Wednesday, November 2, 2022

What I Could do With $44 Billion (and It Would not be Buying Twitter)

My latest from Counterpunch. 


Elon Musk added a new toy to his collection with the $44 billion purchase of Twitter.  I am sure he will be happy with his new toy. He has already fired senior management, thousands of others are expected to be ousted or stiffed.  Already reports are that new racist messages are being sent. It appears to be a victory for capitalism and free speech.  Wall Street should be happy.


With all the worry about what will happen to Twitter and whether it was worth it for Musk to buy it there is another question simply being ignored in the mainstream press–Why should anyone be allowed to be worth what Musk is and why should he be able to drop $44 billion to buy anything, let alone Twitter?


Capitalism is amazing.  It has produced unprecedented wealth in the world.  It is the story of the wealth of nations, of the occasional person who rises from nothing to become rich.  It has brought forth technological innovations never seen before.  It has transformed peoples’ lives in countless ways.


Yet it has also given us the serious gaps in inequality both with the US and across what used to be called the North and South or First and Third Worlds.  It has given us pollution, global warming, colonialism, and reinforced and transformed racism and sexism.  For free marketers it is all about freedom and creative destruction, for its critics it has done little, especially in recent times, to address poverty, disease, and the quality of life for billions of people across the planet.


Musk is a living embodiment of Ayn Rand’s John Gault.  To many he is a hero because of  Tesla and the coming electric car. Or he is a hero because of SpaceX and the race to Mars.   Or simply he is a hero because he shows the power of capitalism to produce wealth for its own sake.  Yet we have to remember that he is worth so much because he exploited so many workers.  He is not the self-made person many assume–he was born rich and used his privileges to enrich himself.  Now he is super rich and can use his power not with great social responsibility, but in a way that caters to his whims and desires.


Musk is more powerful than a nation state.  His musing about how to settle the Russian war against Ukraine to the former’s advantage is more than simply idle thoughts. Rumors that Star Link–the satellite service Musk owns–were manipulated and blacked out the Ukrainian army at one point show the power he could exert over matters of war and peace and national sovereignty.


But let’s put the $44 billion in perspective. How large is that amount?  If Musk were a state, his $44 billion would make him the 86th largest GDP in the world.  His purchase of Twitter would be slightly larger than the $41 billion GDP of Serbia, yet just shy of the $47 billion of Lithuania.  His expenditure to buy Twitter is larger than the total GDP of the 31 poorest nations in the world.


This $44 billion is almost three times as large as the total amount of military aid the US has given to Ukraine since Russia invaded.   It represents about half the equivalent of total global aid to  Ukraine since the war started.


But what if we are not talking about military aid?  World Program USA estimates that it would take $40 billion to end world hunger and feed the most hungry for a year.  The Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimates it would take $50 billion to reach 70% vaccination level for the entire planet.  According to the World Health Organization, “At a potential cost of about $5 per dose, including its distribution, it would cost around $325 million to administer each year across ten African countries with a high incidence of malaria.”


The World Bank estimates it would cost $150 billion to provide potable water to all who need it. Closer to home, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) estimates it would cost $20 billion to end homelessness in America and the remaining $24 billion of the purchase price of Twitter could feed all the hungry 60 million Americans who visited food shelves last year.


There are countless other things that could have been better funded or spent on globally or in the US that could have helped millions of people.  While governments and societies as a whole should be responsible for doing this, Elon Musk had a choice and an opportunity to prove capitalism  can do something good.  He opted not to do that. Remember that the next time someone praises his genius.

Tuesday, October 25, 2022

Rout and Route: What Happens to Minnesota Democrats on and After Election day 2022

There is the real possibility that Minnesota politics could be a rout this November.  It would be a rout of


the DFL and a major victory for the Republican party, potentially putting the latter in charge for the first time since 1984-1986 when it was the last time the GOP controlled the state legislature and the governorship.  It might also represent the culmination of the Trump and Republican Party effort that first started in 2016 to flip the Midwest.  Of all that happens, what is the route for the Democrats after election day?


The National Scene

Six months ago it would have been an easy prediction to argue this election cycle nationally and statewide was favorable to Republicans.   Generally the president’s party does badly in midterm elections, losing an average of 26 House seats. Six months ago Biden had approval ratings of about 40%, Voters disapproved of the president’s handling of the economy despite the fact that there was record low unemployment and the strongest labor-wage  market in years. For voters the economy was inflation at the gas pump and grocery store.  Voters were also concerned about crime.

Nationally Democrats had either no narrative or a bad narrative when it came to the economy or crime.  But then the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade and abortion saved the Democrats, temporarily.  For several months abortion was the major Democrat talking point nationally and in Minnesota, and it appeared to save them as it motivated many groups, including college educated suburban women.

