Republican operatives such as
former House Speaker Paul Ryan among
others believe their party has a problem.
For Ryan
it is Trump, for others
such as Annette Meeks, a former Republican candidate for Lieutenant-Governor in
Minnesota, it is a lack of vision, messaging, or even a failed state nomination
process that produces candidates out of
touch with suburban voters.
All this may be correct but
something more fundamental may be at root.
It is not the messaging but the actual message or vision that is the
problem. And it will grow as a problem
into the future as the Republican Party faces an existential crisis in the
coming years as its base is literally dying out.
America needs viable party competition, including a viable Republican Party. There is no democracy in the world that is a
one-party state. The parties too must
reflect majority preferences, tempered
by respect for the rights of minorities.
But to win elections and govern
parties must build coalitions and form majorities. This means they need to reflect majority
preferences or face oblivion.
Yet what Ryan and Meeks do is
confuse the symptom with the cause. For
Ryan, he sees Trump as the problem. Jettison the latter from the Republican
Party and it can return to "Reagan 2.0,” a
party of limited government, deregulation, and low taxes. For Meeks part of the solution to achieving roughly
the same vision is changing the party
nomination process such that extremists do not win control. For her, she wants what I have advocated for
more than thirty years—abandon the caucus-convention process to nominate candidates
and go directly to to a primary. The party is more than the activists, it should
be the larger group of voters who ascribe to a limited government free market
vision.
But perhaps the real problem is the message or the underlying
public policies that Ryan and Meeks
advocate. Even if a Reaganite set of
public policies were where America and Minnesota once was
40 years ago, that is no longer the case. The country currently finds broad majorities
at odds with the policies of what their
vision of the Republican Party should be.
Every two years since the early 1970s the National Opinion Research
Center (NORC) at the University of Chicago
performs the General Social Surveys.
The GSS is arguably the most
comprehensive survey on American public opinion in the country. The most recent 2021 study is instructive on
many scores.
Consider first regulation of the economy and the
role of the government in society. In
2021, 51% of the those surveyed believe
taxes on the rich are too low or much too low. Nearly 67% believe that those with higher
incomes should pay a much larger share of their income in taxes than those with
low incomes.
More than
57% believe the government has a responsibility to meet the needs of those who
are sick, unemployed, or elderly. More than
64% believe or strongly believe business profits are not fair. More than 70% believe that the government should
ensure wages of low paying individuals
increase as the economy grows and a similar 71% believe the income distribution
in America is unfair More than 55% favor
more government regulation of the economy. Nearly three-quarters believe
workers should be represented on
corporate boards of directors.
Additionally, 66% believe or strongly believe the
government spends too little to ensure individuals are healthy. When it comes to protecting the environment and improving education, 62% and 65% have similar views.
When it comes to social issues, nearly 69% believe
abortion should be legal, although with
some qualifications. Almost half at 46% believe climate change is due to human activity—a response
more popular than any other. Three out
of four favor permits to own guns. And 61% believe police treat Whites a lot fairer
than Blacks. Finally, 74% oppose opening up public lands for development.
Across the board it is clear that majority
opinion nationally and probably in
Minnesota favors a more activist government
to regulate the economy and business and to ensure that the basic needs of individuals are met. This is not laissez-faire Reaganism. Moreover the stance on social issues such as abortion,
guns, and the environment is not about do nothing when it comes to reproductive
freedom, crime or safety, and climate change.
The vision articulated by Ryan and Meeks simply is out of touch where
the majority of America is. And they
will become less popular over time.
As the Baby Boom and Silents exit the political
scene and are replaced by the Millennials and Gen Z, this generational shift
makes Reaganism 2.0 even more antiquated.
Surveys of the latter two generations even more strongly support the
majoritarian preferences noted in the GSS.
As greater Minnesota depopulates, the base for the Republican Party will wane.
In 2022 the Republicans did win 74 of the 87 counties in Minnesota, but
the big five—Dakota, Hennepin, Olmsted,
Ramsey, and Washington—constituted nearly 48% of the statewide vote and are growing.
Over time the more urban and suburban areas of the state will continue to grow.
And these areas hold attitudes on issues consistent with the GSS results.
As I argue in my new book Trumpism: American Politics in the Age of Politainment—the
number one rule of politics is having a good narrative that is forward and not backward looking. The
Ryan-Meeks message is retrograde and fails to appeal to an existing and
emerging majority.
Demographics are not destiny but they do portend change.
The Democratic Party too faces existential
problems but for the Republicans the problem is more pressing in a state where
they have not won statewide election since 2006 and have failed to win the presidency
in 50 years.
In 2012 after Mitt Romsey lost the presidency to
Barack Obama the national Republican Party soul-searched and concluded it needed
to change to reach out to women and people of color. Trump’s ascendency forestalled that. The problem is not a messaging issue for the
Republicans, it is a message and policy problem. As with dinosaurs who failed to adapt and
became extinct, the Republicans need to do the same.
PS: In a subsequent blog I will discuss the
problems facing the Democratic Party.
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