For anyone wanting a clear ending and definitive Hollywood ending and answer in the Mueller investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 US elections and the role Trump and his campaign had in colluding with them, they will be disappointed. The final report, based on the US Attorney General’s four-page summary, offers something for everyone, assuring that for now that the issues raised in it will live on into the 2020 US presidential election.
When Robert Mueller was brought on as special investigator, he was given a narrow mandate to determine whether Russians sought to interfere with the 2016 US elections. On that matter Mueller was definitive–yes. That conclusion alone is significant because it will have a potentially major impact on US-Russian Federation relations, including putting pressure on Trump to take a harder line toward Russia and Putin. With members of Congress–both Democrats and Republicans–wary of Trump’s soft approach toward Russia, this part of the report may well unite them in legislation that will go against the president.
If one were to end the report about Russian interference that would cover the core of the Mueller investigation and what it was mandated to investigate. But the report also looked at whether Trump or his campaign colluded or aided and abetted this interference. Again Mueller reaches a definite answer–no. It is possible that Trump and his associates did several things to help themselves financially, but as a matter of law they not commit acts that broke the law.
The third issue is whether Trump obstructed justice and the Muller investigation. Here the report finds evidence on both sides, declaring that the investigation neither proves nor exonerates him. The reason, presumably, hinges on the nuances of American law which requires proof both that someone engaged in certain acts and they did so with the appropriate mental state of mind or intent. Here, one can speculate that Mueller found that Trump had done certain acts but could not determine whether his act rose to the level to prove intent of obstruction. Mueller threw this to the Justice Department and regular prosecutors to make that call and they said no.
This is the point where the politics will kick in. Democrats will demand the full report and want to talk to Mueller and Justice Department officers to determine if they made the right call. This review of conclusions, while entirely legitimate, is wrapped into the middle of partisan politics and a 2020 election that has already reached conclusions on Trump’s behavior, regardless of what the report said. Mueller, in leaving open the obstruction question, and in the Attorney General not releasing the final report yet, guarantee that the investigation and final conclusions will not go away in terms of issues.
But whether the Democrats should continue to dwell on it versus move on to other matters is also a good question. The Democratic Party base will not let this matter go and they were counting on a clear answer of Trump guilt or culpability to help them in 2020. They did not get that. Democrats now need to move on to substantive issues to unite them and not simply run against Trump. Conversely, for Republicans and Trump, the report also guarantees the problems will persist. It only addressed a narrow set of issues, leaving open other questions about Trump’s business dealings and other matters which are still the objects on other congressional and criminal prosecutions.
Overall, the Mueller report itself, while definitive in what it was supposed to investigate, will hardly be politically definitive and it leaves open many issues unresolved.
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