Until a month ago or even less it looked like abortion would save Democrats. But national polls suggest that abortion has run its course.  The economy or inflation and crime are the top two issues by far, with abortion third or even lower.  This is even true among suburban women.  Polls now suggest that US Senate races where the Democrats were once favored, such as in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, are tightening and it is possible Republicans could prevail.

Minnesota
Minnesota is an American political microcosm.  MPR and Survey USA (KSTP) polls point to an electorate worried about inflation or the economy and crime.  This includes suburban voters.  Polls suggest a close race for governor’s race, Attorney General, Auditor, and even Secretary of State.  Depending on voter mobilization and how the few undecided voters break, these races could go DFL or GOP.  Many think the GOP will win at least the AG and State Auditor.   The DFL holds a narrow majority in the Minnesota House and the Republicans a small but solid majority in the Senate.  The only real tight Congressional race is in the Second District where DFL incumbent Angie Craig holds (according to internal polls) about a one-point lead over GOP Tyler Kistner.  

While I see no chance for the DFL to flip the Senate I am also doubtful that it will hold the House. It is thus entirely possible for the DFL to get swept out of the four statewide offices and lose the second Congressional District.

Were the above to happen, what went right for the Republicans or wrong for the Democrats?

Messaging and Strategy
One answer is that the results in Minnesota are determined by national trends.  An unpopular president, inflation, and crime are macro forces beyond the control of anyone in Minnesota. Republicans rode the wave and Democrats got buried in it.  But such an explanation ignores too much.

Nationally Democrats had no message or narrative on inflation or crime.  Granted there is little a president can do to address inflation, but the talking points were awful or next to none.  The same is true with crime. Biden and the Democrats could have stolen a page from Bill Clinton  and proposed money to hire 100,000 police but they did not.  Instead, they became painted yet again as soft on crime.
The same problem exists in Minnesota. Walz and the Democrats relied too much on abortion to save them.   They were tagged two years ago as soft on crime with the riots after George Floyd’s death.  They were tagged with the defund the police movement and failed to articulate a narrative of public safety.  In terms of the economy there may be little they can do at the state level to address inflation. But the fact that they failed to craft a narrative is a problem.

Moreover, the strategy was bad.  Walz sat on his lead and cash advantage and avoided debating.  It cost him dearly. Recent KSTP polls point to a weakening of his support in his former First Congressional District.

Effectively, Walz and the Democrats have written off all but the Metro region.  In 2018 Walz won 20 of Minnesota’s counties. In 2016 Clinton won 9 counties, in 2020 Biden won 13 counties and Tina Smith 15 counties.  The base of the DFL is narrow and counts on high mobilization in a few Metro area counties.

I spend a lot of time traveling the state to lecture and give talks.  It is clear the Metro DFL agenda on crime, the environment, and social issues don’t play there.  The Metro area DFL, party activists here, or the convention attendees and activists are out of touch with the rest of the state, and perhaps with many leaning DFL in Greater Minnesota and even in the suburbs.  As noted above, polls suggest erosion of support for the Democrats in most locations across the state, including in the metro suburbs and among college-educated women.

Summary: Rout and Route?

To state clearly–The DFL and Walz may have a message out of touch with most Minnesotans who are nowhere near as progressive as the Metro area or core Twin Cities activists. This in turn  renders their strategy to win difficult because it is one narrowly confined or defined to a narrow base.  Moreover the messaging or narrative fails to understand the depth of concern regarding crime and  the economy and its focuses too much upon an agenda that appeals to the progressive wing of the party.  Couple that with a campaign strategy that aims to mobilize only in a few counties, that fails to counter the GOP narrative, that focuses too much on abortion this year, and which, in the case of Walz, sat on a lead, one then gets the makings for a rout.

If that rout occurs, the question on the day after the election will be to ask what route should the DFL have taken to avoid the rout, and what direction should it take going forward?

Monday, October 24, 2022

Why schools fail: a view from a college professor

 My latest was an oped in the Star Tribune.



Why schools fail: a view from a college professor

We need to let teachers teach. 

By David Schultz OCTOBER 22, 2022 — 6:00PM


“The ACT and its SAT competitor are poor predictors of college performance, at best only telling us a small fraction of what factors affect student success,” David Schultz writes.


Declining Minnesota ACT scores may be a problem. But even disregarding test numbers, there is a problem in how well our schools are preparing students for college.


This is what I see as a college professor.


ACT is a standardized test taken by high school students and it is used by colleges along with grades as admission criteria. ACT scores have declined nationally in recent years. This newspaper also reported how the most recent scores for the Minnesota class of 2022 are the lowest in at least a decade. The low scores seem not to be the product simply of the pandemic. They began falling dramatically in 2016 and continue to slide.


