Note: This is a long-overdue blog on Minnesota politics. I hope to return to regular blogging after this
long break I took.
If the recent polls are accurate the Minnesota Democratic Party is in danger of losing several statewide constitutional offices, in addition to control of the statehouse.
A recently conducted KSTP Survey USA poll indicates that while Governor Walz maintains a ten point lead over Scott Jensen (with 7% undecided and a margin of error of 4.4%), the other three offices–Attorney General, Secretary of State, and State Auditor are all close, within the 4.4% margin of error (credibility interval) with 13% 18%, and 18% undecided respectively. Can we trust these polls and what do the numbers mean?
Geek Alert: A Concern About the Survey Methodology
As I reviewed the recent poll I had a lot of questions. Remember it was a similar KSTP poll several weeks ago that had Walz leading over Jensen by 18%, while a poll a few weeks later by MPR, Kare 11, and the Star Tribune had the lead at 10%. No one seriously thought Walz had an eighteen-point lead then. He is less popular today than four years ago when he ran in a good Democratic Party year. The September KSTP poll was simply bad, at least for the governor’s race.
This new poll released October 5-6, surveys 825 individuals. The survey has 59% from the Metro region (which is about correct). It also has more registered Republicans than Democrats (37% to 36%), which may be a little biased to Republicans based on2020 exit polls. It was a mixed mode-survey that involved telephone (landline) or a cellular device but it is not clear what the percentage of the two was, so it is difficult to assess bias here. Finally the survey uses a credibility interval instead of margins of error. For many statistical reasons, I find such intervals inferior to margins of error. My point here? It is not clear how good the methods in this survey are and whether it is biased in favor of Democrats or Republicans. But for the sake of argument, assume it is a good survey.
Interpreting the Results
Months ago nationally and in Minnesota Democrats were in trouble. Crime and the economy were the major issues. Then the Supreme Court issued the Dobbs opinion overturning Roe v. Wade and abortion rights. This temporarily put Republicans on the defensive. Abortion, falling gas prices, and a slight bump in Biden’s approval ratings seemed to help Democrats. Yet this new poll, as well as national ones, point to a resurgence of crime and the economy as major issues, with Republicans favored as better able to handle them.
Yes, abortion remains an issue, especially for college-educated suburban women, and if they show up to vote on this issue the DFL will do well. Yet this issue has to be weighted, even among these women, compared to crime and inflation in terms of what will motivate them. These issues also need to be looked at also in terms of how other groups are motivated to vote. The bottom line is that abortion is not the clear-cut winning issue for Democrats as they thought. Moreover, while at least 60% of Minnesotans seem to support abortion rights, the DFL and the Democrats have framed the issue poorly. They are talking abortion and not reproductive rights. The latter would be a better strategy to reach a larger group of people, especially more moderate Democrats and independents.
Dog Whistles
Democrats and Republicans both have their dog whistles and coded messages this year. For the GOP crime again is about race and they continue to run against Democrats who supported the badly phrased “defund the police” message. In addition,w hile some see Jens’e reference to “furries” and school children using litter boxes as missteps, it was a terrific dog whistle to mobilze his base on social issues while he walks away from abortion.
For the Democrats, abortion is the dog whistle is abortion. It appeals to some constituencies, especially women and their core base.
Assessing the Campaigns
Second, while Walz has a lead he has run a horrible campaign. As a matter of fact, none of the constitutional officers are running good campaigns, with Jensen making one misstep after another. Walz has sat on his lead and his money advantage and has chosen not to debate. This is a critical mistake. It looks either like he is afraid to debate or worse, in light of the fraud scandal involving Feeding our Future, like he is hiding. His fight with a state judge over whether the latter ordered the Minnesota Department of Education to continue funding the non-profit was a mistake. Overall, with a ten-point lead with a 4.4% margin of error, his lead could be as low as 6%. With seven percent undecided, and generally with those undecideds breaking 60/40 against the incumbent, the governor’s race is potentially down to just a few single digits.
Conclusion
I have written three editions of Presidential Swing States where I feature Minnesota. While the state has noted gone GOP in a presidential race since 1972 with Nixon, or statewide for a Republican since 2006, there are many demographic and voting patterns that favor the Republicans, including this year. The KSTP poll while potentially flawed may suggest the state is more competitive than many think.
lmao
ReplyDelete