Covid-19 changed everything and nothing in the 2020 Minnesota Legislative session. The state entered the session with a partisanly-divided legislature preparing for the 2020 elections, and it exited on May 18, looking at a predictable special session to get its work done.
Where we were then and Where we are now
Remember where Minnesota in February 2020? The State had an imaginary budget surplus of $1.5 billion+. It was imagine because while inflation is counted for revenue but not obligations, this surplus was barely 3% of the nearly $48 billion adopted biennial budget. With inflation from 2019 and 2020 running at 2%, the real surplus was maybe $500 million.
The Minnesota DFL and Republicans were in a race to how to spend the money. Child care? Tax cuts? Special education? It was poised to be an election year spend to win year, with both parties hugely divided in terms of priorities.
But then in two fateful weeks in October it all changed. Covid-19 hit and by April it was clear the state was not imaginarily $1.5 billion surplus, but $2.4 billion in the hole. All non-related Covid-19 spending was out and the state was going to need to address the health crisis and think about what to do with this deficit. The DFL House and the GOP Senate were so divided to the point of partisan wearing of masks or not.
By law, Minnesota cannot have an operating deficit. It should have addressed this issue by May 17, or run the risk of making it worse later on. It did not. It did not adopt a bonding bill. It also did not ratify the collective bargaining agreement with state workers. It was divided over the Governor’s executive orders and the handling of Covid-19. It also did not do a lot of other stuff, necessitating a special session.
Covid-19 may have changed the issues but it did not alter the pre-existing partisan geographic divide. It only gave it a new face.
The New Normal or Special Sessionaplooza
It should not then be a surprise that yet again Minnesota is having a special session. This is part of the New Normal that began in 1997-98.
Since statehood in 1858 we have had a total of 54 special sessions, including the anticipated one later this year. This means that out of the 162 years of statehood, there is an average of one special session every three years (33.3%).
From 1858 through 1996 there were a total of 36 special sessions, averaging about once every four years (0.26).
From 1997 through and including 2020 (24 years), there have been 17 special sessions. This means on average there are three special sessions out of every four years (75%). I pick 1997-98 as a benchmark for what I call the new normal. The new normal or era of MN politics begins in about 1997-98 with the election of Ventura as governor in 1998 and the GOP take over of the MN House. This time period represents the point when DFL political power and influence waned in MN and the politics of the state became more polarized and divided.
Of the 53 special sessions that occurred since statehood. 22 or 45.2% were called to finish required work not completed during regular session. Since 1997 nine out of 17 or 52.9% have been to complete budget matters that needed to be completed. Two thoughts. First, getting all the work done during the constitutional deadline has always been a problem but it is even more so in the last 21 years. Second, it is clearly the case that in the last 20-21 years special sessions are far more frequent and have shifted from occurring on average once every four years to three out of four years. Third, since 1998, we have had two partial governmental shut downs (one under Dayton in 2011, one under Pawlenty in 2005), and a near shutdown under Ventura in 2001. Also under Pawlenty in 2009 there was a significant budget fight that involved his unallotment of money to balance the budget that was eventually struck down by the Minnesota Supreme Court in 2010.
Prior to 1997-1998 there were no government shutdowns in Minnesota history. Minnesota also appears to be at the top or near the top–at least in the last 20 or so years–in terms of the number of shutdowns (2) plus a near shutdown (1). In the entire history of Minnesota, there has been a total of five uses of unallotment, three occurred since 1997-1998.
So yes, it is clearly the case that the last 22 years does represent a new normal in many ways for Minnesota government, marked by the frequency of special sessions, shutdowns, use of unallotments. Minnesota, right down to having the only party-divided state legislature in America, is a mini version of the USA as a whole.
What is Next? Deja vu all over again
There will be a special session. A deal on bonding bill is possible but not guaranteed. But looming as even more pressing but ignored is the fate of the $2.4 billion deficit. No one seems to be talking about how and when it will be addressed. This is like 2002 all over again.
In 2002 in the last year of the Ventura administration the US and Minnesota economies crashed as a result of the 9/11 attacks. The state had gone from a massive budget surplus to a growing deficit. The Ventura administration responsibility proposed some tax increases and budget cuts to address the problem. Roger Moe majority leader in the Senate, and Tim Pawlenty, majority leader in the House teamed up and punted. They produced a phony bill that counted inflation for revenue but not obligations and delayed or pushed some spending into the next fiscal year, creating the illusion of a budget solution. We have never recovered from that political expediency.
Look to see in this election year 201 legislators do the same. They will delay the hard choices until after the election and into next year and make the budget problems worse than they are now.
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