There are reasons to dismiss the ACT slide. The ACT and its SAT competitor are poor predictors of college performance, at best only telling us a small fraction of what factors affect student success. They are also racially and class biased, with numerous studies pointing to how they discriminate against people of color and the poor. They are partially coachable; families that can pay for a college prep class can improve their children's test scores and access more elite schools.


Tests such as the ACT are part of a self-perpetrating cycle of elitism that stratifies American education along racial and class divisions. For these reasons and others many colleges are abandoning the ACT.


Nonetheless, declining ACT scores portend problems regarding what we teach and do in K-12 and the college-readiness of many of our students.


I write from the perspective of a 30-year-plus college professor who has taught thousands of undergraduate students at four-year public and private schools and also at the community college level. At one time I wanted to be a high school teacher. I regularly visit and teach at public and private high schools across the metro region at the request of teachers. Often the students involved are in advanced placement classes. I see students in the postsecondary enrollment options program (PSEO), and I do teacher training for high school teachers.


What I see and hear is not good.


When I talk to high school teachers they often ask me what I am looking for in college students and what can they do to prepare them to succeed in college. When I tell them what I want they agree that what they are doing is not what the students need.


It is not because the high school teachers are bad — I often work with the best — or that the unions protect bad teachers as conservatives charge, or that public schools are inherently bad. It is because schools and politicians do not let teachers teach.


Schools and curriculum are so standardized-test driven that teachers do not have the opportunity to work with students to develop critical thinking, problem solving, other substantive skills or bodies of knowledge, or to talk about things that won't be tested.


The problem started perhaps with No Child Left Behind under the Bush administration and it has only turned worse. This factory model of education constipates learning and education.


In my first teacher's education class my professor drew a triangle on the board, labeling the three corners school, home and community. He said it took all three to properly educate children.


Students are only in school a few hours for less than 180 days per year. Alone, schools cannot educate. Society ignores the importance of stable and healthy families and integrated and safe neighborhoods in supporting education. In a state with horrible race and class disparities it is no surprise so many fail in school.


But failing the poor and people of color is only part of the problem.


I see a persistent decline in basic skills and knowledge. To be educated is about what you know and how you know it. It is not simply rote memorization for a standardized test. Too many students lack college skills. Many do not know how to outline. Many do not know how to take notes in class. Few know what a literature review is. They are not taught how to read a book and analyze plot and characters.


Many students do not know how to study. They are spending less time on homework now than a few years ago. Many lack the grit to work through assignments. Many enter college unprepared.


The culture war students' parents and the political parties are fighting corrupts learning. This was happening well before the recent hysteria and backlash over critical race theory. Education is not about reinforcing but about challenging preconceived biases and beliefs. From both the right and the left I see a refusal to confront ugly facts challenging their biases.


I also see, more now than a few years ago, intolerance for disagreement and a lack of empathy for intellectual diversity.


We live in a state that is a national educational leader. We have open enrollment, charter schools, magnet schools. There are also repeated calls for vouchers. There is minimal evidence these gimmicks have made much difference in terms of college preparation.


When I tell my high school teachers what students need to succeed they concur. For them, the failure is not junior high or elementary school, it is the entire way we educate.

Friday, October 7, 2022

Minnesota 2022: The DFL is in Trouble

 Note: This is a long-overdue blog on Minnesota politics.  I hope to return to regular blogging after this


long break I took.

If the recent polls are accurate the Minnesota Democratic Party is in danger of losing several statewide constitutional offices, in addition to control of the statehouse.

A recently conducted KSTP Survey USA poll indicates that while Governor Walz maintains a ten point lead over Scott Jensen (with 7% undecided and a margin of error of 4.4%), the other three offices–Attorney General, Secretary of State, and State Auditor are all close, within the 4.4% margin of error (credibility interval) with 13% 18%, and 18% undecided respectively.  Can we trust these polls and what do the numbers mean?

Geek Alert:  A Concern About the Survey Methodology

As I reviewed the recent poll I had a lot of questions.  Remember it was a similar KSTP poll several weeks ago that had Walz leading over Jensen by 18%, while a poll a few weeks later by MPR, Kare 11, and the Star Tribune had the lead at 10%.  No one seriously thought Walz had an eighteen-point lead then. He is less popular today than four years ago when he ran in a good Democratic Party year. The September KSTP poll was simply bad, at least for the governor’s race.

This new poll released October 5-6, surveys 825 individuals. The survey has 59% from the Metro region (which is about correct).  It also has more registered Republicans than Democrats (37% to 36%), which may be a little biased to Republicans based on2020 exit polls. It was a mixed mode-survey that involved telephone (landline) or a cellular device but it is not clear what the percentage of the two was, so it is difficult to assess bias here.  Finally the survey uses a credibility interval instead of margins of error.  For many statistical reasons, I find such intervals inferior to margins of error.  My point here?  It is not clear how good the methods in this survey are and whether it is biased in favor of Democrats or Republicans. But for the sake of argument, assume it is a good survey.


