.

Now consider the current strategies.  Democrats in Colorado and Minnesota and perhaps in other states want to use the insurrection clause of  Section Three of the  Fourteenth Amendment to keep Trump off the ballot in those states.  Using a clause designed to remedy post-Civil War concerns regarding the  1866 election to keep former Confederates from serving in office and of which many legal historians question its applicability today, the strategy is to have election officials or state courts declare Trump and insurrectionist and therefore ineligible to appear on the ballot.

Keeping Trump off the Ballot in Minnesota

            Let’s consider the possibility of this in a quadfecta  state such as Minnesota where Democrats control both houses of the legislature, the governorship, the state supreme court, and even the secretary of state as the top election official.

The attraction or lure is great.  Exclude Trump from the ballot in Minnesota and one is guaranteed ten electoral votes without much work.  The resources can then be shifted to Wisconsin or another swing state.  Never mind no Republican has won statewide office since 2006 and no Republican presidential candidate since 1972.

But there are powerful downsides to this strategy.  One, if there is not even the semblance of a competitive presidential race in  Minnesota, it may be hard to motivate Democrats to come out to vote. Trump draws out Democrats to vote.  Without a competitive presidential race, down ballot races may be impacted.

Two,  if a 6-1 Democratic Party majority on the Minnesota Supreme Court throws Trump off the ballot it will only further add fuel to  the national claim of rigged elections. Minnesota will become the rallying cry to motivate Republican voters to come out in record numbers to support their guy.

Three, even if the Minnesota Supreme Court does not remove Trump from the ballot, the damage may already be done.  Even the hint of doing this raises the  stolen election fear both in the state and nationally, thereby propelling Republicans to the ballot.

Finally, now  consider one more issue—abortion.  The US Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade and abortion rights was a blessing for Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections.  It is still a salient issue. But in 2023 Democrats in Minnesota  went beyond codifying Roe, enacting legislation arguably going beyond what most of the state’s public opinion supports.  Republicans already plan to use the phrase “abortion on demand” to motivate their base in 2024, including a highly motivated pro-life anti-abortion constituency.

Rumor has it that the Democrats  want to go beyond codification of abortion rights and put it in a constitutional amendment and on the ballot in 2024.  In part the reasoning is to motivate their base.

Yet Democrats need to remember 2012 when a Republican legislature thought  a voter ID and marriage amendment would  juice up their base  and win them the elections. The result backfired and Democrats took over the legislature and single-party control of the state.

 

Impeaching Biden

            Biden enjoys tepid support among Democrats going into 2024.  He has low approval ratings among the general public and he does not garner enthusiasm among Democrats.  He is vulnerable in part because Democrats may not come out for him.

            The best thing Biden has going for him so far going into the 2024 election is Trump may be his opponent and that the House of Representatives is controlled by Republicans.  He gets to run against both next year.  But that still may not be enough to save him.

            Enter impeachment.

            The Republican House will likely impeach Biden later this year or in 2024.  The validity of the impeachment grounds do not matter.  Impeach Biden is meant to handicap him while running for re-election.  It is political tit-for-tat.  Trump was impeached, impeach Biden.  Trump has legal problems, divert attention from them and his trials by impeaching Biden and forcing a Senate trial on to television and into the social media.  It levels the legal playing field between Trump and Biden, and it serves as a way to motivate Republican donors and voters.

            Except perhaps not. There is no way a Democratic Party-controlled Senate will convict Biden.  There is even no guarantee it will hold a trial.  But much in the same way the Trump’s first impeachment motivated his voters  (and had it not been for Covid and his mishandling of it  he might have won him the 2020 election) after the 2018 midterm elections, a failed impeachment of Biden might simply be the thing Democrats need to rally their voters around Biden and bring them to the polls in 2024.

            The lesson is don’t wish for something because if you get it, it may backfire on you.

No comments:

Post a Comment