If
Joe Biden and the Democratic Party wants to beat Donald Trump this fall
selecting Amy
Amy Klobuchar is being vetted
by Joe Biden as a possible vice-presidential pick. Commentators such as Kathleen
Parker, David
Byler, Norman
Sherman, and probably every member
of the DFL Party in Minnesota think she is the logical and obvious choice. Of
course, they say, she is the perfect moderate to complement Biden’s candidacy. She has won in Trump territory; she will deliver
Minnesota and appeal to Midwesterners.
Let’s start with basics—vice-presidential picks really do
not matter much. There is this conventional
folk wisdom, call it an“old politicians’ tale," or cherry tree history (the
reference to allegedly George Washington cutting down a cherry tree and
admitting he did it by saying “I cannot tell a lie”) that vice-presidential candidates matter and they can be game changers for a
candidate. Some point to John Kennedy
selecting Lyndon Johnson in 1960 and
winning Texas as proof. However, Texas
was still a Democratic Party state then.
Moreover, as the
single best book on vice-presidential selection has shown,
vice-presidential candidates have little impact on voter choices for president. It is not that Veeps do not matter at all, but their influence is
very slight and the media and politico hype over them is really overblown. Similarly,
there is little if no evidence that vice-presidential picks can help a
presidential candidate win the former’s home state.
Let’s assume vice-presidential picks matter; Is Klobuchar a good choice? Not really for several reasons. For one, she is a moderate just like
Biden. The liberal base of the
Democratic Party needs to show up and vote in 2020 unlike in 2016 where it
stayed home. Biden does not excite the
liberals, and neither does Klobuchar.
Klobuchar is similar to Hillary Clinton’s choice of Tim Kaine in 2016—unobjectionable
but not excitable, especially to the liberals.
Second, there
is this belief that Klobuchar will help
deliver the Midwest or Trump voters This is naïve for a couple of reasons. One, Minnesota is not like the rest of the Midwest; its
politics is very different from Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa. What plays here does not necessarily play elsewhere. A Minnesotan on a ticket does not get you
Wisconsin. Proof of that is the second
point—Klobuchar staked her presidential campaign on a good showing in Iowa—she came
in a distant fifth. Similarly, years ago
Minnesotans Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty thought the Minnesota proximity
to Iowa will lead to victory in the Hawkeye State—it did not. There is simply limited appeal from one state
to another. As far as winning Trump voters, the day Klobuchar cast a guilty vote in the Senate to impeach Trump is the day she lost those voters.
There is also the issue of maybe placing Klobuchar on the
Biden ticket will help the latter hold Minnesota. Recent polls show Biden in a competitive race
with Trump for Minnesota. Assuming
Klobuchar can deliver Minnesota, the
problem is that if Minnesota is really in play and Biden needs her to
hold the state then the Democrats are in real danger of losing the
presidency. Minnesota is a must-win
state for Biden.
Finally, the police
choking of George Floyd has all but ended Klobuchar as a viable
vice-presidential candidate. This racial
incident, in the county where Klobuchar was a prosecutor, will only highlight
the vulnerabilities the senator has with Black voters. Biden is going to be under even more pressure
to pick a person of color as vice-president and he needs the Black vote to win.
Amy Klobuchar may be a fine senator and perhaps would
have made a good president or maybe even a vice-president. Yet the issue is whether she can help Biden
and Democrats is a different question
and here it is not clear she can add to
the ticket.
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