Unconventional Minnesota Political Wisdom and the 2020 Elections

Three conventional wisdoms pervade the 2020 Minnesota political landscape.  They are: 1) Donald Trump cannot win the upcoming Minnesota’s presidential race: 2) Ilhan Oman is safe to win re-election in the Fifth Congressional District; and 3) the DFL will hold the State House of Representatives and pick up control of the State Senate.  While all three of these scenarios are entirely possible and maybe likely, there are reasonable scenarios where all three could be wrong and that the Republicans have a good 2020 year in Minnesota.

            Consider first the case for convention wisdom.

            Minnesota is the most reliable Democratic Party presidential state in the country, with the last time a Republican winning its electoral votes was in 1972 with Richard Nixon.  Yes, Donald Trump got to within 50,000 votes of beating Hillary Clinton in 2016, but that was a fluke.  Clinton was a horrible candidate, was beaten badly by Sanders in the caucuses, and did not come back to campaign during the general election while Trump did, especially during the closing days of the election.

            No Republican has won state-wide office in Minnesota since Tim Pawlenty did it in 2006.  In 2018, Senator Klobuchar won 60% of the statewide vote, with Governor Walz nearly winning  54%, Senator Smith 53%, and Keith Ellison (for Attorney General), the weakest performing statewide DFLer at 49%.

            The DFL flipped 18 seats to retake the Minnesota House.  Had the State Senate been up for re-election, convention wisdom is that they would have flipped it too given that there are several vulnerable Republican senators located in suburbs that the DFL won in 2018 House  elections.

            In the Fifth Congressional District, Ilhan Oman won election with 78% of the vote. The last time the Republicans won Minnesota’s Fifth Congressional District was 1960.  Since taking office Omar has acquired a national base and has already raised at least $800,000 if not now nearly $1,000,000 for her reelection.

            As of June 019, Trump’s approval rating in Minnesota was barely 40%.

            Conventional wisdom looks terrific for the DFL going in to 2020 given these statistics.  Trump’s low approval should help the DFL easily hold the state house, pick up the state senate, assistant Tina Smith win reelection, and perhaps allow the Democrats to pick up the First and Eighth congressional seats lost in 2018.  Given all this, this should be little hope for optimism among Republicans and that Minnesota is a lost cause for them. 

Yet Minnesota Republican party chair Jennifer Carnahan  and Donald Trump are optimistic the Republicans can win  the state in 2020.  Perhaps it is not so bleak for the GOP next year and that the conventional wisdom that DFL holds unto may not be correct.

Here is the counterventional wisdom.

Trump’s core base remains highly motivated and if anything, even more united perhaps that before.  Trump has consolidated support in Minnesota outside the Twin Cities metro region, especially in the Iron Range, which used to be a strong DFL center.  The Iron Range has been moving Republican for years.  Trump has indicated he wants to move Minnesota in 2020—the only Midwest state he did not win in 2016—and he plans to campaign  here a lot.

Evidence suggests that Minnesota was moving Republican even before Trump and that the DFL base may be contracting.  In 2008 Obama won  42 of the 87 counties in the state, in 2012 he won 28, and in 2014 Dayton won 34.  In 2016 Clinton wins only 9 counties.  In 2018, Walz wins only 22 counties, Smith 20, Ellison 14.  From 2008 to 2016, the GOP presidential vote increased 47,500, the DFL vote decreased 205,000.  According to CNN exit polls, the partisan voter identification for  the DFL was 37%, for Republicans 35%.  This was the narrowest gap between the two parties in decades for a presidential election, and the lowest partisan identification for the DFL in decades according to presidential exit polls.

In the Fifth District, Omar has made several moves that potentially could alienate voters.  He comments about Jews and Israel, even if not accurately reported, have created a storm of controversy among many voters for her.  With a congressional district with a high percentage of Jewish voters, this is a cause of concern.  Omar is also dogged by campaign finance violations, new allegations about her immigration and marriage status, and perhaps concerns about false tax  returns.  She has become a major foil of Donald Trump who constantly tweets comments about her when he comes to Minnesota, and it is clear that part of his 2020 Minnesota presidential run will be to make it a referendum on Omar.

A critical realignment may place many of the large Twin Cities suburbs in the hands of the DFL for a long time.  This does potentially suggest DFL state senate pick ups there.  But as several 2019 special elections demonstrated, the DFL is vulnerable in rural and greater Minnesota.  The Senate currently is 35-32 GOP.  There may be about four vulnerable suburban GOP senators, but  there is an equal number of DFL ones in greater or rural Minnesota.  For the Democrats to capture the state senate  they may need to flip six or more seats in order to offset losses.

A counterventional GOP strategy begins with Trump campaigning heavily in the state, strengthening his support in rural and greater Minnesota areas.  Democrats did well in 2018 because Trump himself was not on the ballot and with him now actively campaigning in Minnesota it will energize the GOP even more.    Nationally, if Minnesota has become a swing state, it competes for Democrat dollars that could also go into Ohio or Florida, much richer and perhaps even more critical electoral vote states (Yet if Democrats nationally lose Minnesota or have to really defend it, they are in trouble in the 2020 presidential race).

