Obama's final
State of the Union speech was about his legacy.
While Obama has accomplished a lot–far more than often given credit and
his speech detailed what he did–one of his great failings is his inability to
restructure the Democratic party and build a new majority coalition to support
his policies. Instead, he leaves the
Democratic Party far weaker now than when he was first elected, and his legacy
more fragile and timid than it should be.
Many saw Obama’s 2008 victory as
potentially significant. His presidency portended
the possibilities of a critical political realignment. He represented generational change as the
first Gen X president. It was the
passing of the political torch from the Boomer Presidents Bill Clinton and
George Bush when he defeated the Silent or Greatest generation candidate John
McCain. He was the first non-white
president, supposedly the first post-racial one, and his candidacy seemed to
bring young people and non-traditional voters into the Democratic Party. His election produced enormous Democratic
congressional majorities, and all signs were that he was capable of being a
transformative president who would politically restructure the American
political landscape.
But then somewhere along the line
the Obama realignment collapsed, dead by 2010.
Yes the Affordable Care Act passed, as did Dodd-Frank, the stimulus
bill, and a host of other important measures.
Yet all of them suffered from the same fate–their sense of
timidity. Whenever Obama had a chance to
look history in the eye he looked away from making the type of reforms that
would do two things. One, that would
truly restructure American politics.
Two, reform that would link his reforms to building a new political
coalition to support them and be the basis upon which to build a new and future
Democratic Party.
The Affordable Care Act is insuring
millions of new people but it is a warmed over Republican idea largely
imitating Mitt Romney’s Massachusetts model.
It makes few changes in the basically free market model for health care
delivery and it does little to address major issues such as cost. Dodd-Frank was a watered down version of
significant Wall Street reform that has been weakened even more by regulatory
agencies. Neither of these laws makes
transformative changes in the health care insurance or financial regulatory
markets, and polls suggest they are largely misunderstood or disliked. In terms of foreign policy and the
environment, Obama has made some progress, but it not clear the Middle East or
the world is safer now than eight years ago or that he has made the progress toward
the green economy he promised. And
should a Republican win the White House and retain Congress, many of Obama’s
accomplishments may be undone.
Obama leaves the Democratic party
far weaker today than when he was elected.
The statistics are chilling. In
2009 there were 257 Democratic House and 58 Senate members, today there are 188
and 44. In 2009 there were 4,082
Democratic state legislators, today there are 3,163. In 2009 55% of state legislators were
Democrats, today it is only 43%. In 2009
Democrats controlled 27 legislatures and 28 governorships, today it is 11 and
18. No matter what the statistics, the Democratic party is weaker today than in
was in 2009.
The collapse of the Democratic
party under Obama is even more glaring given that demographic trends potentially
suggest a brighter future for the party.
Yet there are signs that Millennials, the most liberal and largest
generation in American history, once excited by Obama in 2008, have disengaged. In a famous 2010 New Yorker cartoon a
character exclaims that “Obama has the potential to get a whole new generation
disillusioned.” Granted part of Obama’s
problem was Republican intransigence, but he even had problems getting his own
party members to follow him.
The weakened Democratic Party under
Obama explains the 2016 presidential campaign.
The choice for the nomination is Hillary Clinton–a candidate from the
party’s old establishment–or Bernie Sanders–essentially an outsider to the
party. Obama has left the Democratic Party without a varsity team of players,
and the JV and freshman teams are also thin.
This will also make it difficult for Democrats to recruit strong
candidates to retake Congress. The
weakened Democratic Party at the state level puts reapportionment and election
laws in the hands of Republicans who are using both to further entrench
themselves.
What should Obama have done? In his
first year in office when he had Democratic majorities he should have enacted
policies that made major structural reforms that would have benefitted and
empowered his voters. He alienated many
of his supports by following Bush’s policy of bailing out the banks but he did
little for homeowners. He should have raised and embraced inflation-indexed minimum wage laws,
expanded earned income tax credits for working families, and taken bolder moves
to address structural income and wealth inequalities. He also could have pushed to support the
Employee Free Choice Act which would have updated the New Deal era National
Labor Relations Act. This law would have
reinvigorated labor unions. Obama also
should have pushed for federal laws on voting, such as outlawing voter
identification in national elections, allowing for same day registration, and
permitting ex-felons to vote.
Instead of using his political
capital, public support, congressional majorities, and a demand for change to
adopt real transformational policies, his spent it all on timid reforms that
while good, really failed to build the future coalitions and politics he needed
to support his legacy for the future.
Instead, his biggest accomplishment may be in how he help sustain the
forces to undermine his own legacy.
Good site.
ReplyDeleteDavid - you missed election of Scott Brown for Ted Kennedy seat, giving Repubs filibuster, teeth for their wall-to-wall refusal to cooperate on ANYTHING. And remember, losing 200k jobs/ month day Obama elected, economy needed fixing first, but stimulus bill a big achievement ($87 billion in green energy and related - big accomplishment). And you do not credit the ascension of FOX NEWS as baldly partisan media outlet, poisoning bipartisan solutions. RE Affordable Care Act, passes with 60 votes. NO way a more progressive bill had a chance. Today one might. Also, as Obama said then, given economic calamity, he couldn't put 750k health insureane workers out of business with single payer. In general, you are Mindya morning QBing, igniring hre facts of politics on the ground. PS, And in green enrgy, tremendous moves these past 2 years, incluiding extending solar/wind tax credit for 4 more years, and of course Obama was THE catalyst for global agreement in Parais. Coal is over, oil reeling, green energy booming.
ReplyDelete