tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8638998837390550464.post3171774542494045334..comments2024-02-26T11:57:59.502-06:00Comments on Schultz's Take: Blink: How and Why Mark Dayton lost the Budget BattleProfDSchultzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14428175737629801650noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8638998837390550464.post-27293321269511305322011-07-21T14:10:21.310-05:002011-07-21T14:10:21.310-05:00Prof. Schultz,
I'd like to get your take on t...Prof. Schultz,<br /><br />I'd like to get your take on two recent articles since your posting:<br />http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2011/07/16/bute/<br />http://mnpublius.com/post/6075887875/new-poll-shows-blockbuster-support-for-mark-daytons<br />I agreed with everything you said from about July 14th-July 18th; but as apolitical friends and family asked me what I thought he should do different, I didn't really have much. And then these two articles came out and, I thought, shed light on Dayton's strategy.<br /><br />You are right. He who blinks will lose. But the DFL will also lose on this point. The GOP does not care about government or its employees. They would've shutdown government on their income tax principle indefinitely. I had already heard rumors that they were digging in to wait until January's next session. The DFL cares, and so they cannot win, unless they are willing to shutdown the programs they care about and destroy the lives of their voting base. That is not political feasible.<br /><br />Politically, if the GOP takes the blame for the shutdown and not compromising and Dayton gets the tag of the one who wants to govern; 2012 could be a 2006 Redux. Dayton may not run again, which is why we rarely saw Bakk or Thiessen in the cameras. Dayton would take the fall if this went badly, setting one of them up for 2014. The GOP could barely get their caucus on board with this deal, which was clearly seen as horrible financing but in the middle of where the two sides wanted to spend. Depending on how they act in the 2012 Session, I think (or is it hope) the public will take notice and definitely give the Senate back to the DFL (won't be hard at all) and the House is clearly in play.<br /><br />I always love reading your insight, Professor. I only wish you had the time to post more. We need people like you and Larry Jacobs on TV constantly, giving the people an objective and academic perspective on the constant spin.<br /><br />Thanks!<br />Derek LarsenAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8638998837390550464.post-55908165356852470162011-07-15T18:45:43.065-05:002011-07-15T18:45:43.065-05:00I don't think Dayton "lost" at all. ...I don't think Dayton "lost" at all. He prevented thousands from being thrown off of state health plans; he prevented at least some property tax increases; he prevented additional tuition increases; he kept transit subsidies at reasonable levels; etc. What he did NOT get was a responsible way to pay for those costs. He accepted the REPUBLICAN's "plan", a plan that they never in a 100 years thought he'd accept -- that's why they offered it. He checkmated them because they couldn't reasonably say no to what THEY had proposed, even without the social policy ornaments. <br /><br />Dayton will "lose" only if the people reject him and reelect Republicans to control of both chambers in the 2012 elections. He and the DFL majority in 2013 will have a daunting task, to be sure, to balance the budget, but all this means is that the tax increases they would have voted in 2011 if they were in control will have to be enacted then. (And, the DFL will benefit from whatever savings the Republican "reforms" may garner during 2011-12, savings they'd probably never have been able to find for themselves.)<br /><br />Of course, if the 2012 election returns a Republican majority to both houses, passes the anti-marriage amendment, and against Obama, then and only then can we say that Dayton lost this battle.<br /><br />I do agree with you, though, that "Dayton cared more about the government and Minnesota than did the Republicans." I think (hope) that Minnesotans of all political stripes will recognize this to be true and will continue to support him into the future.Paul Lhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03483071863453025925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8638998837390550464.post-33825347235981942452011-07-15T14:40:21.096-05:002011-07-15T14:40:21.096-05:00I have to wonder if Mr. Dayton could redeem himsel...I have to wonder if Mr. Dayton could redeem himself and negotiate for the next biennium, some tax reform. Which would involve State Economist Tom Stinson's proposal to lower and broaden the sales tax. Our three legged stool of revenue; income, property and sales tax. It looks to be that the sales tax "leg" is shorter than the other two legs. I know that Tom Baak has been an advocate of this position as well. Or is Governor Dayton a "lame duck" for the rest of his term as ProfD Schultz implies?Emeryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00523849258546459342noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8638998837390550464.post-4921928502409948272011-07-15T14:12:35.545-05:002011-07-15T14:12:35.545-05:00I am not sure what Dayton should have differently....I am not sure what Dayton should have differently. Maybe,as I said in my blog, he wins the moral high ground by conceding is smart politics. However, he won nil with this deal, essentially saying the first two years of his term are over. He haws to hope 2012 changes the political landscape for him. He also alienated many with this deal. Finally, I agree with Steve that Dayton needed to change his messaging.ProfDSchultzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14428175737629801650noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8638998837390550464.post-49389907164411162822011-07-15T11:43:28.517-05:002011-07-15T11:43:28.517-05:00>>It is hard to negotiate with suicide bombe...>>It is hard to negotiate with suicide bombers.<br /><br />It is hard to maintain a civil society when the principled opposition are described as "suicide bombers."David Grayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11966977894876326659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8638998837390550464.post-43123933137424777452011-07-15T11:03:35.540-05:002011-07-15T11:03:35.540-05:00It is hard to negotiate with suicide bombers. Prof...It is hard to negotiate with suicide bombers. Prof. Schultz's remark that Dayton blinked because he was less willing to accept the continuing damage that was being done to the state is, I think, correct.<br /><br />But I don't see it as a cave, just a grim nod to political reality.<br /><br />Dayton's mistake may have been describing his plan to raise taxes on upper income earners as "tax the rich," going all the way back to the campaign, when I first heard it in 2009. It may have been a popular phrase with the populist wing of the DFL, it was a jarring reference that didn't play too well in the middle. I think he would have done better had he talked about tax fairness to advocate for the same thing.Stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07969988452643430382noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8638998837390550464.post-44952570197084919522011-07-15T10:17:15.279-05:002011-07-15T10:17:15.279-05:00Contrary to most DFL and Republican analysis Dayto...Contrary to most DFL and Republican analysis Dayton showed himself, at least narrowly, to be wiser than is generally thought to be the case. When he initiated the shutdown he was in a strong position politically as the general perception, right or wrong, was that he had offered more compromise than had the legislature. But as the shutdown went on his position was undermined by the willingness of the legislature to pass a "lights on" bill which left him as the sole promoter of a shutdown. This had started to bite, especially outstate, and his position was deteriorating. He wisely cut his losses before things got worse for the DFL and got a couple of face saving gestures as conditions for accepting the Republicans June offer. You can knock him for lack of foresight but his tactical sense was pretty good in this instance.David Grayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11966977894876326659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8638998837390550464.post-72250567509099947392011-07-14T22:32:19.672-05:002011-07-14T22:32:19.672-05:00Professor, I'd love to hear what Dayton should...Professor, I'd love to hear what Dayton should have done instead of what he did today? You never mentioned what he should have done to end the stalemate??saukheraldreporterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12735593713622698108noreply@blogger.com