Rush to Judgement: What we Should or Should not Infer from Iowa and New Hampshire

There are 3,979 delegates to the Democratic National Convention.  To win the nomination one needs

1,990 delegate votes.  After Iowa and New Hampshire only 65 or 1.6% of all the delegates have been awarded.  The primary season has barely started.  Yet many pundits, political experts, and the media want to reach broad conclusions about what is happening.  On one level any inferences from Iowa and New Hampshire should be premature yet already we have declared winners and losers, with some candidates having already dropped out and others seen as frontrunners or not.

Bernie Sanders
On many counts Bernie Sanders is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.  While he is only one delegate vote behind Peter Buttigieg (22 to 21 out of the 1,990 needed to win the nomination), he has won the popular vote in Iowa and New Hampshire and he is ahead in the fundraising battle. 
Moreover, with the other liberal Elizabeth Warren coming in third and fourth  in the first two states, her campaign seems to be floundering, seeming to suggest Sanders is on the cusp of consolidating the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.  At the same time, the moderate wing, represented by Joe Biden, Mayor Peter Buttigieg, Senator Amy Klobuchar, and Mayor Michael Bloomberg, is more divided.
Moderates, worried at the prospects of a Sanders nomination, are touting Buttigieg and even Klobuchar post New Hampshire as winners, with the latter, despite a fifth a third place finish in Iowa and New Hampshire, now the latest alternative to a fallen Joe Biden.

Joe Biden
Based on two states, it looks like former Vice-president Joe Biden’s chances for the nomination are not good.  He has had two dismal showings (fourth and fifth in Iowa and New Hampshire respectively), and he appears to be behind two other candidates, Peter Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar for the moderate vote, and behind the frontrunner liberal Bernie Sanders and even Elizabeth Warren.
Why has Biden done so badly?  Several reasons,   One, the center of the Democratic party has moved left from where President Barack Obama and Biden were when they left office.  Two, Biden has run a lackluster campaign and his debate performances have been weak.  Three, like Hillary Clinton in 2008 and 2016, he is running like he deserves the nomination.  Yet to rule Biden out would be a mistake for several reasons.
Yes the results in Iowa and New Hampshire will create momentum, media attention, and money for its winners, Yet Iowa and New Hampshire are very different from the next two states, and even the rest of the country.  The US overall is 60% White Caucasian, with Iowa and New Hampshire respectively 86% and 90%.  They are racially not representative of the country, let alone of the Democratic Party where according to 2016 presidential exit polls 71% of the electorate was White, but 74% of the votes for Clinton were from people of color.
The next two states, Nevada and South Carolina, are 49% and 64% white, with high percentages of the Democratic voters people of color.  These next two states are very different from Iowa and New Hampshire.  Joe Biden enjoys significant support among people of color, especially African-Americans, whereas none of the other candidates do well with minorities.  This may change the race for the nomination in many ways because candidates such as Buttigieg and Klobuchar will be challenged to reach out to a different racial demographic.  So far their appeal has been to run as Midwesterners with Midwest values, failing to realize that such designations are code words for “White” among people of color.  White may work in Iowa and New Hampshire, but it is less clear it will work in Nevada and South Carolina.  And even if they get the nomination for president, there is a calculus here.  How many White Trump votes can they move (when the evidence suggests Trump has 90%+ support of his base) versus how many people of color do they turn off?  The argument for the moderate Democratic candidate relies upon a net positive sum for this tradeoff, especially in critical swing states.

Michael Bloomberg
Michael Bloomberg now will be an increasing factor as he will appear in debates and in the primaries.  He has already spent more than $400 million in advertising, giving him a fourth if not better place in some national polls.  He appears to poll as well as any candidate in a head-to-head with President  Donald Trump.  Bloomberg’s money will be a factor for all of the candidates going forward, not just for the moderates but also for Sanders who will have to basically run against him.  This divide will be a major problem for the Democrats going forward.

Conclusion
More than 98% of the Democratic delegates have yet to be awarded.  The size of Super Tuesday and especially the frontloading of the California primary change the value of Iowa and New Hampshire.   It is not clear that one can really extrapolate from less than 2% of the delegate count to inferring much of anything.

Iowa and the Real Start of the 2020 US Presidential Election

Monday, February 2, is the official start of the 2020 presidential elections.  It is when the Iowa
caucuses take place.  Here are some thoughts.

What should we expect from this primary season?