Interpreting the Results

Months ago nationally and in Minnesota Democrats were in trouble.  Crime and the economy were the major issues.  Then the Supreme Court issued the Dobbs opinion overturning Roe v. Wade and abortion rights.  This temporarily put Republicans on the defensive.  Abortion, falling gas prices, and a slight bump in Biden’s approval ratings seemed to help Democrats.  Yet this new poll, as well as national ones, point to a resurgence of crime and the economy as major issues, with Republicans favored as better able to handle them. 

Yes, abortion remains an issue, especially for college-educated suburban women, and if they show up to vote on this issue the DFL will do well.  Yet this issue has to be weighted, even among these women, compared to crime and inflation in terms of what will motivate them.  These issues also need to be looked at also in terms of how other groups are motivated to vote. The bottom line is that abortion is not the clear-cut winning issue for Democrats as they thought.  Moreover, while   at least 60% of Minnesotans seem to support abortion rights, the DFL and the Democrats have framed the issue poorly.  They are talking abortion and not reproductive rights. The latter would be a better strategy to reach a larger group of people, especially more moderate Democrats and independents.


Dog Whistles

Democrats and Republicans both have their dog whistles and coded messages this year.  For the GOP crime again is about race and they continue to run against Democrats who supported the badly phrased “defund the police” message.  In addition,w hile some see Jens’e reference to “furries” and school children using litter boxes as missteps, it was a terrific dog whistle to mobilze his base on social issues while he walks away from abortion.

For the Democrats, abortion is the dog whistle is abortion.  It appeals to some constituencies, especially women and their core base.

Assessing the Campaigns

Second, while Walz has a lead he has run a horrible campaign.  As a matter of fact, none of the constitutional officers are running good campaigns, with Jensen making one misstep after another.  Walz has sat on his lead and his money advantage and has chosen not to debate. This is a critical mistake.  It looks either like he is afraid to debate or worse, in light of the fraud scandal involving Feeding our Future, like he is hiding.  His fight with a state judge over whether the latter ordered the Minnesota Department of Education to continue funding the non-profit was a mistake.  Overall, with a ten-point lead with a 4.4% margin of error, his lead could be as low as 6%.  With  seven percent undecided, and generally with those undecideds breaking 60/40 against the incumbent, the governor’s race is potentially down to just a few single digits.

Conclusion

I have written three editions of Presidential Swing States where I feature Minnesota. While the state has noted gone GOP in a presidential race since 1972 with Nixon, or statewide for a Republican since 2006, there are many demographic and voting patterns that favor the Republicans, including this year.  The KSTP poll while potentially flawed may suggest the state is more competitive than many think.

Monday, June 27, 2022

History, Abortion, and the Reactionary Politics of the Roberts Court

 

The Supreme Court under Chief Justice John Roberts is the most reactionary ever in American history. 


Its Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision taking away abortion rights from American women is the first time the Court has ever overturned a constitutional precedent to take away rights.  But let us not forget that this Court has also killed the Voting Rights Act by declaring most of it unconstitutional in  Shelby County v. Holder and Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee.  It has also killed union rights and unleashed corporate political money in Citizens United.  And it has consistently chipped away at the separation of Church and State as evidenced in the recent Carson v. Makin.  For a Chief Justice so worried about his legacy and the reputation of the Court, history will not be kind to him.

            Ironically, history is central to the Roberts Court assault on rights.   Better yet it is the abuse of history in its method of legal analysis and reasoning. 

            Starting back with Ronald Reagan’s Attorney General Ed Meese conservative jurists, including Justice Antonin Scalia and the members of the Federalist Society, argued that the Constitution should be interpreted in light of the intent of the framers.  Such an approach, asking us what  a bunch of slaveholders, bankers, and  land speculators  who were White and Christian thought about the rights of average people  such as women, the poor, and people of color most certainly would doom their rights.  That is why Justices such as  Earl Warren, William Brennan, and others argued that rights need to be looked at in terms of the evolving standards of decency that mark the maturing of society.  We need to read our Constitution with an evolving political morality that reflects  political sensibilities reflective of today, not  fixed in stone in 1787.

            While some argued  that an intent of framers methodology was a neutral tool of interpretation, it really was window dressing for a conservative political ideology.  It was no coincidence that the so-called  most faithful adherents of such an interpretative approach were conservative and consistently  ruled against individual  rights.

