Biden versus Trump: Why Presidential Debates Still Matter

 For 60 years US presidential debates have been important political events in American elections.  The

famous 1960 Nixon-Kennedy debate ushered in the television age of US politics.  While many thought Nixon won the debate on content, Kennedy’s appearance played well on television and some claim it was decisive in his victory.  Over time, the debates are heavily watched by the American public, and they have produced memorable lines or scenes that probably affected the election. More often than not it is the one-line, the gotcha statement, or even imagery that define the debate and perhaps affect the outcome of the election.

              In 1976 in the debate between Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter, the former declaring Poland to be a free country was damaging to his candidacy making it look as if he were naive or not ready to be president.

            In 1980 Ronald Reagan asking the American public if it was better off now than four years ago helped close the deal against Jimmy Carter by reminding people about the dismal   economic state of the economy.

            In 1992 George H.W. Bush’s inability to describe how the problems in the economy personally affected him and then looking at his watch in the middle of the debate painted the picture of someone out of touch with the American public and the average person.

            In 2000 Al Gore’s repeated sighs in his debate with George Bush appeared to give the later advantage, or at least sympathy, in the debate.

            And in 2016 no one can forget the imagery of Donald Trump hovering over Hillary Clinton like a stalker.

            It is impossible to prove that any one of the moments changed the trajectory of the presidential election, but they stand out as images that viewers took away and considered as they voted.  Some many claim US presidential debates are out of date, but data on viewership questions that. Nonetheless, these debates are still heavily watched, with the September 26, 2016 Clinton-Trump the most heavily watched in history.  Presidential debates are media events, great for television news ratings, but still critical for candidates.  The same will be true for the three Joe Biden-Donald Trump debates.  Their first debate may be even more watched than the Clinton-Trump one, and potentially decisive for the race.

            The stakes for the first debate are high.  While polls suggest Biden has a strong lead in the popular vote, the electoral college numbers in the swing states are much closer despite claims by some that Biden has a nearly 80% chance of winning the presidency based on current polling. The debate is taking place during a pandemic, with a weakened economy, days after Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death and the president’s controversial rushed nomination to replace her by election day, contrary to what public opinion says.

            The debate is also taking place when early voting across many states is taking place, thereby  suggesting that some voters have already decided and cast votes and perhaps the debate does not matter.  Or perhaps the debate will be the final decisive bit of information that forms a decision for voters.  Or perhaps given how polarized the American public is, the debate will not change anyone’s mind because all minds are made up and the only issue is whether someone will vote.

            What will Trump and Biden do in the debate?

            Trump will try to put Biden’s age and character on trial much like he did with Clinton in 2016.  Trump will  try to move the debate away from the pandemic where polls suggest he is not  seen as doing a good job.  Trump will talk to  his base about  the Supreme Court replacement.  He will tie Biden to Black Lives Matters and to violence and rioting and defund the police. He will do his best to motivate even more his base which is already more excited to vote for him than Democrats are to vote for Biden.  He will also hope that he can convince college-educated women  not to vote for Biden.  Trump is not looking to win over these women—he just wants them not to vote  for Biden, much like what happened in 2016 with Clinton.

            Biden needs first to prove he is up for the job.  He did this in part in his presidential nomination acceptance speech but he needs to do it again.  Biden needs to interject some excitement into his boring and lackluster campaign. He needs to excite his base which is less enthusiastic  about him than it is anti-trump.  He also needs to move swing voters to his side.

            Biden will attack Trump’s handling of the pandemic.  He will attack Trump on the economy, health care, and packing the Supreme Court in ways that threat women’s reproductive rights.    He needs to make the case against Trump, prove that he is fit for the job, and generate the excitement among a handful of swing voters in a few swing states  to put him over the electoral college top.

            Even if America is polarized and there are few minds to sway, this debate is critical and  one both candidates need  to think about are defining images or lines that could determine the election.