The Democratic Primary season starts with the Iowa caucuses.  Traditionally the value of Iowa is that it serves as a testing ground and an way to winnow down the number of potential or viable candidates moving forward.

Based on the most recent polls, There is a cluster of four to six candidates who are still viable: Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg.  Bloomberg is not contesting Iowa.  For the first five, to remain viable going forward one probably needs to finish in the top three.  Specifically, for example, Klobuchar, who has made Iowa the centerpiece of her presidential campaign, must come in the top three to remain viable.  Moreover, if she beats Buttigieg, or vice versa, the loser is probably also going to have a hard time going forward.  Similarly, Warren and Sanders are fighting for the progressive wing of the party and the one who comes out on top will be the leader for that side.

Right now, polls suggest it is Biden and Sanders who are in the lead in Iowa.  Sanders is also leading in New Hampshire.  After that, Biden leads in Nevada and South Carolina.  The point is that very rapidly I can see the race turning into a Sanders-Biden contest, with Bloomberg’s money making him a wild car going into Super Tuesday.  All this suggests that the Democratic Party is still torn between progressive and moderate wings, much like in 2016, and the challenge is finding a way to unite the party.  Which candidate can do that and how is an interesting question.

- What's on stake for the Democratic party?
Obviously beating Donald Trump is the big issue, but so is uniting the party, bringing in the next generation of Democratic voters, and taking back the Senate and making gains in the state legislative elections as one prepares for redistricting in 2021.  All of these events define important political events and challenges for the Democratic party.

- What's the biggest challenge they face right now?
Finding a viable message or narrative to defeat Trump along with devising a campaign strategy to beat him in the critical few swing states that will decide the election.
- Which candidate do you think is best equipped to win the nomination?
Right now it looks like Biden is better equipped to win if one follows a convention strategy.  But he may not inspire younger votes.


- Is there any chance to defeat President Trump?
It will be a close election.
The 2020 presidential race is effectively over in 44 states plus the District of Columbia.  Who will be the next president is down to a handful of voters in six swing states.

Based on recent elections, voting patterns, and polling, a Democratic Party candidate for president is nearly certain to win California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, (overall state) Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York,   Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, and Washington.  This is a total of 19 states plus the District of Columbia.  In the case of Maine, Democrats probably will overall win the state and three of its four electoral votes.  The other electoral vote, which is for the Second Congressional district, goes to the Republican.  Democrats start with 222 electoral votes.

A Republican Party candidate will win 30 states plus part of Maine.  These states are  Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, (Second Congressional District), Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.  Republicans start with 216 electoral votes. 

Yet there are six remaining states–Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania,  and Wisconsin–totaling 100 electoral  votes, which are too close to call and they are the swing states that will decide the presidency.  The task for the Democrats is finding a candidate who can not only hold their base states but win enough electoral votes in these swing states to win the election.  Remember:  The popular vote does not matter and national opinion polls do not matter.

The road to the White House starts with Iowa and ends with these six states.

The Electoral College Map Right Now Says Trump Wins in 2020

The 2020 presidential race is effectively over in 44 states plus the District of Columbia.  Who will be the next president is down to a handful of voters in six swing states.

            As Americans have now learned twice since 2000 the presidential popular matters little.  It is the electoral vote and the number of electoral votes it takes to win the presidency is 270.   Because of laws in 48 of the 50 states (Maine and Nebraska the exceptions), whichever presidential candidate wins a plurality of its popular vote wins all of its electoral votes.  Across the country because some states are more Republican or Democratic  leaning, they are safely in the camp of one party or another regardless of  the candidate.

            Based on recent elections, voting patterns, and polling, a Democratic Party candidate for president is nearly certain to win California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, (overall state) Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York,   Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, and Washington.  This is a total of 19 states plus the District of Columbia.  In the case of Maine, Democrats probably will overall win the state and three of its four electoral votes.  The other electoral vote, which is for the Second Congressional district, goes to the Republican.  Democrats start with 222 electoral votes.

            A Republican Party candidate will win 30 states plus part of Maine.  These states are  Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, (Second Congressional District), Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.  Republicans start with 216 electoral votes.  

            The likely voting patterns of 44 states calls into question how important the stand on issues is compared to partisanship.  In these states it does not matter if a Democrat is advocating for Medicare of all or something less, issue stance will have marginal impact on the election.

Yet there are six remaining states–Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania,  and Wisconsin–totaling 100 electoral  votes, which are too close to call and they are the swing states that will decide the presidency.

