Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Tim Walz, JD Vance, and the Myth of the Midwest

 What is the Midwest of the United States? 

When presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala

Harris selected JD Vance of Ohio and Tim Walz of Minnesota as their vice president candidates they did so in part because the Midwest, specifically Wisconsin and Michigan, is a strategic battleground for the presidency. The belief was that a Midwesterner from one state would appeal to voters across all the Midwest.  Arguably, Midwest values and appeals will be on display October 1, during the vice-presidential debate which, oddly, will be held in New York City and not Detroit or Milwaukee.

Somewhere along the way someone needs to explain to the east coast that there is not one Midwest. Instead, it is twelve separate states, and placing a debate in NYC is perhaps not the smartest way to demonstrate empathy for the Midwest voter.

There is a classic New Yorker Magazine cover depicting everything west of the Hudson River as flyover territory. We in the Midwest are one land of corn and soybeans, or at one point, cars, steel, iron, and manufacturing. The myth of the Midwest in part, is crafted by American folklore. Maybe it is Willa Cather’s O’Pioneers, Sinclair Lewis’ Babbitt, Philipp Meyer’s American Rust, or even Mark Twain’s Tom Sawyer or Sherwood Anderson’s Winesburg, Ohio. These books evoke a literary Midwest ethos that for many geographically merges my part of the world together. Some might even place JD Vance’s Hillbilly Elegy within this literary genus. Yet a more than cursory review reveals broad diversity across among these states and people these books depict. George Babbitt is not the same person as Tom Sawyer.

The US Census Bureau defines the Midwest as that geographic area west of the Appalachians, east of the Rockies, and bordered by the Ohio, Mississippi, and Missouri Rivers. It is twelve separate states broken into two regions. But even this definition is not fixed. Pennsylvania, by Census Bureau standards, is not the Midwest. Yet in appointing Walz or Vance, both Harris and Trump seem to have forgotten that. Parts of Pennsylvania west of the Appalachians seem Midwest to some. But certainly, the eastern part of Pennsylvania and Philadelphia are on the East Coast. Many in Minnesota view Michigan as back east because it is in a different time zone, and few in South or North Dakota consider Appalachia Midwest.

The Midwest is more than geography. It is politics and political values, and each state is different. Minnesota is as liberal as Ohio has become conservative. Some may see no difference between Minnesota and Wisconsin. For years I taught a class comparing Minnesota and Wisconsin politics and drew contrasts. Since the 1970s the two states have moved politically and economically in different directions and have adopted different perspectives on a variety of issues ranging anywhere from abortion, welfare reform, social welfare policy, and education. We are different not just because we cheer for the Vikings or the Packers.

Each state in the Midwest is a blend of immigration patterns colliding with its geography and economy to produce a unique political culture. But even within each state, there is diversity. Rural Minnesota is to the Twin Cities of Minneapolis and St Paul as Detroit is to the Upper Peninsula. Or Madison, Wisconsin is to the northern part of that state. Franklin County Ohio votes far differently than Hamilton County Ohio. In 2022 Tim Walz won only twelve of Minnesota's 87 counties when he was reelected as governor. The counties he won were urban, the counties he lost were mostly rural. To think that Walz would appeal to other Midwesterners is naive. He does not even appeal to all Minnesotans—only 52% voted for him.

 

There is no one undivided Midwest. It is a myth. Each state has its own politics, and there is a need to appreciate that politically and geographically, and not campaign in a cookie cutter fashion. As the 2024 Presidential election reaches fever pitch, and Trump and Harris concentrate on a few swing states in the Midwest. They need to remember that there is not one single Midwest and there is not one atypical Midwest voter.

As Scranton goes, so goes the American presidential election yet again

  

In 2024 Lackawanna County will again be the decisive bellwether county that determines whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will be president.

The media and the presidential campaigns are focused this year on the six or seven swing states that will decide the presidential election. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris each have their respective safe states that will vote for them, but neither of them has wrapped up enough electoral votes to win the election.

 In the past Maine, Missouri, and Ohio have been the critical swing or bellwether states that decided presidential elections. Within those states powerful swing counties stood out. Whichever candidate won a county in that state would go on to win that state in the presidential election.

For years, Hamilton County, Ohio was the bellwether. Win Hamilton County, where Cincinnati is located, meant that one would win Ohio. Were one to win Ohio, one would win the presidency. But demographics and politics have changed. Lackawanna County has replaced Hamilton County as the most important battleground in the country.

Historically, Lackawanna County voted for Democrats for president. It was working class, union, and manufacturing. As late as 2012 Barack Obama won the county over Mitt Romney, 63%, to 36%. But then the economy changed. The factories closed down. Union jobs exited and mining ended. The political base of the Democratic Party eroded, and workers did not see them helping enough.

The Democratic party moved to the left on many social issues alienating those unemployed workers who used to vote for them. Today, Lackawanna County sits to the political right of where the Democrats are, and to the political left of where the Republicans are. It is a true swing county that is a bellwether of Pennsylvania and national politics.

Eight years ago, in August of 2016 I argued that Lackawanna County was key to that presidential election. If Trump were to win the county or to get close, he would go on to win Pennsylvania. Were he to win Pennsylvania, he would go on to win the presidency

In 2016 Hilary Clinton—whose family roots were in the county—won the county, but with barely 50% of the vote; down 13% from Obama's 2012 victory. Trump won 47% of the vote. He got close in Lackawanna County, went on to win Pennsylvania, and went on to win the presidency. All this as predicted.

Joe Biden, a native also of Scranton, in 2020 went on to win Lackawanna with 54% of the vote, while Trump dropped to a little over 45% of the vote. Biden then went on to win Pennsylvania, and eventually the presidency.

In 2024, it is not clear by how much Kamala Harris must win Lackawanna County to repeat the performance of Biden and avoid the loss by Clinton. She certainly needs to win decisively more than 50% and hope that Trump does not improve upon his 2020 numbers. It is doubtful that Tim Walz or JD Vance, two Midwesterners, resonate with undecided voters in Scranton.

Were I advising Harris or Trump, I would tell them to frame your issues and your campaign pitches in such a way to win over the disaffected, undecided voters in Scranton. In a polarized political America, they are at the center and torn between two parties that do not speak to them. The voters there will again this year decide who wins Pennsylvania and who wins the presidency.