The Electoral College Map Right Now Says Trump Wins in 2020

The 2020 presidential race is effectively over in 44 states plus the District of Columbia.  Who will be the next president is down to a handful of voters in six swing states.

            As Americans have now learned twice since 2000 the presidential popular matters little.  It is the electoral vote and the number of electoral votes it takes to win the presidency is 270.   Because of laws in 48 of the 50 states (Maine and Nebraska the exceptions), whichever presidential candidate wins a plurality of its popular vote wins all of its electoral votes.  Across the country because some states are more Republican or Democratic  leaning, they are safely in the camp of one party or another regardless of  the candidate.

            Based on recent elections, voting patterns, and polling, a Democratic Party candidate for president is nearly certain to win California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, (overall state) Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York,   Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, and Washington.  This is a total of 19 states plus the District of Columbia.  In the case of Maine, Democrats probably will overall win the state and three of its four electoral votes.  The other electoral vote, which is for the Second Congressional district, goes to the Republican.  Democrats start with 222 electoral votes.

            A Republican Party candidate will win 30 states plus part of Maine.  These states are  Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, (Second Congressional District), Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.  Republicans start with 216 electoral votes.  

            The likely voting patterns of 44 states calls into question how important the stand on issues is compared to partisanship.  In these states it does not matter if a Democrat is advocating for Medicare of all or something less, issue stance will have marginal impact on the election.

Yet there are six remaining states–Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania,  and Wisconsin–totaling 100 electoral  votes, which are too close to call and they are the swing states that will decide the presidency.

            These states, exception Minnesota, have swung back and forth between Republican and Democratic Party presidential candidates over the last four elections.  Head-to-head surveys of Trump versus Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg, and Warren find these states to be competitive.  However, even among these six, we can make some guesses about what they might do.  Minnesota is a state Trump almost won in 2016 and is targeting it in 2020.   Yet Trump is losing by double-digit numbers to any likely Democratic candidate.   In Michigan, Biden, Warren, and Sanders are leading Trump, but only Biden appears to have a statistically significant lead.  Move these 26 electoral votes to a Democrat and now it is 248. 

            On the Republican side, while recent polls indicate that Florida and North Carolina give Biden a slight lead in both (Warren and Sanders are effectively tied with Trump), these states are hard for Democrats to win.  They have large white working class populations who are motivated Trump supporters.  Move the 44 electoral votes over to Trump, and he now has 260.

            This leaves Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes and  Wisconsin’s 10 which will determine the 2020 election.  As of now, the only Democratic candidate who has a statistically significant lead over Donald Trump in Pennsylvania is Scranton’s own Joe Biden.  Assume he is the nominee; Democrats win the state  but still are short two electoral votes.

            This leaves it up to Wisconsin.  Biden is  the only Democrat with a lead over  Trump in the Badger state, but it is effectively a statistical tie.  Given the high percentage of white working class voters in Wisconsin, their likely motivation especially post-impeachment, and  devotion of some Democratic resources to winning or holding other Midwest states such as Minnesota or Michigan, move the ten electoral votes to Trump.  With that Trump wins an electoral college re-election with a bare minimum 270-268 victory.
         Now, assume Democrats hold Maine -2, this then makes the electoral vote 269-269, no majority. This then means according to the Constitution that the House elected in 2020 will pick the net president, with each state getting one vote. Right now with the current House Republicans hold a 26-24 edge, with Michigan and Pennsylvania tied. Republicans control a majority of the states despite the fact that Democrats have majority control. Assume Republicans continue to hold a majority of states in the new Congress and Democrats have majority control, Trump wins in the House. The battle for partisan control of state congressional delegations is also important.

            A lot can change between now and November 2020.  How impeachment and the economy play out are two  issues. As we also saw in 2016, campaign strategy  matters, and Hillary Clinton lost in part because she failed to develop an effective electoral vote plan.  Similarly, this preliminary study shows that perhaps only in a few states and among a handful of voters does the actual candidate  stance on issues matter.  But what might matter is whom the candidate is and in what state and based on polling nearly a year out the Democrats best chance of winning the presidency might be with Joe Biden because he appears best positioned to win several swing states, including a decisive Pennsylvania and  Wisconsin.