The media and the presidential
campaigns are focused this year on the six or seven swing states that will
decide the presidential election. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris each have
their respective safe states that will vote for them, but neither of them has
wrapped up enough electoral votes to win the election.
In the past Maine, Missouri, and Ohio have
been the critical swing or bellwether states that decided presidential
elections. Within those states powerful swing counties stood out. Whichever
candidate won a county in that state would go on to win that state in the
presidential election.
For years, Hamilton County, Ohio was
the bellwether. Win Hamilton County, where Cincinnati is located, meant that
one would win Ohio. Were one to win Ohio, one would win the presidency. But
demographics and politics have changed. Lackawanna County has replaced Hamilton
County as the most important battleground in the country.
Historically, Lackawanna County voted
for Democrats for president. It was working class, union, and manufacturing. As
late as 2012 Barack Obama won the county over Mitt Romney, 63%, to 36%. But
then the economy changed. The factories closed down. Union jobs exited and
mining ended. The political base of the Democratic Party eroded, and workers
did not see them helping enough.
The Democratic party moved to the
left on many social issues alienating those unemployed workers who used to vote
for them. Today, Lackawanna County sits to the political right of where the
Democrats are, and to the political left of where the Republicans are. It is a
true swing county that is a bellwether of Pennsylvania and national politics.
Eight years ago, in August of 2016 I argued that
Lackawanna County was key to that presidential election. If Trump were to win
the county or to get close, he would go on to win Pennsylvania. Were he to win
Pennsylvania, he would go on to win the presidency
In 2016 Hilary Clinton—whose family
roots were in the county—won the county, but with barely 50% of the vote; down
13% from Obama's 2012 victory. Trump won 47% of the vote. He got close in
Lackawanna County, went on to win Pennsylvania, and went on to win the
presidency. All this as predicted.
Joe Biden, a native also of Scranton,
in 2020 went on to win Lackawanna with 54% of the vote, while Trump dropped to
a little over 45% of the vote. Biden then went on to win Pennsylvania, and
eventually the presidency.
In 2024, it is not clear by how much
Kamala Harris must win Lackawanna County to repeat the performance of Biden and
avoid the loss by Clinton. She certainly needs to win decisively more than 50%
and hope that Trump does not improve upon his 2020 numbers. It is doubtful that
Tim Walz or JD Vance, two Midwesterners, resonate with undecided voters in
Scranton.
Were I advising Harris or Trump, I
would tell them to frame your issues and your campaign pitches in such a way to
win over the disaffected, undecided voters in Scranton. In a polarized
political America, they are at the center and torn between two parties that do
not speak to them. The voters there will again this year decide who wins
Pennsylvania and who wins the presidency.
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