            But now the Roberts Court this term has taken its interpretive tool further by asking whether a right is  “deeply rooted in this Nation’s history and tradition.”  If it is so deeply rooted then  it is a right protected by the Constitution, if not the Court will not protect it.  In Dobbs, the Court offered its version of history to conclude “that that a right to abortion is not deeply rooted in the Nation’s history and traditions.”  Conversely, the Court invoked history in New York State Rifle and Pistol Association to strike down a gun law by arguing  that the right to carry a gun in public for self-defense is consistent with the “Second Amendment’s text and historical understanding.”  Finally in Kennedy v. Bremerton School District the Court upheld the ability of a public school football coach to kneel  and do prayers  after a game, despite concerns by the school about First Amendment Establishment Clause issues.  The Court declared that the ”Establishment Clause must be interpreted by “ ‘reference to historical practices and understandings.’ ”  Apparently praying after football games is deeply rooted in our history.

           The three opinions all have something in common—the use and abuse of history.  The Court invokes history to support its outcomes, but it just so happens that its history supports a Christian, misogynist, gun-toting view of the world.  It is an opinion that is revolutionary and reactionary at the same time.

            A central premise of American law is that it is supposed to be precedent based.  Once the Supreme Court decides an issue it is settled law and unless there are extraordinary reasons to overturn  a prior opinion, one is expected to  follow precedent. Precedent is law. It is part of the Constitution along with text. Over time some of the most fundamental rights in American history, the  right to vote, privacy, marriage,  and use of contraceptives have been the product of Court opinion, reading into the Constitution rights reflective of an evolving  political morality and sensibility.

           This is what makes the appeal to history and tradition so dangerous.  It pits the text of the Constitution, the historical sensibilities of its framers, and an American history and tradition of racism, sexism, and Christian parochialism against reform.  It freezes right  back to 1787 or, as pointed out in Dobbs, to a point at the time of the adoption of the Fourteenth Amendment in 1868.   Dobbs, as Clarence Thomas’ concurrence declares, sets up the Court to reconsider the right of same sex couples to marry, the right to birth control, and the right of same sex couples to engage in private consensual sexual acts.  Such an interpretive  approach is not neutral—it is inherently  in opposition to rights.

Thursday, May 26, 2022

The Second Amendment is no Bar to Gun Regulation, the Problem is Political Will and Public Policy

 


A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed.

 

            The mass shooting in Uvalde, Texas has placed gun violence  in the news for the third time in a month.  It has also placed gun regulation and debates over the Second Amendment on the political agenda, with some such as Senator Ted Cruz declaring that the Constitution is bar to limits on the right to bear arms.

            The Constitution is not an impediment to reasonable gun regulation.  The real problems are threefold:  The  Supreme Court,  a lack of political will, and devising policies that will work  to address gun violence given the reality of there nearly four hundred million legally owned guns in the United States.

 

The Original Meaning of the Second Amendment (and why it may not matter)

What does the Second  Amendment mean?  There are really two issues here.  The first is whether the Amendment protects  an individual right to bear arms.  The second question is if the Amendment does grant an individual right, is that right unlimited or absolute? 

Unfortunately, the original text and intent of the  Framers of the Amendment is not clear.

When in 1789 James Madison introduced  seventeen  amendments to the Constitution, one eventually became the Second Amendment.  His original wording was:  “A well regulated militia, composed of the body of the people, being the best security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed.”  Debates in Congress  over the meaning and language of the Amendment are in determinative regarding whether it protected an individual right.  The same can be said regarding debates in the states regarding ratification of the Second Amendment.

However, until 2008 the few Supreme Court cases that addressed the meaning of the Second Amendment declared that there was no individual right to own guns.

 Five decisions are regularly cited regarding the interpretation of the meaning of the Second Amendment. In the earliest decisions, rendered in the aftermath of the Civil War and the ratification of the Fourteenth Amendment, the Court ensured that state militias could support the government by maintaining public order. This interpretation meant that the “right to bear arms” was seen as a collective, not individual right, regulated by Congress and the states.

The first case which provided the Supreme Court’s interpretation of the Second Amendment, United States v. Cruikshank (92 U.S. 542, 1875), rose in that legal context.

A private militia of former Confederate soldiers and members of the Ku Klux Klan attacked a group of Black citizens, who had occupied a courthouse to protect Republican office holders, resulting in the Colfax Massacre of many African-Americans. The federal government prosecuted a small number of the almost one hundred accused perpetrators under the Fourteenth Amendment claim that these white individuals had denied basic constitutional rights (the right to vote, bear arms, assemble, etc.) to the Black citizens they had attacked and/or executed. The Supreme Court found these charges to be vague, and all of the charges were eventually dismissed. The majority opinion noted, “[t]his is one of the amendments that has no other effect than to restrict the powers of the national government.” The Court did not find the Second Amendment applicable to the states or to limiting the actions of other individuals. This decision was reinforced by the only two other decisions rendered by the Court on the Second Amendment in the 20th Century.

The 1886 case of Presser v. Illinois (116 U.S. 252), while arising under different circumstances, reinforced the Cruikshank interpretation of the Second Amendment. Brought by a private white militia in Illinois, which had been constrained by state law from publicly drilling with their weapons, the Court found the Amendment to be “a limitation only on the power of Congress and the national government, and not of the states.” 

