A Merry Obama Christmas

It was a good week for Obama according to most politicos. He got repeal of DADT, passage of the arms treaty with Russia, and adoption of the 9-11 victims’ medical funding. After a shellacking on November 2, many see these accomplishments as signs that Obama is not dead and that he is well on the road to redefining his presidency and proving that he will be able to work with the GOP for the next two years. There is, a new life for Obama and he demonstrated that he has the skill to work across the aisle. Obama proved his abilities and competencies this past week.

This is the conventional reading of what happened. But is this reality? Maybe, but I think a lot more has to do with the fact that Obama capitulated on one big item–the Bush era tax cuts–and as a result the GOP got what it really wanted and all else did not matter.

Let’s look at the victories of the last few weeks. Obama gets unemployment insurance extensions, some minor stimulus in the tax bill, and then all the legislation noted above. All good perhaps, but there are other ways to look at all this.

First, too little too late. By that, Obama gets all this way past when it mattered. He needed to get much of this before November 2, to help him and the Democrats. Repeal of DADT before then might have helped with his base. But it took until the last minute after the election to get it repealed. It provided no political bump for November 2, and it is not clear how much passage of any of these items will be either to his base or swing voters in 2012.

Second, many of these items should have been secured easily. An arms treaty, extension of unemployment, and DADT, all should have been easy. Some of them should have received broad GOP support especially when many workers are Republicans who have lost their jobs. Thus, it is good they passed, but that should have happened all along. Obama gets credit for doing now what should have been no brainers earlier in the year. Good job.

But was it Obama’s skills that rounded up Democrats and eroded GOP opposition? This is Obama’s read. However, for the most part, the GOP gave up fighting on these because in the end they were the hostages in a bigger battle–tax cuts for the wealthy.

It’s the (capitalist) economy stupid!
What really mattered to the GOP was the extension of the Bush tax cuts to the rich. This is what they really wanted. It means mega billions for the rich, a massive continuation of wealth transfer or retention for America’s wealthy. It is worth hundreds of billions to them, even though the tax cuts do little or nothing productive in terms of producing jobs, investment, or helping the economy. The cuts do little to stimulate, they do little to ease unemployment, they do little to address home owner foreclosures, they do little to encourage capital investment in the new green economy or in upgrading our infrastructure. They do add $900 to the federal deficit!

The GOP got what they wanted. They and Obama were willing to mortgage America’s fiscal future to serve their political needs.

Once Obama capitulated on the tax cuts he essentially melted GOP resistance on everything else that was being held hostage. To the GOP they were minor issues. Don’t get me wrong, repeal of DADT is important, as is the arms treaty and the other measures passed. But they pale in comparison to the GOP and others in terms of the economic consequences of the tax cut. The cuts continue the economic era of Reagan and Bush, failing to really reverse course on what matters most–the economy.

The melting of GOP opposition on many issues demonstrates how many social and other issues are simply sideshows and wedge issues for the bigger game of the economy and protecting rich corporate interests. Sadly, Obama went along with that in his effort to refine his presidency. He got some things he wanted but at the expense of losing the big one on taxes and the economy.

Thus, the great skill Obama might have demonstrated this past week was to recognize that he could win on all the other issues so long as he gave on this big one. Merry Christmas from Barack Obama.

The End of the Obama Presidency?

The current Obama presidency came to an end last week. What it means for 2012 and his re-election bid is that for the first time I think there is a serious chance that he might not get reelected. The reasons for that are the economy, alienating his base, and potential white voter backlash.

In general it is hard to defeat sitting presidents. Yes, Carter and Bush I both lost, but it took bad economic conditions and a third party vote for Ross Perot to do that. Previous to that, Ford did lose but he was barely an incumbent and he pardoned Nixon, and LBJ opted not to run. However, before that, it was Hoover (1932), Harrison (1892), Cleveland (1888), Van Buren (1840) and John Adams (1800) who lost when running for election. The economy and major crisis seem to be the usual reasons for incumbents losing.

Kerry in 2004 is a testament to how difficult it is to defeat a sitting president. They have to make major mistakes or blunders to lose, or be so dragged down with the economy that their candidacy is destroyed by it. Obama faces both.

The economy remains a mess. In a couple of blogs ago I wrote about the persistent unemployment, the failure to address the mortgage market, and the perception that he favored the banks over the people. These problems persist. Yes, Obama will get some bump from the economy in the next year or so but short of a miracle too many people will be jobless.

Beyond the economy, two fatal blows were delivered. First the failure to repeal “don’t ask, don’t tell” means he has dramatically lost or alienated the young under-30 vote and the GLBT community. They supported him enthusiastically in '08 and stayed home in '10. The latter will be true in '12.

In addition, his compromise on the Bush tax cuts infuriated his liberal base. The cuts may still pass, but he threw Democrats and liberals under the bus in order to appease swing voters. The House refusal to bring the original proposal to a vote demonstrated the anger. Had this been a parliamentary system, the refusal to vote on it would have triggered a vote of no-confidence and a collapse of the government. That is what happened last week effectively.

The fatal error here is Obama alienated his base. They will not vote against him in '12, but certainly they will not come out strong for him. He is counting on them having no alternative and voting for him. Don’t count on it. Ignoring your base and raising expectations–only to disappoint–is the surest way to lose them.

Thus, Obama’s strategy? Hope your base holds their nose and votes for you in '12 out of fear of the GOP, and try to regain the swings voters. Preliminary polls suggest the swings like the Obama tax deal, but is it enough to swing them to his side? Maybe not.

Many who voted for Obama in '08 were whites so disappointed with Bush and the economy they were willing to take a chance. Fear and disgust melted some white opposition but they may not happen again. Obama may have a harder time getting their support.

So, how is the end of the Obama presidency? Obama is swapping one type of presidency for a another. If the narrative of the first presidency was change now it is survival. It is a defensive presidency, one aimed at governing with the support of the GOP and swings and not the Democrats. Why after two years he thinks he can win over the GOP is a mystery to me. Finally, I remain perplexed regarding the narrative that Obama has for the next two years. What is it?

A Note on Michael Bloomberg
Bloomberg has said no to running for president in '12. He has a great opening. A combination with Obama disenchantment, a GOP field that is ultra conservative, and the independent streak the NYC mayor has (plus his money), give him a great opening in '12 if he wants it.