Don’t wish for something, it might happen. When it comes
to American politics in 2024, that might be the warning for Democrats seeking
to keep Donald Trump off the ballot in Minnesota or Colorado or for Republicans
trying to impeach Joe Biden. For every
political action there is an opposite reaction and for both parties what they
might get is a backfire that could do
the opposite of what they want.
Consider the state of contemporary politics. It is a polarized winner-take-all-environment. There are maybe five states—Arizona, Georgia,
Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin that are in play. Within those states, only a handful of swing
voters in a handful of swing precincts will decide the race to 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. The US House and Senate are closely divided,
with perhaps no more than 20 suburban House
seats and six Senate seats in play that will determine partisan control. Trump
and Biden are tied in the national polls.
Nearly
forty states have partisan trifectas, giving
one party complete control of the legislative process. These trifectas show the importance of
winner-take-all politics versus split
government gridlock.
Now consider the current strategies. Democrats in Colorado and Minnesota and perhaps in other states want to use the insurrection clause of Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment to keep Trump off the ballot in those states. Using a clause designed to remedy post-Civil War concerns regarding the 1866 election to keep former Confederates from serving in office and of which many legal historians question its applicability today, the strategy is to have election officials or state courts declare Trump and insurrectionist and therefore ineligible to appear on the ballot.
Keeping Trump off the Ballot
in Minnesota
Let’s consider the possibility of this in a
quadfecta state such as Minnesota where
Democrats control both houses of the legislature, the governorship, the state
supreme court, and even the secretary of state as the top election official.
The
attraction or lure is great. Exclude Trump
from the ballot in Minnesota and one is guaranteed ten electoral votes without
much work. The resources can then be
shifted to Wisconsin or another swing state.
Never mind no Republican has won statewide office since 2006 and no
Republican presidential candidate since 1972.
But
there are powerful downsides to this strategy.
One, if there is not even the semblance of a competitive presidential
race in Minnesota, it may be hard to motivate
Democrats to come out to vote. Trump draws out Democrats to vote. Without a competitive presidential race, down
ballot races may be impacted.
Two,
if a 6-1 Democratic Party majority on
the Minnesota Supreme Court throws Trump off the ballot it will only further
add fuel to the national claim of rigged
elections. Minnesota will become the rallying cry to motivate Republican voters
to come out in record numbers to support their guy.
Three,
even if the Minnesota Supreme Court does not remove Trump from the ballot, the
damage may already be done. Even the
hint of doing this raises the stolen
election fear both in the state and nationally, thereby propelling Republicans
to the ballot.
Finally,
now consider one more issue—abortion. The US Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade
and abortion rights was a blessing for Democrats in the 2022 midterm
elections. It is still a salient issue.
But in 2023 Democrats in Minnesota went
beyond codifying Roe, enacting legislation arguably going beyond what most of
the state’s public opinion supports. Republicans
already plan to use the phrase “abortion on demand” to motivate their base in
2024, including a highly motivated pro-life anti-abortion constituency.
Rumor
has it that the Democrats want to go
beyond codification of abortion rights and put it in a constitutional amendment
and on the ballot in 2024. In part the
reasoning is to motivate their base.
Yet
Democrats need to remember 2012 when a Republican legislature thought a voter ID and marriage amendment would juice up their base and win them the elections. The result backfired
and Democrats took over the legislature and single-party control of the state.
Impeaching Biden
Biden enjoys tepid support among Democrats going into
2024. He has low approval ratings among
the general public and he does not garner enthusiasm among Democrats. He is vulnerable in part because Democrats
may not come out for him.
The best thing Biden has going for him so far going into
the 2024 election is Trump may be his opponent and that the House of Representatives
is controlled by Republicans. He gets to
run against both next year. But that
still may not be enough to save him.
Enter impeachment.
The Republican House will likely impeach Biden later this
year or in 2024. The validity of the
impeachment grounds do not matter.
Impeach Biden is meant to handicap him while running for re-election. It is political tit-for-tat. Trump was impeached, impeach Biden. Trump has legal problems, divert attention
from them and his trials by impeaching Biden and forcing a Senate trial on to
television and into the social media. It
levels the legal playing field between Trump and Biden, and it serves as a way
to motivate Republican donors and voters.
Except perhaps not. There is no way a Democratic
Party-controlled Senate will convict Biden.
There is even no guarantee it will hold a trial. But much in the same way the Trump’s first
impeachment motivated his voters (and
had it not been for Covid and his mishandling of it he might have won him the 2020 election) after
the 2018 midterm elections, a failed impeachment of Biden might simply be the
thing Democrats need to rally their voters around Biden and bring them to the
polls in 2024.
The lesson is don’t wish for something because if you get
it, it may backfire on you.
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