Similarly, United States v. Miller (307 U.S. 174, 1939), which upheld the constitutionality of the National Firearms Act of 1934, requiring the registering of certain weapons, reinforced the notion that the Second Amendment was a barrier against Congress passing laws that would preclude the state from maintaining an armed militia of its citizens. Because the Second Amendment was seen as a collective right, not an individual right, these decisions made it clear the Court understood the Second Amendment as allowing states to regulate firearm possession and ownership, not inherent to “the preservation or efficiency of a well-regulated militia.” The standard of judicial decision making noted in Miller was the lowest test of “some reasonable relationship” between the regulation and the constitutional guarantee. While this was the status of the constitutional interpretation, the scope of the Second Amendment was not a closed debate post-1939.

 

Heller and the Individual Right to Bear Arms

Continuing controversies included the following: Does the text of the amendment protect an individual right to keep and bear arms, or is that a collective right maintained within the context of a militia? Until District of Columbia v. Heller (554 U.S. 570) in 2008, the Court had not explicitly addressed this question. The debate between Justices Scalia and Stevens highlights the contrasting ways the Court uses test, history, and precedent in seeking to understand how the language of the Bill of Rights applies in a society centuries removed from that of the Framers.

In Heller, the Court stated only that the Second Amendment protects an individual right. To reach that conclusion the Court engaged in both a tortured  textual analysis of the Amendment and a weak amateurish or law office reading of the history of the text.

But in reaching that conclusion the  Justice Scalia and the Court did not specify what that right is actually protecting, and he went out of his way to assert that the ruling would not invalidate many traditional restrictions on gun ownership. Moreover, the ruling affects the District of Columbia and the federal government only. The Heller decision did not incorporate the Second Amendment to apply to the states, but in 2010 in Chicago v. McDonald the Court did that, meaning that both the federal and state governments were limited by this Amendment.

Heller resolved the individual-collective right issue.  The decision may or may not be correct, but unless a future Court reverses itself or the Constitution is amended,  the current reading of the Second Amendment is the law of the land.

 

What does the Second Amendment Protect?

            Does the Second Amendment grant an absolute right to bear arms?  The answer is no. No Amendments are absolute.  The First Amendment rights to free speech or assembly are not absolute, and there is no reason to think the Second is either.  In Heller, the Court seemed to identify the core right of the Second Amendment is to possess guns for self-defense and maybe hunting.  But such rights do not mean an unlimited right to  possess and use any kind of gun or weapon, and it also does not mean that such rights apply to all equally.

By 2016, all states allowed individuals to carry a concealed weapon; only the District of Columbia prohibited it. Many states adopted “Stand Your Ground” laws that recognize an individual’s right to respond to an imminent threat, without a responsibility to retreat, as long as that individual has a right to be there. Other states passed “Duty to Retreat” laws, which prohibits people from resorting to deadly force in self-defense if they are able to avoid harm by running away or other means. There is also great variance in laws regarding the carrying of concealed weapons on college campuses across the country.

Since McDonald, a large number of cases have been litigated on these and other grounds, but because there is still no clear standard for constitutional analysis for these cases, there have been mixed results in the lower federal courts.

Some state regulations have been upheld as constitutional, while others have been struck down. Among the notable decisions have been that a State may ban firearms on college campuses, DiGiacinto v. Rector and Visitors of George Mason University, 281 Va. 127 (2011); juveniles had no right to carry a handgun, U.S. v. Rene E., 583 F.3d 8 (1st Cir. 2009); no constitutional right to possess machine guns, Hamblen v. U.S., 591 F. 3d 471 (6th Cir. 2009); states may ban felons from possessing firearms, U.S. v. Williams, 616 F. 3d 685 (7th Cir. 2010); and, states may ban persons convicted of domestic violence from possessing firearms, U.S. v. Skoien, 614 F. 3d 638 (7th Cir. 2010). These decisions speak to the dicta penned by Scalia in Heller that many long-standing gun laws may be constitutional and that the Second Amendment, as seems to be the case with other amendments, is not absolute.  The point being that the regulation of guns to promote public safety is not absolutely barred by the  Second Amendment.

So What is Stopping Regulation of Guns?

            There are three issues that really limit the ability to regulate guns to promote public safety.

            The first is simply a lack of political will.  Specifically, the NRA is a potent lobbying and political force that worked hard for years to secure the Heller and McDonald decisions.  They took a page out of the NAACP which did a remarkable job in the twentieth century to overturn  segregation.  The NRA mobilizes voters.  Large percentages of the population support gun rights, as does the Republican Party.    Gun advocates vote, those who wish to limit the regulation of guns are not as mobilized by the issue as the latter. This is simple politics.