As part of Trump’s 2020 Minnesota campaign, he and other Republicans ratchet up the attacks on Omar.  If her political and personal problems continue to mount, Omar because a potential problem for state Democrats who need to distance themselves from her.  Within her district, while very popular, it would not be impossible to beat her.  Scenario one:  Within a DFL primary someone challenges her.  In the last week reports have been that Minneapolis Councilwoman Andrea Jenkins’ name is being polled as a possible candidate.  In a district where identity is important, Jenkins could split DFL support, giving voters who dislike Omar’s political views and personal problems an alternative.  Scenario two:  Someone like Jenkins opts not to challenge in the DFL primary but go to a general election instead.  Possibly splitting the DFL vote and picking up the GOP in the district elects her.  Scenario three:  In a three way race featuring  Omar, Jenkins, and a centrist pro-Israel Republican, the latter sneaks in to win the Fifth.

Whether the counterventional wisdom or even the strategy is viable is a matter of much debate.  However, it does suggest that the DFL  may not have it easy in 2020 and that there are avenues for the GOP to do well in 2020.

Replacing Keith Ellison–Who should be the next Fifth District Congressperson?

Curiously overlooked in the media coverage of the forthcoming Fifth congressional district DFL

primary have been two things–the issues and qualifications of the candidates running for the office.  Both the Star Tribune and Minnpost have contended that the candidates differ little on the issues–and that may or may not be the case–but generally coverage of this primary has been limited to the horse race of who is perceived to be ahead, the money race of who is raising money, and the perhaps now the get out of the vote race.  Given that the primary effectively will determine the next  member of Congress for the Fifth because it is one of  most Democratic seats in the country, media coverage has been remiss in its coverage in terms of the issues and qualifications.

But there is also another issue connected to both the issues and qualifications and that is the question of what it means to be an effective member of Congress.  This is always an important matter because given how the Fifth District is a safe seat for one party–as are approximately 90-95% of all seats in the House of Representatives–and thus the vote on August 14, could very well decide who represents the people of this district for the next 20 or more years. But given the polarized times and significant policy differences across the  state if not the country, the winner of this seat could well be part of a new majority Democratic Congress taking on Trump and defining the future for the party, or it could be part of a close opposition party doing the same.  The point here is that the Democratic Party and the country are at a critical crossroads nationally, and what happens in the Fifth District will be important.

So what does it mean to be an effective member of Congress?   As a society we do not discuss this issue enough and this should be a critical question for residents of the Fifth District.  However, there are some factors that do influence or determine effectiveness.

  First, qualifications do matter.  By that, one of the criticisms of Donald Trump is that he largely fails to understand government and  how it works.  Whatever skills he has as a businessperson, government and business are two different entities.  There is an ethic of public service that involves respect for the Constitution and Bill of Rights, there is an understanding of how government works that involves respect for things  such as checks and balances and checks and balances. There is appreciation for the fact that in government process matters.  Being effective in government, whether president or a member of Congress, means one needs experience or skills to do the job.  One should not hire just anyone to rewire your house, fix your car, or repair your plumbing.
The same is true for governing and legislating.  To be effective as a legislator or member of Congress means having some legislative  skills, or at least the kinds of skills necessary to legislating.  These include listening to constituents,  working with other legislators, grasping the details of how institutions work.    In short, experience matters.

A second qualification is about the very notion of what it means to be a representative.  The very word “represent” is an ambiguous term.  To represent can mean to be demographically representative of the people you serve.  It can also mean to represent in terms of reflecting their view or interests.  There is no definitive answer to which of these or perhaps others meanings of representation are correct.  It is probably a blend of them.  But there are also two other critical notions surrounding representation often ignored.  One is the idea that one should not simply represent those who voted for you for everyone in your district.  The second is that with a person in the Fifth district potentially being a representative for the next 20 years, that person should be capable of serving the interests of an area that is undergoing significant generational change into the future.  One should be a candidate not simply for your present voters in a primary who will perhaps only reflect a small percentage of all the voters in the Fifth District, but be someone capable of representing those who live in Minneapolis as well as its suburbs.  It should also be one who can perhaps look to the future, to be representative of a coming new generation of residents.  In the last few years Minneapolis, Saint Paul, and the surrounding areas have begun to experience this generational shift, and a good candidate in the Fifth has to be one who can project or reach into the future.

Finally, to be an effective member of Congress means connecting one’s experience to the people one represents, to the ability to work with other members in a legislative setting to be able to move legislation.  Too often in the era of social media the image seems to be that legislating is simply about espousing beliefs or ideas. The real skill is in transforming beliefs into real legislation.  It is in building political coalitions, connecting them policies, developing policy details and programs, and then understanding how to move them through a legislative chamber.
As one of my former students once said, there is a difference between show horses and work horses.   
We have had enough show horses in Congress and what we need instead are a few more work horses, those who have show the experiences to do the job, the ability to link people to policies, and the skills to navigate legislation.   Connect all of this do a person capable of reaching out to all the constituents of the Fifth along with the ability to appreciate the generational change going on in that district and one would have the ideal candidate for Congress.