After
Minneapolis first adopted and used Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) in its 2009
elections, the
Minneapolis Elections Bureau asked me to do an evaluation. In that report, I drafted a description of
RCV in terms of the pros and cons and how it is supposed to work. Now that the early voting in Minneapolis and
St. Paul has begun, I decided it was time to reprint this section of the
report.
What is RCV?
In
November 2006, voters in Minneapolis adopted RCV as their preferred method for
running elections and selecting candidates in their city. The decision to make this switch came as a
result of several years of lobbying and mobilization by individuals and groups
such as Fair Vote Minnesota (FVM). The
voting mechanism that RCV voting replaced is known as first past the post
(FPTP) or simple majority rule.
FPTP
is a simple voting system. It states
that whenever there is an election for a single member seat, such as for mayor
or a city council seat, the candidate who receives the most votes wins the
seat. Thus, in a two-person race, the
candidate who wins 50% of the votes plus one wins the race. In races with three or more candidates, the
one who receives the most votes wins, even if that candidate wins less than 50%
of the total vote. In non-single member
races, such as where two candidates are to be elected, the top two vote getters
are elected, again whether or not they receive more than 50% of the vote.
In
voting, citizens are allowed only one vote for each office holder to be
selected. If voting for mayor, each
eligible voter is allowed to case one vote.
In multi-member races, such as when citizens are allowed to elect two
school board members, each voter is allowed to vote for up to two
candidates. They may not cast more than
one vote for a specific candidate. FPTP
is often described as simple majority rule—yet, as noted above, there are no
requirements for a candidate to receive a majority of the vote unless that is
an additional stipulation imposed by law.
Minneapolis prior to 2009 employed FPTP in all of its elections.
Criticisms
There
are several criticisms of FPTP. One is
that the lack of a majority requirement means that candidates elected in single
member districts may take office even though only a plurality of voters cast
ballots for them. The concern here is
that candidates do not enjoy the legitimacy of majority support if they take
office with less than 50% of the voters having supported them.
A
second criticism is that FPTP creates disincentives for third party candidates
to run for office and get elected. The
reason for this is that voters, fearing that a vote for a minor or third-party
candidate would effectively result in the candidate they desire the least being
elected. Thus, third party candidates
are viewed as spoilers who voters are reluctant to support. For example, in the 2000 Florida presidential
election, many argued that Ralph Nader was a spoiler. By that, some argued that votes cast for
Nader came from otherwise Democratic votes that would have gone to Al Gore had
the former not run. Thus, Nader votes
effectively produced a victory for George Bush, the candidate some contend who
was the last choice for Nader or Gore voters.
While
there is mixed evidence that Nader served as the spoiler as described above,
the argument is that in general voters will not vote their first choice (a third-party
candidate) if they perceive that the candidate does not have a real chance of
winning, for fear that it would lead to the election of the candidate they
least desire. This in turn means that it
will be difficult for third party candidates to run, thereby insulating
Republican and Democratic parties as the two major parties. Thus, FPTP decreases incentives for voting
for third party candidates and effectively limits voters to a choice among the
two major parties.
RCV
is supposed to address many of maladies of FPTP. At its most basic, RCV involves three
candidates, A, B, and C, all running in a single member district. Voters are asked to rank choice their candidates,
indicating on a ballot who their first, second, and then third choices
are. In order to be elected, a candidate
needs to win 50% plus one of all the votes cast. Assume that there are 100 voters, one could
have this scenario.
A
receives 51 votes.
B
receives 30 votes
C
receives 19 votes.
Under
this scenario, candidate A is the winner.
However, assume a different situation where
A
receives 45 votes.
B
receives 30 votes
C
receives 25 votes.
Under
this scenario using RCV, no candidate is initially declared the winner. Instead, the candidate with the least number
of votes—C—is dropped from the ballot and her votes are transferred to A and B
based on the expressed preference of the voters when they ranked their
preference for candidates. Whoever then
receives 51 votes is declared the winner.
RCV
does not give voters multiple votes; it merely allows voters to rank their
candidate preferences. Votes are then
transferred from voters’ first choice to their second choice (or third if there
are more candidates) until someone receives the 50% plus one votes. At no point does any individual voter receive
more than one vote or have more than one vote counted in single-member
districts.
Benefits of RCV
Advocates
of RCV contend that this voting procedure is superior to FPTP. They argue first that RCV addresses the
problem of candidates being elected with less than 50% of the vote by mandating
a real majority to take office. This
addresses the issue of minority (less than 50%) candidates taking office,
thereby ensuring that majority rule is actually honored. Second, the argument is that RCV deals with
the spoiler psychology. Specifically,
because voters know that they can rank choice their candidate preferences they
have a greater incentive to vote their first choice, even if a minor party
candidate, because the candidate cannot be a spoiler. If no candidate in the first round of voting
receives more than 50% of the vote then votes are transferred from one’s first
choice (a third-party candidate, for example), to the remaining
candidates. Assume for a voter her first
candidate choice is C, second choice A, third choice B, and assume:
A
receives 45 votes.
B
receives 30 votes
C
receives 25 votes.
Under
this scenario, since C received the least number of votes, that candidate is
removed from the ballot and votes for her are transferred to the voters second
choice. In the case of the voter above,
her vote would transfer to A. If enough
second choice ballots from those who voted for C are transferred to A then, A
wins. If more second choices go to B,
then B wins. There is no guarantee that
a voter’s second choice will win, but RCV supposedly creates an incentive to
support one’s first candidate choice and not view a ballot cast for her as a
wasted vote.
As
a result of RCV, voters are potentially encouraged to support third or minor
party candidates, minority parties are therefore encouraged or given better
opportunities to run and win, and voters are therefore given more choices
beyond the two major parties.
Criticisms of RCV
There
are also criticisms frequently directed against RCV. The first is that this voting mechanism is
biased in favor of political parties on the left. Second, that this voting procedure is
non-monotonic. Specifically, using RCV
it is possible to vote in such a way that a specific voters’ ranking that their
candidate will yield election of a lesser-ranked or preferred candidate. Third,
that RCV violates the one person, one vote standard for the counting of votes. In response, to these criticisms, there is no
empirical evidence that RCV favors candidates of one political persuasion or
another. Second, while RCV is
non-monotonic, so is FPTP. Third, no
voters have their ballots counted more than once (by that, each voter gets only
one vote per round counted in a single-member race) and there is no double
counting of ballots.
Dear Prof DSchultz,
ReplyDeleteMy work in publishing services brought me to your profile on behalf of a client seeking considered reviews for his book.
Perhaps you’d agree that the challenges the United States and its citizens face have not accrued because people are open-minded and proactive. Unfortunately, the bias today tends towards the unhappy idea that the country is broken and nothing can be done.
This prevailing zeitgeist is also greatly reflected in the many books being published on the topic that promote rather negative conclusions based almost exclusively on poor outcomes that little consider the processes that lead to those outcomes; this is not useful!
What would be useful is a discussion focused on verifiable alternatives and this needs to be encouraged.
Thank you,
Andy
PR Review Team