            The second problem is the Supreme Court.  The current Court is among the most conservative in history.  It supports gun rights and it might invalidate a current New York State law that regulates guns.  That law would limit the ability to carry a loaded gun in public.  The Court heard oral arguments in November 2021 and it looked like it would strike the law down.  How the Court will be affected by the Uvalde is a good  question.  However, given  the leaked opinion potentially striking down abortion rights despite public opposition to that, one doubts  that Uvalde will change their mind.

            Finally, and maybe most importantly, the problem is what do advocates of gun regulation want to do and what can realistically work to reduce gun violence?

            Begin with a reality check.  Like it or not, the best estimates are that 40% of US households have guns and there are perhaps 300 million+ guns privately owned in the country. Like it or not, guns are not going away and even if the Supreme Court were to reverse itself and declare there is no individual right to bear arms, all the existing guns are not going away. Like it or not, banning guns in a mass way will produce a firearms bootleg problem that will make alcohol smuggling during Prohibition look like child’s play. 

            But what are we trying to accomplish with the regulation of guns?  Serious policy debate is marred in faulty logic and bad argument.

            To start, the phrase “gun control” has simply become a politically charged phrase used by  different political parties to mobilize their voters and base. 

            Second, the phrase or argument “guns don’t kill people, people kill people” is equally  misguided.    Guns dramatically facilitate violence.  One does not see mass killings take place with  sticks and knives, and most robberies and other violent crimes involve guns and not other weapons.

 

What is the Policy Problem and What is the Policy Solution?

            Third,  our focus on guns is misguided.    What are we trying to prevent, or as I ask my students, what is the problem we are trying to prevent?

            Some argue that the problem is not guns but mental illness and that the solution to gun violence is to prevent the mentally ill from getting guns.  This assumes all mentally ill people are violent and those who are sane are not.  Our prisons are full of lots of people who use guns and commit  crimes and the law has deemed them sane.  There are millions of people in America with mental illness problems and few are violent. But even if preventing the mentally ill from obtaining guns were the solution, it is not clear that universal background checks would catch everyone.

            Much of our focus also is on mass killings and the use of assault weapons.  Since 1982 there have been 128 mass shootings with 1033 deaths. 

In 2018 alone, according to the Center for Disease Control, there were 39,740 deaths due to firearms. Public mass shootings that year constituted only 0.2% (two-tenths of 1 percent) of all firearms deaths that year.

In 2018 13,958 individuals killed themselves that year with guns, constituting 61% of all firearms deaths that year. There are nearly fourteen times more gun suicides per year than there have been deaths by mass shootings in nearly 40 years. An American Journal of Public Health study showed a strong relationship between levels of gun ownership in a state and firearm suicides.

Additionally, among the weapons used in murders in the U.S., FBI information reveals that handguns were the choice in 64% of the crimes. Among suicides, handguns were used 69% of the time. Even in mass shootings, handguns were used 78% of the time. An American Journal of Preventive Medicine article pointed out that rates of gun ownership, especially of handguns, are more associated with homicide in the home than with homicide outside the home. According to a Social Science and Medicine article, handguns are far less likely to be used in self-defense and instead are more associated with domestic violence, especially against women. Despite the belief that mental illness is the underlying cause of mass shootings and gun violence, there is little evidence, according to an American Journal of Public Health Study, among others, that those with mental health problems are more likely to commit violence with a gun than those lacking such a diagnosis. Finally, more than 250,000 guns per year, according to The Trace, are stolen from the proverbial law-abiding owner because they have not been properly secured, and are used in crimes.

            The point is that handguns are a potent problem when it comes to suicide, robberies, and domestic assaults.  We largely do not discuss these issues.  Addressing these problems, along with mass killings and perhaps now racially motivated killings is not a simple problem that can be easily solved.  We probably need to have far less guns in our society.  We  need to make cultural  changes that address the link between patriotism, Americanism, and guns.  We need to find a way to develop alternative ways to resolve disputes or anger that are not facilitated by guns.

            The problem thus is not the Second Amendment.  It is the political will and desire to address violence in America with the development of effective public policies and not political slogans.

Sunday, May 8, 2022

Abortion Rights in Minnesota Without Roe v. Wade: It's Not as Secure as Some Think

 

The leaked draft opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson’s Women’s Health Organization portends the US Supreme


Court will overturn  Roe v. Wade and women’s  right to terminate their pregnancies.  The opinion declares that it will be up to states and the political process to decide abortion rights.  Some in Minnesota declare were Roe overturned one need not worry because abortion rights are independently protected in the state.  Think again.  Such complacency regarding abortion rights by  its defenders  in thinking that Roe was the final word could also doom  similar rights protected under Minnesota law.

