If ever there were a state known as deeply blue in presidential elections, it would be Minnesota. Yet Donald Trump has declared his intention to flip the state in 2024 and he plans to speak at a Minnesota Republican Party event on May 17. Is Minnesota a swing state? Surprisingly, perhaps yes.
Minnesota is the most reliable state in presidential politics for the Democrats. The last time a Republican won the state was Richard Nixon in 1972. Even in 1984, when Ronald Reagan won a blowout election, Minnesota stayed true blue voting for its favorite son, Walter Mondale.
If one looks at Minnesota right now, one sees a state with a trifecta if not a quadfecta. Democrats control both houses of the legislature as well as the governorship and all the Supreme Court justices are also appointed by Democrats. No Republican has won statewide office in Minnesota since 2006 when Tim Pawlenty last won the governorship. All this would suggest that Minnesota is not a swing state.
But consider an alternative view. Back in 2016, Hillary Clinton lost to Bernie Sanders in Minnesota’s Democratic caucus but chose not to come back and campaign. Donald Trump campaigned heavily in Minnesota only to lose the state by 50,000 votes, or one and a half percent. That suggested that perhaps Minnesota is winnable for a Republican candidate.. But to counter that, in 2020, Joe Biden won the state by seven percentage points.
If we look at the characteristics that make for a swing state, Minnesota demonstrates many of them. For example, it has a high percentage of white working class in terms of voters compared to Wisconsin, which has 56% white working class voters, Michigan at 53%, Minnesota hovers around 50%.
The racial composition of Michigan is 77.5% White Caucasian, Wisconsin 84.3%, and Minnesota right in the middle with 81.6%. In terms of college degrees, Michigan has 32% of its population with a college degree, Wisconsin 33%, and Minnesota 39%. Minnesota demonstrates many of the characteristics that we see in Wisconsin and in Michigan, two more famous swing states.
Minnesota also bears many other characteristics of other swing states.
Over the last twenty years control of the state legislature has flipped back and forth between the Democrats and Republicans. The current Democratic Party control of the legislature was a result of exceedingly close elections back in 2022. Democrats hold a 34-33 majority in the Senate and had less than 2000 votes shifted Republicans would have controlled the Senate. In the House, just a shift of about 2,500 votes might very well mean Republican control.
There are 87 counties in the state. Democrats are winning on average between eight and 12 of those counties in statewide elections, giving Republicans significant regional support. This is another characteristic of what we see in other swing states.
There is certainly no guarantee that Minnesota is actually in play in 2024. But Donald Trump's decision to compete here and to come to Minnesota for the annual Republican Lincoln dinner are indications that he wants the Democrats to defend the state. For every dollar and every minute that Joe Biden has to spend in this state he can't spend them in another swing state.
If Biden's goal is to expand the election, to force Trump to defend North Carolina, and Florida, Trump is forcing Biden to defend Minnesota. Additionally, campaigning in Minneapolis and St. Paul, or up in Duluth, this also benefits Donald Trump because the media markets for those two regions reach far into Wisconsin. Running ads in the Twin Cities and Duluth media markets thus also have the benefit of being a two-fer.
The reality of winning Minnesota is irrelevant. It is the tactic of forcing Joe Biden to campaign here for were he to take the state for granted. Minnesota might go the route of what it nearly did in 2016. When Hillary Clinton took the state for granted and nearly lost the state.
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