            These states, exception Minnesota, have swung back and forth between Republican and Democratic Party presidential candidates over the last four elections.  Head-to-head surveys of Trump versus Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg, and Warren find these states to be competitive.  However, even among these six, we can make some guesses about what they might do.  Minnesota is a state Trump almost won in 2016 and is targeting it in 2020.   Yet Trump is losing by double-digit numbers to any likely Democratic candidate.   In Michigan, Biden, Warren, and Sanders are leading Trump, but only Biden appears to have a statistically significant lead.  Move these 26 electoral votes to a Democrat and now it is 248. 

            On the Republican side, while recent polls indicate that Florida and North Carolina give Biden a slight lead in both (Warren and Sanders are effectively tied with Trump), these states are hard for Democrats to win.  They have large white working class populations who are motivated Trump supporters.  Move the 44 electoral votes over to Trump, and he now has 260.

            This leaves Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes and  Wisconsin’s 10 which will determine the 2020 election.  As of now, the only Democratic candidate who has a statistically significant lead over Donald Trump in Pennsylvania is Scranton’s own Joe Biden.  Assume he is the nominee; Democrats win the state  but still are short two electoral votes.

            This leaves it up to Wisconsin.  Biden is  the only Democrat with a lead over  Trump in the Badger state, but it is effectively a statistical tie.  Given the high percentage of white working class voters in Wisconsin, their likely motivation especially post-impeachment, and  devotion of some Democratic resources to winning or holding other Midwest states such as Minnesota or Michigan, move the ten electoral votes to Trump.  With that Trump wins an electoral college re-election with a bare minimum 270-268 victory.
         Now, assume Democrats hold Maine -2, this then makes the electoral vote 269-269, no majority. This then means according to the Constitution that the House elected in 2020 will pick the net president, with each state getting one vote. Right now with the current House Republicans hold a 26-24 edge, with Michigan and Pennsylvania tied. Republicans control a majority of the states despite the fact that Democrats have majority control. Assume Republicans continue to hold a majority of states in the new Congress and Democrats have majority control, Trump wins in the House. The battle for partisan control of state congressional delegations is also important.

            A lot can change between now and November 2020.  How impeachment and the economy play out are two  issues. As we also saw in 2016, campaign strategy  matters, and Hillary Clinton lost in part because she failed to develop an effective electoral vote plan.  Similarly, this preliminary study shows that perhaps only in a few states and among a handful of voters does the actual candidate  stance on issues matter.  But what might matter is whom the candidate is and in what state and based on polling nearly a year out the Democrats best chance of winning the presidency might be with Joe Biden because he appears best positioned to win several swing states, including a decisive Pennsylvania and  Wisconsin.

Ten Questions on Impeachment and the 2020 US Elections

1 - One year out from the 2020 elections, what does it look like?

One year out from the 2020 elections American politics is very polarized.   The US is experiencing the greatest gap in income and wealth at least since the 1920s and studies point to a nation with rigid social mobility.  The result is a nation divided geographically, racially, and most important, politically.

The country is very divided across a range of issues including health care, the economy, foreign policy, and most important, over the performance of President Donald Trump.  Democrats and Republicans have very different views on Trump’s performance, and the coming 2020 elections to a large extent will be a referendum on him.



2 - What are the big election themes?

Really the 2020 elections are about Trump–a referendum on his performance and whether he should get a second term, or even impeached or removed from office.  But beyond Trump, the major issues seem to be health care, both cost  and access, the economy, which seems to be slowing, immigration, and perhaps foreign policy or how the US engages with the rest of the world.

3.  On Thursday the Democrats in the House formally voted to authorize an impeachment inquiry.  What was the significance of that vote?

First, this was not impeachment, merely formalizing what has been going on for several months.  The Constitution gives Congress broad investigatory and oversight powers and the line between those functions and their constitutional power of impeachment is thin.   There is amble case law on this as precedent.  Thus, for a legal perspective the vote on Thursday meant little, but politically it was significant. 

With that vote Donald Trump is only the fourth president in US history subject to a formal impeachment inquiry.  That is not a great club to be in.  But also politically, the vote is important for other reasons.  Trump and the Republicans have thus far complained that the impeachment process is not legitimate and transparent, thereby justifying the president’s refusal to cooperate.  Never ask for something because you might regret getting it. Those reasons not disappear.  Again, from a legal perspective, none of this mattered, but now politically if the president or Republicans refuse to cooperate when they have the ability to do so it looks bad for them politically.  Also, the president’s decision not to cooperate looks even more like possible  obstruction of justice.