 

Roe v. Dobbs

            Roe v Wade is the 1973 Supreme Court opinion declaring that a constitutional right to privacy protects a woman’s right to terminate a pregnancy.  In reaching that conclusion the Court  built its decision off of previous  decisions. While nowhere explicitly in the Constitution can one find a right to privacy., in cases such as Griswold v. Connecticut the Court ruled that such a right is implicit in the Third, Fourth, Fifth, Ninth and Fourteenth Amendments.


            Roe expanded the right to privacy to include the right of women to terminate their pregnancies.  Yet that right was not absolute and it could be regulated or limited by a compelling state interest.  Protecting the rights of the fetus was not such an interest because the Court ruled that an unborn entity was not a person  according to the Constitution.  But protecting maternal  health was  a legitimate interest.


            Over the years those opposed to abortion have sought various ways to overturn abortion rights.  The have exploited  the maternal health  loophole to place limits on where and when abortions could be performed.  The Supreme Court has upheld many of these regulations but also struck down many.  For abortion rights advocates, they could always count on the US Supreme Court would come to their defense.   This was the case even in the 1991 Planned Parenthood v Casey decision where the Supreme Court reaffirmed Roe.


            The draft opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson’s Women’s Health Organization suggests that a nearly fifty-year political mobilization by those who are opposed to abortion rights has paid off.  The draft suggests Roe will be overturned and it will not be up to the states and the political process to decide what abortion rights, if any, women will have.  The opinion said that they will review any regulation of abortion  under what is called a rational basis test.  This means a broad presumption of constitutionality for abortion limits, even in cases of rape, incest, or the health of the mother.


            Dobbs is a complete reversal of  Roe. But it is only a draft.  It is still possible the Court sill not formally overturn Roe but merely gut it, saying it remains valid law but still allow for many more limits on abortion.

 

Gomez v. Roe

            Were Roe overturned or abortion rights significantly limited the focus turns to the states.  Some are prepared to ban abortion others have laws or rules in place to protect abortion rights.  In theory Minnesota has such protections too, but the legal safeguards for abortion in the state are more tenuous than one might think.


            As it was true at the federal level, there is no explicit right to abortion found in the Minnesota Constitution.  The basis for abortion rights is found in a  1995 Minnesota Supreme court decision Women of the State of Minnesota v. Gomez.  At issue in that case was a state law that restricted the use of public funds for abortion-related medical services to three limited circumstances while permitting the use of such funds for comprehensive childbirth-related medical services. Here the Court ruled that providing public funds to pay for maternity costs but not abortions violated the rights or poor women.


            But in reaching that conclusion the Court, also building upon previous right to privacy cases, contending that fundamental right of privacy under Article I, Sections 2, 7 and 10 of the Minnesota Constitution includes the right of a women to choose to have an abortion.  Moreover, critical to the Minnesota Supreme Court reaching that decision was that the State of Minnesota, specifically the Attorney General, had conceded that such a right exists.


            Thus, the right to privacy protects right of women to terminate pregnancy but the case law never said it was absolute and this case was decided within the conduct of public funding for abortions.  Gomez,  was decided by a very liberal Minnesota Supreme Court which conceded at the time that its ruling was very limited.  All of this is important  because the right to abortion in Minnesota  under Gomez parallels that under the US Constitution in Roe in that both were judicially crafted rights constructed through  judicially crafted  rights to privacy. 

 

Gomez v. Dobbs

            As we are seeing with Roe and Dobbs, abortion rights under Gomez could be vulnerable in many ways.


            One, without a federal  right to abortion, a state right is less protected.  A future Congress and president could  pass a law making abortion illegal.  Based on the Dobbs draft opinion, a future Supreme Court could declare a fetus a constitutional person with rights and therefore Gomez decision could effectively be overturned at the  federal level.  Or maybe as a result of political mobilization the state passes such a law and the Minnesota Supreme Court has to decide how to resolve  the rights of a mother versus her fetus.


            Consider other possibilities.  A future governor and state legislature pass a law banning abortion and such a law is litigated before a Minnesota Supreme Court less supportive of such a right. While at present the Minnesota Supreme Court  may look pro-choice, it would not take much time over several elections to replace them with those who oppose abortion.  Several years ago in Iowa after its Supreme Court ruled that its constitution protected the rights of same-sex couples to marry, those opposed to the decision  successfully replaced several of the justices in elections.


           Or think of a future attorney general unwilling to defend abortion rights as was the case in Gomez.  Or consider  a possible future constitutional amendment.  The point is that Gomez maybe a temporary firewall for abortion rights, a concerted political mobilization movement by groups such as Minnesota Citizens Concerned for Life could easily destroy such a right.


          Abortion rights advocates should not be so complacent in thinking that Minnesota is safe no matter what the Supreme Court does or what a final version of Dobbs is.  Complacency is why  we are where we are today at the federal level, and the same fate could befall Minnesota.