MN swing voters favored Gov. Tim Walz, helping him beat Scott Jensen

 

My analysis of swing voters and swing precincts  in Minnesota in a fine Pioneer Press article by Christopher Magan.

MN swing voters favored Gov. Tim Walz, helping him beat Scott Jensen

Precinct-level voting data shows ticket-splitters voted to re-elect the Democratic governor

By CHRISTOPHER MAGAN | cmagan@pioneerpress.com | Pioneer Press

PUBLISHED: November 23, 2022 at 1:58 p.m. | UPDATED: November 23, 2022 at 7:33 p.m.

Minnesota swing voters appear to have overwhelmingly favored Democratic Gov. Tim Walz over his Republican rival Scott Jensen in the Nov. 8 election.

A Pioneer Press analysis of voting data from more than 4,100 precincts across the state found Walz voters were roughly eight times more likely than Jensen voters to pick a member of a different political party for the state Legislature.

“It suggests that independents went to Walz,” said David Schultz, a political science professor at Hamline University, who noted the party in power almost always struggles to win a majority of independent voters. “That is so out of character from what it should be.”

There were 343 Minnesota voting precincts that Walz won where Republicans got the majority of the vote in either state House or Senate races. In about one-third of those, 110 precincts, voters backed Republican legislative candidates for both chambers while supporting Walz for re-election.

Jensen’s supporters voted almost entirely along party lines.

There were just 42 precincts that Jensen won where Democrats prevailed in House or Senate contests. Only five precincts won by Jensen also backed Democrats for both chambers of the Legislature.

Schultz said he suspects Jensen’s relatively weak candidacy coupled with former President Donald Trump’s endorsement drove away independent voters not just from him, but from other Republicans on the ballot.

In contrast, Democratic leaders say their message resonated with voters who may have found Republican positions too extreme. During the campaign, Democrats focused on abortion rights, well-funded public schools and economic issues for families.

The result? Gov. Walz cruised to re-election and the Democratic-Farmer Labor Party won narrow control of both chambers of the Legislature for the first time since 2014.

DFLers largely won in the Twin Cities metro and suburbs, but also had success on the Iron Range and in and around mid-size cities like Rochester, Mankato and St. Cloud. Republicans dominated rural areas and did better in northern Minnesota, but lost ground in the suburbs.

GOP to regroup

Amy Koch, a Republican and the Minnesota Senate’s first female majority leader, agrees that Jensen was a weak candidate, who made numerous missteps on the campaign trail. Now a political adviser, Koch points to comments Jensen and his running mate Matt Birk, a former Vikings star, made about abortion, taxes and other issues.

“We continue to chose candidates that don’t have appeal statewide,” Koch said. “Their message was bad in so many ways. There was nothing positive.”

Koch said that if Jensen hadn’t lost by nearly eight percentage points, other Republicans would have done better and the party might have held the Senate and won close races for Attorney General and Auditor. No Minnesota Republican has won statewide since former Gov. Tim Pawlenty in 2006.

“The top of the ticket was too heavy for the ticket-splitters,” Koch said. “Everything we know about elections was playing into Republicans hands and voters still said: ‘No, not you guys.'”

To be competitive statewide and to win back a legislative majority, Koch says the GOP needs to appeal to Minnesotans’ values, rather than recycle more extreme campaign rhetoric that works in traditionally red states.

“That’s not where people are in Minnesota,” she said. “We are a fiscally conservative, common sense electorate with a libertarian base.”

Republicans also need to do much better with suburban women, who appear to have stuck with Democrats this cycle despite Republican appeals on issues like crime and inflation. A good start, Koch says, is to have more women as candidates and in leadership.

“We’ve gone backwards,” Koch said, noting that women in the Republican Senate caucus and leadership have dwindled since she left office a decade ago. “I don’t know why we think suburban women would support us.”

On a more positive note, Koch praised House Republicans’ choice of Rep. Lisa Demuth, R-Cold Spring, as minority leader calling it a step in the right direction.

Few districts in play

While Democrats won a majority in the both chambers of the Legislature, it is a narrow one. When lawmakers return to St. Paul in January, DFLers will have a one seat majority in the Senate and about a half-dozen in the House — pending the outcome of recounts in close races.

Some of the DFL’s victories were so close, it appears that a few thousand votes here and there won them control of both chambers.

Schultz says that tracks with past election results when fewer than two dozen legislative races were competitive. A Pioneer Press examination of a decade of state elections found roughly 10 percent of the 201 state House and Senate seats were decided by 5 percentage points or fewer any given year.

Right after the election, DFL leaders Melissa Hortman, the House Speaker, and Kari Dziedzic, the incoming Senate Majority Leader, said they would chart a moderate course prioritizing policies with wide support. At the top of their list, codifying abortion rights, legalizing recreational cannabis, paid family leave and increasing funding to schools.

Schultz and Koch warn that with a slim majority Democrats would be wise to avoid mistakes Republicans made and not hew too close to their base.

“In general, the argument is, we are so polarized it really comes down to a few swing voters in a few swing districts that decide an election,” Schultz noted.

“They have the trifecta,” Koch added, “What (voters) giveth, they can take away.”