Saturday, December 22, 2018

Unhinged: The Predictable and Overdue Collapse of the Trump Presidency

Aren’t we where many of us always thought it would be when it came to the Trump presidency?
Not quite half way through his presidency it is at a point where it is unhinged, demonstrating clear incompetence, unethical, if not illegal with Trump himself, trailing all the way down through his administration and all that he touches.  The government is partially shutdown, the stock market is tanking, law suits are mounting and grinding Trump to a halt, and Republicans in Congress are at war with him.  All entirely predictable, the only question is why it took so long.
For all those who wrung their hands with worry after the 2016 elections your greatest fears were realized and not.  On the one hand the fear was that Trump would pursue an anti-Obama agenda, seeking to reverse all that he did and more.  Trump is doing that, but also to those who feared there would be no checks on him, the fears were overblown.  Contrary to what many thought, it was not only Trump’s basic incompetence and perhaps crookedness that is bringing him down, but the irony of it all is that the system is working.  Courts, even those increasingly packed with Trump appointees, are coming to bear as they limit many of his government decisions.  The Mueller investigation, along with parallel ones by the New York Attorney General and New York federal prosecutor are closing in on the president and his inner circle of business and political associates.  Political appointees are fleeing as they face corruption charges.  The political process has motivated voters to elect Democrats.  The worst of Trump has been checked, and it will become more exacting come January as Congress changes power.
But what has happened since election day is that the Trump presidency has become fully unhinged.    What held this presidency together was a soaring economy but the tariffs are driving the economy down.  The tax  cuts gave an adrenaline rush that was short term and fizzled out, and the mounting debt and overall bad stewardship of the economy are pushing the US into a likely slowdown in2020.  Trump’s twitter presidency whose agenda is driven by what he sees on “Fox and Friends” has reduced his support to the base of his base, alienating him from all but a few extreme conservatives and angry  white guys who seem to resonate to fears of immigrants and the need for a wall.
Trump’s America First or Make America Great Again is simply a self-defeating  pitiful parody of itself.    The tariff wars show no sign of helping the US economy.  Gutting Obamacare lays bare the emptiness of Trump’s and GOP promises to fix health care, especially for those who voted for them. Whatever the wisdom of initially sending troops into Afghanistan and Syria, pulling them out now does little to make America more safe.  The move empowers Iran and terrorists, destabilizing the Middle East even more than now.   Trump’s foreign policy team is in shambles, and in the last few days Mattis resigns in protest, Wall street collapses, the government shuts down.
Yet Trump’s base of his base sticks with him, and will throughout the shutdown and presidency.  Trump is in a no lose position when it comes to the wall, the shutdown, and his base.  If he gets the wall he claims a win.  If he does not get the wall he gets to blame it on the Democrats and use the issue for another day.  The longer the shutdown, the stronger his argument is with his base.  It is entirely possible the Democrats get outplayed on this issue–no deal with this Congress and Trump blames it on the Senate Democrats.  No deal in January blame it on the House Democrats.  Never mind the issue does not work with the majority of voters, Trump’s end game is to look good on Fox and Friends, not govern responsibility. 

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