Also, now the formalizing of the impeachment inquiry sets up a long process of educating the American public about the president’s behavior.  If the president fights the inquiry, it drags the process further into 2020, placing impeachment into the center of the primaries and perhaps the general election.  The more Trump fights, the more it drags on, the more it gets into the center of the  election.  How the impeachment and the 2020 elections intersect is a great question.  Will it mobilize Republicans or Democrats?  Or is the issue really how it impact party base mobilization and swing voters in a few swing states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin?  This latter scenario may be the real issue.


The impeachment complicates the ability of the two parties to work together, which was already bad.  It also complicates the electoral picture because it is not clear which party the impeachment process favors.  Will it boast Democratic or Republican base voting.  How will it impact swing voters, especially in a cluster of swing states such as in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.  Finally, the timing of a possible impeachment and Senate trial is critical to how it impacts politics.


4 - Three months are left before the primaries begin and four months before Super Tuesday, which this year will have California and Texas.  Where are the Democrats?

Right now the Democratic field for president is wide and deep, but there are really only a handful of serious candidates.  Generally, Iowa and then New Hampshire are the two states that have the biggest influence on the presidential nomination process in the US.  The Iowa caucuses are February 3, 2020.  Yet this coming year California and Texas have moved their primaries to March 30, with early voting in the former coming the day of the Iowa caucuses.   These two primaries may make Iowa less important, or change the strategy of the primary process.  California and Texas will require a lot of money and momentum, and it is not clear that doing well in Iowa will provide either.  In addition, candidates may need to decide whether to commit resources to Iowa–with few delegates–or work to do well in California and Texas, which have more delegates. The change in primary schedules complicates the strategy for 2020.

Moreover, while the Democrats are united again Trump, they lack a defining narrative of what they want to do and what they stand for.  They are missing the elusive narrative.  Right now they are a party divided facing a president who has a unified Republican party behind him.  Despite the slowing  of the economy, a dreary manufacturing sector, and how health care and the trade wars are hurting  his base economically, there is no sign that these factors are eroding his support.

5 - Who are the favorites among Democrats?
At this point it is Joe Biden, Elizabeth, Bernie Sanders, and Peter Buttigieg who are the top tier candidates in terms of money raised and standing in the polls,    Biden is the leader among the more centrists of the party while Warren and Sanders are fighting for the left.  The questions will be who emerges as the candidate of the left and then how will they square off against Biden and then which side–the moderate or the left–prevails within the Democratic party.

What has been surprising is the endurance of Biden.  Despite his weak debate performance, he still is at or near the top in national and many state polls.

6 - What about Trump’s  wall?  Is it still an issue.

The wall was always a metaphor about other things that Trump was forced to own and take literally  as a promise.

The wall will continue to be an issue for Trump and his base, but the impeachment and court challenges to the wall are complicating this as an issue.  Trump will raise it at rallies but he has somewhat moved on to running against his impeachment and Democrats as his core issues along with going after immigrants.

The other issue of possible concern for Trump is the slowing of the US economy, but so far it does not look like it is affecting his support among his political base.

7- How will the China theme impact as elections?

China is a surrogate for immigration, isolationism, and protectionism.  These themes resonate with the Republican base and so far there is no indication that the economic consequences are weakening support among Trump’s base.

8 - Is it possible to apply for an independent (Bloomberg) or a competitive third party to enter the race?
People always talk of an third party candidate or party but the entry barriers, such as costs and legal challenges to get on the ballot, make it unlikely that a third party will emerge.  Bloomberg also dislikes Trump enough that he will not enter as a spoiler.

9 - What about the congressional elections?

It seems unlikely the House will flip, especially with the number of Republicans who are retiring.  The issue is whether the Republican can hold the Senate. Currently that have a 53-47 effective majority.  In 2020 there will be 35 Senators up for election, of which 23 are Republicans.  The impeachment process and possible Senate trial will test their loyalty–support the president or act to protect their own Senate seat.

One should also not forget that many state legislative seats are up for election in 2020. This is the election will determine control of the state houses going into the 2021 census and redistricting.

10–Any last thoughts?
Forget all the national polls.  Remember that the presidential election is about the electoral college and the race to 270 electoral votes. The next president is the only who moves a handful of swing voters in a few swing counties in a few swing states. That is the real presidential election.